2022 Year-In-Review: Alameda County craved new ideas for public safety; labor unions fueled progressive wave; election integrity questioned
‘Perhaps, it wasn’t the message of rising crime that was the problem, but the messengers?’
—The past year in East Bay politics was dominated by an election few could have predicted. Upsets, some historic, were common in 2022 elections in both June and November. Do the results mean a changing of the guard is afoot in Alameda County or is the electorate is in the midst of significant realignment?
—Crime, as predicted by many, was a major issue on the campaign trails and at city halls across the East Bay. Curiously, those touting tough-on-crime rhetoric mostly failed at the ballot box. Perhaps, it wasn’t the message of rising crime that was the problem, but the messengers?
—If there was a big winner on Election Day, it was clearly labor unions. Millions were spent on candidates in up-for-grabs seats in the 20th Assembly District and 10th State Senate District, in addition, to Oakland’s mayoral race. Even in the face of millions more in campaign expenditures for pro-business and real estate friendly candidates, labor unions in Alameda County flexed their muscle.
—They proved a campaign isn’t only about money, but people. Labor’s foot soldiers and phone jockeys were the difference. For their efforts, most of Alameda County will be represented in the state Legislature by two young women hailing from minority groups historically unrepresented in Sacramento, in addition, to a young Asian American mayor in Oakland.
—Sheng Thao, that same young mayor from Oakland, will inherit the fate of one of the largest public works projects in the U.S. Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf got the Howard Terminal ballpark project as far as she could. The project still appears on track, but the fact the go-ahead run has been sitting on third base is worrisome. While the Oakland At’s struggled on the field this season, there were several big moments in the quest for a waterfront ballpark.
—The city and A’s notched a big win at the Bay Conservation and Development Commission last June, and a nagging lawsuit filed by opposition to the project fizzled in court. A large federal grant is still pending for the project and Major League Baseball has issued a January 2024 deadline for getting the ballpark approved. Meanwhile, Las Vegas still hovers over the project, but they increasingly appear to be a red herring in this entire story with no clear site on the table and no current pledges of public money.
—Affordable housing and homelessness continues to vex not only Alameda County, but the entire state. The approval and production of new housing showed positive signs in many East Bay cities, but the expected output still isn’t enough to come close to solving the problem. Oakland voters tried, though, approving a $850 million housing bond last November. However, Berkeley voters fell just short of passing their $650 million housing bond.
—This fall, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the end of the Covid-19 state of emergency will be Feb. 28, 2023. The news set off great concern in the East Bay over the fate of struggling renters. Housing advocates repeatedly warned a “tsunami of evictions” is on the horizon if local governments and the county don’t act quickly. Alameda County’s eviction moratorium was held in place this year despite growing frustration from local landlords. Something, though, will budge in early 2023.
—Alameda County’s eviction moratorium is tied to the state of emergency. This means the warned avalanche of evictions could begin in late April 2023, if nothing is done by the county. The problem for renters, though, is the composition of the Alameda County Board of Supervisors will flip to a pro-landlord position starting next week.
—Alameda County’s congressional delegation of Reps. Barbara Lee, Eric Swalwell, and Ro Khanna, all appeared restless and with an eye on promotions. Lee’s tenure in Oakland’s 12th District is likely nearing an end much sooner than later. But Lee’s name has repeatedly being mentioned as a potentially replacement for Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who is likely to retire prior to 2024. Khanna has been raising trial balloons for some time about a run to replace Feinstein, but also a run for president as the successor to Bernie Sanders in 2024 or 2028.
—Swalwell, meanwhile, hasn’t hinted about runs for the U.S. Senate or president recently, but knowing his history, don’t rule it out. But Swalwell continued to throw shade at House Republicans and Donald Trump in 2022. Swalwell received death threats for his efforts. Likely Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has warned that he intends to boot Swalwell from the House Intelligence Committee.
—One of the first East Bay Insiders Newsletter declared that 2022 could by the “greatest election season ever.” That’s up for debate, but it certainly came close. At the start of the year, Pamela Price’s prospects for becoming Alameda County’s next district attorney were good. It was just a matter of whether she would somehow blow it for herself. She didn’t and the county awaits the county’s first Black DA, and certainly its most progressive.
—Nobody in their right mind would have predicted the monumental destruction of mighty Alameda County Sheriff Greg Ahern. Yesenia Sanchez’s upset of Ahern would have been a shock if she had achieved it through a November runoff. That Sanchez obliterated the long-time sheriff outright in June with almost 53 percent of the vote and by 20 points was truly mind blowing. In my book, it’s the greatest upset in Alameda County electoral history. It’s the Miracle on Ice and a few other sports upsets twisted into one.
—There isn’t a consensus about what it means that Alameda County voters so clearly bucked the establishment for two untested heads of public safety. Price and Sanchez ran strong campaigns, but their main opponents—Terry Wiley in the DA’s race and Ahern in the sheriff’s race—poorly articulated their vision for quelling a perceived rise in crime.
—Both repeatedly touted their experience. What they didn’t understand is that Alameda County voters actually viewed experience and what it had done to fight crime with little success as a liability. Voters are restive. They want to feel safe again. For that, Price and Sanchez have the hardest jobs in all of local politics. Voters wanted change and if they see the status quo at the DA and Sheriff’s office, they will quickly have buyer’s remorse.
—Candidates who once advocated for defunding police were not punished by the electorate. Defunders like Sheng Thao in Oakland, Nikki Bas Fortunato in Oakland’s District 2 council race, Janani Ramachandran in Oakland’s District 4 council race, and Celina Reynes in San Leandro’s District 1 council race, were among many who were victorious in November. Voters were clearly worried about crime, but for some reason previously calling to defund the police was not a disqualifying idea for many.
—In addition to Sanchez and Price, we saw upsets in several places. Alysse Castro, notched a huge upset in June by upending incumbent Alameda County Superintendent of Schools L.K. Monroe. Lena Tam upset Rebecca Kaplan for a seat on the Alameda County Board of Supervisors. In fact, this race was one of the few in which crime was the determining factor. Tam successfully labeled Kaplan a defunder and used negative images of Kaplan’s Oakland to diminish her campaign.
—Ranked choice voting (RCV) also hastened a few surprising outcomes. Echoing the first use of RCV in 2010, Oakland and San Leandro voters gave the most first-place votes to a candidate who ultimately did not win the election. Loren Taylor had more first-place votes than Thao, but lost due to RCV’s tabulations in a very close race. Same in San Leandro where Bryan Azevedo gained more first-place support than Juan Gonzalez, but lost the election. Both races came down to a difference of less than one percent.
—The Oakland NAACP called for a recount of the Oakland mayoral race after it was certified in early December. But no group was able to foot the estimated bill of $21,000 per day to conduct the recount. No automatic recount provision exists in Oakland or the county. This is all leads us to what could be the biggest 2022 story that bleeds into next year.
—On Wednesday, the Alameda County Registrar of Voters announced that it had incorrectly tabulated all races using ranked choice voting. A redo of races in Albany, Berkeley, Oakland, and San Leandro found no change in the results, except one. The November results were certified to show that incumbent Oakland School Board Trustee Mike Hutchinson had lost. But the new results show he, in fact, won. This is great news for Hutchinson, but bad news for Alameda County voters.
—This is not the first major mistake made by Alameda County Registrar Tim Dupuis during this election cycle and will only give more ammunition to a growing group of opponents that unite the entire political spectrum. Questions about the veracity and integrity of the entire November election will certainly persist for some time.
—This could be a big mess. Oakland and San Leandro’s mayoral races had razor-thin margins. San Leandro’s District 5 race was decided by a scant 32 votes. With yesterday’s news, how anybody be sure the real winners of these races have taken or are about to take the oath of office in coming days?