2022 could be the East Bay's greatest election season ever
Campaigns for DA, sheriff, and county supervisor lead the way
Let’s face it. We’ve had some stinkers recently when it comes to elections in the East Bay. Incumbency is a powerful tool up and down the ballot in most years. But a confluence of factors, including the near-end of the first wave of 12-year term limits in the state Legislature, retirements, and tragedy, will make the 2022 election cycle one of the most interesting ever and potentially game-changing for the decade ahead.
Not since the 1998 election cycle triggered by Rep. Ron Dellums’ sudden retirement and Barbara Lee’s ascension to Congress, in addition, to four other special elections, has the East Bay political landscape been thrown up in the air like it will be this year. So many with long-simmering political ambitions now have several outlets for higher office within the next 11 months and many are ready to jump at a chance to grab the brass ring. Here are the three of the seven most interesting races to watch in the East Bay in 2022 (Read the rest of the list in Tuesday’s newsletter):
1. ALAMEDA COUNTY DA
No race has the potential for completely changing how law enforcement is applied in Alameda County more than the wide-open race to succeed Nancy O’Malley at the district attorney’s office. O’Malley won a hard-fought race in 2018 against Oakland attorney Pamela Price that was closer than a 20-point spread would indicate. Last May, O’Malley announced she would not run for election. Price never really stopped campaigning and is viewed as a top-tier candidate among four current candidates. Four years ago, Price promised to clean house at the DA’s office, if elected. It’s a promise most believe she will keep, if successful this time around. Her progressive politics makes her a strong favorite in Oakland and Berkeley, but a potential liability everywhere else in the county. That’s how the 2018 June primary played out and it doesn’t appear like Price is going to adjust her leftwing rhetoric for the rest of the county. Much of Price’s stances are buoyed by the Black Lives Matter movement. Her advantage may be muted this year since her three challengers are also Black. This race may come down to voters choosing whether they want a progressive with no experience or two candidates already working in the DA’s office. Terry Wiley and Jimmie Wilson are likely to present a version of the status quo to voters over the next six months. Seth Steward, chief of staff for Oakland Councilmember Dan Kalb, could provide a middle option for voters concerned with Price’s politics and wary of someone who might adhere to O’Malley’s doctrines.
2. ALAMEDA COUNTY SUPERVISOR, DISTRICT 3
Nobody would have ever believed Alameda County Supervisor Wilma Chan’s District would be up for grabs in June 2022. But several were already rumored to be putting the infrastructure in place to run for the seat sometime in the next four years. Chan’s death by a motorist in early November left many scrambling to seek one of the most coveted offices in the county. Not only is the pay pretty good, but a seat on the Alameda County Board of Supervisors is akin to an appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court. You either retire, quit because of a meth addiction, or pass away. The person who takes over for Chan on a permanent basis will not likely change the calculus on the very liberal Board of Supervisors, but they will have big shoes to fill. Nobody has officially signaled they will seek the District 3 seat that covers areas in and around Oakland Chinatown, Alameda, San Leandro, and San Lorenzo. This campaign could be brutal because of the stakes and the artificial prerequisite that grew out of the appointment process that the next person to represent District 3 should be an Asian American woman. Alameda Councilmember Malia Vella and Oakland Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas fit the bill, as does state Controller Betty Yee and former Alameda Councilmember Lena Tam. Alameda County Assessor Phong La only fits half the prerequisite as does Oakland Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan. All are rumored to be contemplating runs. Unless state Attorney General Rob Bonta attempts to coalesce the entire establishment to support a single candidate, as he did with Dave Brown’s appointment to replace Chan as a placeholder, this race is certain to head to a November winner-take-all election.
3. ALAMEDA COUNTY SHERIFF-CORONER
Nobody is more singularly loathed by progressives in Alameda County more than Sheriff-Coroner Gregory Ahern. To them, he is a proxy for President Trump. Ahern even famously praised Trump’s election in letter to then-U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Ahern supporters say the letter was only meant to curry favor with the new administration. Ahern has never faced a legitimate opponent since being appointed to the office in 2007. No other incumbent in the entire county has more negatives than Ahern. He’s been strongly criticized for inmates death and deputy misconduct at Santa Rita Jail in Dublin. His founding and operation of the law enforcement training and trade convention known as Urban Shield, along with being an advocate for the militarization of local police departments, are also frequent criticisms. Yet, Ahern is still a favorite to win re-election. The only thing standing in the way of this outcome may be Ahern. The early interest in the seat shown by some under his command indicate that, like O’Malley, Ahern was leaning toward retirement. He reportedly had grave concerns about where the sheriff’s office might head under new leadership and jumped into the race. Two women are currently in the race. Yesenia Sanchez is a division commander in the sheriff’s office. Keep an eye on Sanchez, if only because she hired Doug Linney as her consultant. When it comes to messaging with a deft touch nobody is better than Linney. JoAnn Walker has been in the race since November 2020. Early on, Walker partnered with Pamela Price but that union apparently soured. It’s not clear what Walker’s messaging is other than repeating the same email pitch for the last several months. Messaging will be important here because Ahern is simply unlikable. He might argue voters want toughness and stability in the sheriff’s office and he would be correct, but will they see Clint Eastwood or a old white guy with RBF (Resting Bitch Face)?
—Read the second half of the Top 7 most interesting races in Tuesday’s newsletter.
ELECTION ‘22 WATCH
—DA MONEYBALL—Ever since Alameda Count District Attorney Nancy O’Malley announced she would not run for re-election last May those watching this race’s early contour have focused primarily on perennial candidate Pamela Price, and O’Malley’s lieutenants Terry Wiley and Jimmie Wilson. But a fourth candidate could very be a dark horse. Seth Steward, chief of staff to Oakland Councilmember Dan Kalb, officially joined the race on Oct. 25. Steward also served at the San Francisco District Attorney’s office under George Gascon. In a tweet on New Year’s Day, Steward said his campaign has raised over $100,000, as of the Dec. 31 campaign finance filing deadline. How much money is currently in this race is not yet fully known at this point. What we officially know is Price reported $124,240 through June 30. Wilson reported $109,344 , and Wiley reported $49,598 during the same period. Steward’s end-of-year haul should, at least, put him in the campaign financing conversation with his opponents as the June 7 primary kicks into high gear.
—AD20 FIELD FORMING—In the open 20th Assembly District, Liz Ortega-Toro has opened a campaign committee in the race to replace Assemblymember Bill Quirk, according the state secretary of state’s office. Quirk announced he would not seek re-election last month. Ortega-Toro, the head of the influential Alameda Labor Council, previously eyed a run for last year’s 18th Assembly District special election. There was also chatter that she was interested in replacing Wilma Chan at the Alameda County Board of Supervisors. She joins Registered Nurse Jennifer Esteen, and possibly two members of the Dublin City Council—Mayor Melissa Hernandez and Councilmember Shawn Kumagai.
—JOINING THE PARTY—Alfred Twu, Berkeley architect and known commodity within the Alameda County Democratic Party, filed an intent to challenge AC Transit At-Large Director Joel Young…
Fremont Councilmember Teresa Keng originally intended to run for the 20th Assembly District, but state districting commission had other plans. No problem. Keng says, instead, she will challenge Assemblymember Alex Lee in the new 24th Assembly District. Former Assemblymember Kansen Chu is also running.
—CANDIDATE FORUM—Alameda County Sheriff-Coroner virtual candidate forum hosted by Livermore Indivisible, Sunday, Jan. 9, 1:30 p.m. Register for the webinar here.
NEWS BRIEFING
—The Associated Press has the staple of New Year’s journalism—an article about new state law coming into effect. Notably, California becomes the first state to mandate a $15 an hour minimum wage for businesses with 25 or more employees.
—Oakland logged a disturbing 134 homicide last year and the scourge of gun violence appears to be carrying over to 2022. Oakland’s first homicide occurred at around 9 p.m. on New Year’s night, KRON reports.
—A San Leandro police officer shot two suspects late Sunday night allegedly attempting to break into a cannabis dispensary on Fairway Drive near Kaiser San Leandro, the East Bay Times reports.
—KTVU anchorman Frank Somerville was arrested last Thursday in downtown Oakland on suspicion of DUI, the East Bay Times reports. Somerville was taken off the air last year after appearing to slur his words during a telecast. He returned and ignited turmoil after he stood against the lack of news coverage for Black girls and women in missing persons cases. The act brought support for the NAACP and a San Leandro councilmember urged for a proclamation in Somerville’s honor.
ON THE AGENDA
—SAN LEANDRO—The City Council is moving towards eliminating parking minimums for residential and commercial uses in hopes of freeing up space for public transit options. A public hearing will be held at Tuesday’s meeting. The council will also honor Wilma Chan with a proclamation and move to appoint a new vice mayor for 2022.
—ALAMEDA—A plan for the Encinal Terminals waterfront site near Buena Vista Avenue is making yet another return to the City Council chambers on Tuesday night. The proposal still hopes to construct a mixed-use development and marina with 589 units of housing, including 79 for affordable housing. The proposal was first submitted in 2017, but the developer later deemed the project not viable.