A night of surprises, but a lot more vote-counting to come
Sheriff Ahern is trailing, Price leads DA race, Kaplan tops for county supervisor; tight superintendent of schools contest
ELECTION 2022
Listen to an encore performance of last night’s East Bay Insiders Live! Election Night Results Show below. I stayed on the air for nearly four hours analyzing the early results, along with an exceptional roster of guests. Special thanks to the Insiders: Jim Oddie, Bill Harrison, Kevin Dowling, Emeryville Mayor John Bauters, Ed Hernandez, and Ray Perez AKA “Dr. Death,” the former Oakland Raiders superfan turned vice-chair of the Yolo County Republican Party. (Click on the link in the tweet below.)
FIVE EARLY TAKES
Early returns indicate Alameda County voters want change in countywide law enforcement.
Big IE money was spent unwisely in almost every instance in East Bay races
Nevertheless, the spigot of money will be even larger in the fall with this primary possibly producing six runoffs/top two November elections.
East Bay Republicans are lurking just outside the top two in three legislative races.
Alameda County superintendent race might be a bad sign for school board members running in the fall.
—UNPREDICTABLE PRIMARY—Primary Election Night in the East Bay yielded a number of surprising storylines, but no definitive results just yet as large numbers of late-arriving ballots are counted over the next few days.
—DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES? MAYBE?—There was no more surprising early result on Tuesday night than the potential massive upset of long-time Alameda County Sheriff Greg Ahern. Expected to possibly exceed a majority of the vote in the primary and avoid a November runoff, it is Ahern who may booted from office in June. However, a November runoff still seems imminent.
—Alameda County Sheriff’s Commander Yesenia Sanchez has an early 10-point advantage over Ahern, putting her at 46 percent of the vote, just four points from a majority. Adding San Francisco police offer JoAnn Walker’s 16 points, more than 63 percent of Alameda County primary voters chose someone other than Ahern to be sheriff.
—It’s a stunning development in a race that saw Sanchez struggle to fundraise and gain much attention until the last few weeks of the campaign. East Bay progressives have long sought to unseat Ahern, who had until this year, ran unopposed despite being loathed by local liberals.
—PRICE IS RIGHT—As San Franciscans overwhelmingly voted last night to recall progressive District Attorney Chesa Boudin, Alameda County voters appear leaning toward giving Pamela Price, a progressive DA candidate of their own, first-place in the primary. Price leads the field with nearly 40 percent of the vote, followed by Alameda County Assistant DA Terry Wiley at 30 percent. In what became a theme of Election Night, it appears negative campaigning backfired in this primary. DA candidate Jimmie Wilson’s explosive hit on Wiley a month ago did not move the needle much, leaving him with 20 percent of the vote.
—An early look at voting maps in Alameda County show Price’s strength remains in progressive Oakland and Berkeley, but still weak elsewhere in the county. Price’s 40 percent is similar to the 42 percent she received during her unsuccessful run for DA in 2018.
—PRIMARY NIGHT KAP—Oakland Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan performed well at the polls, but not well enough to avoid a November runoff in the Alameda County District 3 Board of Supervisors race. Kaplan sits at 39 percent, followed by former Alameda Councilmember Lena Tam, at 30 percent. David Kakishiba and Surlene Grant are a distant third- and fourth-place, meaning a Kaplan/Tam runoff in November is likely.
—TIGHT TILT FOR SUPER—Sheriff Greg Ahern might not be the only countywide incumbent to be denied re-election. Alameda County Superintendent of Schools L.K. Monroe and challenger Alysse Castro appear destined for a nail-biter over the next few days. Monroe narrowly leads Castro 51 percent 49 percent in a tally that has slowly narrowed in Castro’s favor. The potential for Castro eventually taking the lead is high. The last batch of ballots returned during the final week of the campaign could tilt Castro’s way after a strong late push by her campaign and supporters. A Monroe defeat could be a signal that East Bay school board incumbents may face the wrath of voters still fuming about the pandemic.
—BOARD OF ED BLOWOUT—In the Tri-Valley’s Alameda County Board of Education race in Area 7, however, former Pleasanton Councilmember Cheryl Cook-Kallio appears to be the lone candidate on the East Bay ballot that can breathe a sigh of relief after last night’s returns. Cook-Kallio, at 52 percent of the vote, holds a commanding lead over Kate Dao, the charter school candidate strongly supported by A’s owner John Fisher. Eric Dillie is third. Only a plurality of the primary vote is needed for victory, meaning there is no runoff in this race.
—Within the last month, some East Bay races saw an avalanche of Independent Expenditure Committee spending unlike any primary in recent memory. The early takeaway is all that money may have been wasted in every case, except, possibly two instances. A’s owner John Fisher and his family spent over $500,000 in support of Dao in the Alameda County Board of Education race and she currently sits 25 points out of first-place.
—UNBE-LEE-VABLE—But no other race in the region and state is witnessing a bigger blunder by special interest than in the 24th Assembly District contest. Housing Providers for Responsible Solutions poured more than $1.1 million over the past six weeks into defeating Assemblymember Alex Lee. Early returns show the battered Lee will advance to a November runoff with almost 40 percent of the vote. But a look further into the numbers show the real estate IE’s actions may also be leading Lee to a certain November win. That’s because the IE betted on supporting the wrong challenger to Lee’s re-election, thereby elevating Republican Bob Brunton into second, where he stands today by a hair over Kansen Chu. The IE spent nearly $400,000 on Teresa Keng’s campaign, but she is currently languished in fourth with 11 percent. Lee faced Brunton in 2020 and pummeled him at the polls.
—GOP LURKS IN THIRD—In the 10th State Senate District, Lily Mei and Aisha Wahab are headed toward a likely rematch in the fall that could be one of the top three most-expensive IE races in the entire state. But IE spending in the primary was also large, but the results inconclusive. IEs backed by real estate interests spent big for Mei, as did labor unions for Wahab. The nearly $2.5 million in IE spending may have done little to change the primary’s likely result. But there’s still votes to be counted as Republican Paul Pimentel slowly creeps closer to Wahab for second place. Perhaps Opportunity PAC, the IE that spent heavily to oppose Mei made a strategic mistake by sending two late mailers hoping to attract Republicans to vote for Pimentel?
—ANOTHER GOP LURKING—The spending in the 20th Assembly District was also large in the primary. Dublin Councilmember Shawn Kumagai was a major benefactor of all the IE spending, but how well that money was spent is still inconclusive at this point. Liz Ortega leads a four-person field with over 31 percent, followed by Kumagai at 25 percent, but Republican Joe Grcar was gaining on Kumagai for second at 23 percent. All four candidates including Jennifer Esteen currently have more than 20 percent of the vote.
—D.C. DEM DOMINATION—There is not much to see in Alameda County’s four congressional races. Incumbent Reps. Barbara Lee, Eric Swalwell, Ro Khanna, and Mark DeSaulnier are cruising to very large primary victories. However, two of the four are headed to possible rematches from 2020 General Election. Khanna will face Republican Ritesh Tandon in November. Two years ago, Khanna was victorious in runaway fashion, but not before Tandon levied some heated rhetoric against Khanna for his stance in favor of Indo-Pakistani relations. Swalwell could be headed to a rematch against Republican Alison Hayden, the Tri-Valley member of QAnon who lost to him two years ago. However, another Republican Tom Wong is closely tailing her for the second-place. Lee will face a Republican who is known to Alameda politicos. Republican Stephen Slauson ran three times against then-Assemblymember Rob Bonta and lost badly. Slauson is headed to another blowout in November against Lee.
RESULTS
ALAMEDA COUNTY DISTRICT ATTORNEY
Pamela Price 39.81%
Terry Wiley 30.85%
Jimmie Wilson 20.59%
Seth Steward 8.75%
ALAMEDA COUNTY SHERIFF
Yesenia Sanchez 46.80%
Greg Ahern 36.40%
JoAnn Walker 16.80%
ALAMEDA COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS-DISTRICT 3
Rebecca Kaplan 39.98%
Lena Tam 30.03%
David Kakishiba 18.48%
Surlene Grant 12.52%
ALAMEDA COUNTY SUPERINTENDENT OF SCHOOLS
L.K. Monroe 51.71%
Alysse Castro 48.29%
ALAMEDA COUNTY BOARD OF EDUCATION-AREA 7
Cheryl Cook-Kallio 52.82%
Kate Dao 24.06%
Eric Dillie 23.11%
10TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
Lily Mei 35.4%
Aisha Wahab 25.2%
Paul Pimentel 22.4%
Jamal Khan 7.7%
Raymond Liu 5.7%
Jim Canova 3.5%
20TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Liz Ortega 31.05%
Shawn Kumagai 25.02%
Joe Grcar 23.13%
Jennifer Esteen 20.80%
24TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Alex Lee 39.9%
Bob Brunton 21.8%
Kansen Chu 18.1%
Teresa Keng 11.0%
Lan Diep 9.1%
ALAMEDA-MEASURE B (Alameda USD facilities bond measure)
YES 53.91% (Needs 55% to pass)
NO 46.09%
OAKLAND-MEASURE (Library parcel tax)
YES 80.39% (Needs 2/3rds to pass)
NO 19.61%
POSSIBLE NOVEMBER REMATCHES AT THIS MOMENT
ALCO SHERIFF: Sanchez vs. Ahern
ALCO DA: Price vs. Wiley
ALCO BOARD OF SUPERVISORS-DIST. 3: Kaplan vs. Tam
AD20: Ortega vs. Kumagai
AD24: Lee vs. Brunton
SD10: Mei vs. Wahab
CA12: Lee vs. Slauson
CA15: Swalwell vs. Hayden
CA17: Khanna vs. Tandon