A New Year

Legislative musical chairs, political positioning, and early money moves are setting up what could be the East Bay’s most consequential election cycle in years

Jan 05, 2026

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☕️MORNING BUZZ

Vol. VI, No. 1,164

—The State Legislature reconvenes today for the first day of the new legislative session. Although the East Bay’s legislative delegation has remained relatively stable in recent years, that calm may not last through the end of 2026.

Election 2026 is shaping up to be a potential watershed moment for East Bay politics, evoking comparisons to the sweeping realignment of federal and state offices last seen in 1998. The latest Election 2026 news is featured in today’s newsletter.

The catalyst is Rep. Eric Swalwell’s decision to leave Congress and run for governor, opening the 14th Congressional District seat in June. That single vacancy could trigger a chain reaction across multiple levels of government.

State Sen. Aisha Wahab and BART Director Melissa Hernández are both seeking Swalwell’s seat. Wahab’s expected formal entry into the race would leave her 10th State Senate District open in the June primary. If Hernandez were to enter and prevail, her departure would prompt a special election for her BART Board seat.

In this cascading scenario, Assemblymember Alex Lee could run to succeed Wahab in the State Senate, which would in turn open his 24th Assembly District seat. Depending on who else jumps into the fray, the permutations quickly multiply.

—The last time the East Bay faced this level of political musical chairs was in 1998, after Rep. Ron Dellums resigned from Congress midterm.

That decision set off a succession of three special elections and two runoffs that reshaped Alameda County politics for a generation.

Then–State Sen. Barbara Lee won Dellums’ congressional seat.
Assemblymember Don Perata captured Lee’s vacated Senate seat.
Audie Bock, a little-known Green Party candidate, stunned a field of seasoned contenders to win Perata’s Assembly seat.

All three contests were marked by extremely low voter turnout, a key factor in Bock’s upset victory, along with a dose of political controversy.

Most infamously, the California Democratic Party attempted to boost turnout for Democrat Elihu Harris by mailing voters coupons redeemable for a free chicken and potato salad dinner if they returned with a voter stub showing they had cast a ballot. While legal at the time, the tactic sparked accusations of vote-buying and drew sharp criticism for being demeaning to Black voters in the communities targeted by the mailers.

The East Bay once again finds itself on the brink of a familiar dynamic: one high-profile decision at the top could scramble seats up and down the ballot. Whether 2026 becomes a footnote or a defining moment will depend on who jumps in—and how voters respond to yet another round of political musical chairs.

—411 ON THE 510—Become an East Bay Insiders subscriber today and get FULL ACCESS to the inside scoop every weekday morning at 6 a.m. It’s what the insiders read.

🙏To all the new subscribers who joined the East Bay Insiders last year and the 3 million visitors in 2024 . Thank you for your support!

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—More inside:

ELECTION 2026: Latest moves in the race for AD24, the local angle to California’s gubernatorial campaign, a new candidate for DA, Alameda mayors race begins to take shape, and big union money is backing Oakland’s parcel tax measure.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE: Contributions covering Dec. 18 through Jan. 4, including Eric Swalwell’s continued success in attracting donations to his gubernatorial campaign, especially from Hollywood.

🎙️EAST BAY INSIDERS PODCAST

—ROUNDING OUT 2025—Catch up on the East Bay Insiders Podcast’s year-end episodes; including the 3rd Annual Insidey Awards, honoring the highs and lows in East Bay politics; and our Year-In-Review episode with me, Dan Mendoza, and Trishala Vinnakota.