PROLOGUE
Somewhat similar to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors race in District 3, long-time Hayward Assemblymember Bill Quirk’s decision last December to not run for re-election left potential candidates in the 20th Assembly District scrambling to put together a primary campaign in short order. There had been rumors of Quirk’s retirement for the past the four years. Speculation was also rising that Quirk, a Democrat, could be vulnerable to a challenge from a well-funded progressive candidate. Quirk defeated an underfunded progressive named Alexis Villalobos in 2020 by nearly 14 points, but a larger spread should be expected from a then-four-term assemblymember against a member of his own party. Redistricting also comes into play in the 20th District, which maintained its center in Hayward, but omitted Fremont, and added San Leandro, Dublin and Pleasanton. It’s a change that could affect the outcome of this race.
MEET THE CANDIDATES
LIZ ORTEGA
As secretary-treasurer of the Alameda Labor Council, Ortega has connections to a wide-range of union contacts and is the movement’s de facto labor leader in the county. Over the past years, she’s clearly been itching to make a move to public elected office. Ortega showed early interest last year for running in the 18th Assembly District special election, and was a name mentioned as a possible appointment to Alameda County Supervisor Wilma Chan’s seat. She did not enter either race before jumping into the 20th District race last December. Although Ortega is typically associated with the labor movement at-large in Alameda County, she is the San Leandro candidate in this race. Unsurprisingly, Ortega’s focus has been on creating high-paying jobs and creating more housing.
SHAWN KUMAGAI
While serving his first term on the Dublin City Council, Kumagai got a taste of the state Legislature acting as Tri-Valley Assemblymember Rebecca Bauer-Kahan’s district director. Kumagai has a background in the Navy and is Dublin’s first-ever LGBT elected official. He gained notoriety in 2019 after proposing the rainbow Pride flag be flown at Dublin City Hall. The idea was harshly panned by some his colleagues and outrage against some of his council colleagues from across the East Bay ensued. At the beginning of this primary race, there was some consensus that Kumagai was friendly to labor during his short time on the Dublin City Council. However, he’s accepting a large number of contributions this primary campaign from groups typically not viewed as labor-friendly. Think the Ubers and real estate interests of the world. Kumagai supports expanding vocational programs and reforming the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) to hasten the pace of new housing.
JENNIFER ESTEEN
This race’s surprising top fundraiser got a head start on the field after declaring her campaign for the 20th District well before Quirk announced his retirement. Esteen is the most progressive candidate in this race by a hair and amassed her war chest without contributions from corporations. She is a Registered Nurse specializing in psychiatric care and her soulful rhetoric about homelessness and the plight of the mentally ill shows it. Esteen is also part of SEIU’s leadership, which is why in a race heavily shaded with labor, she has the powerful union on her side. During the campaign, Esteen has spoke about passing a Green New Deal in California and linking homelessness with health care.
JOE GRCAR
Four years ago, Grcar disliked the fact that Quirk was running unopposed in the primary, so he registered as an official write-in candidate, received 81 votes (0.1%), and advanced to the 2018 November General Election where he lost by 55 points. Grcar is back this cycle as the lone Republican in the field. Grcar is also a member of the Alameda County Republican Party. During the campaign he proposed creating a tunnel to connect traffic from West Dublin to the San Mateo-Hayward Bridge to alleviate traffic, in addition, to advocating for designating the entire bay shoreline as a state park.
PLOTLINES
Up until a month ago, the three Democrats diverged on few issues. There’s clear support for doing more to help solve the homelessness crisis, a push for quickening the pace of new housing, and support for the environment. Kumagai did raise eyebrows at a candidate forum in San Leandro when he wavered on whether he opposed charter. Many Democrats oppose charter schools. Then came the rise of Independent Expenditure Committees starting with a hefty $500,000 pledge to support Ortega’s efforts by the labor union AFSCME Local 3299. That announcement set off an arm race between union IEs and business-friendly special interests in favor of Kumagai, who, alone, has six supporting his campaign. So far, all the IEs have been mostly positive in tone. But the battle lines have been drawn. If there is a November matchup between Ortega and Kumagai this race could be one of the most expensive in the state this fall. Nearly $1.2 million combined has already been spent by IEs in this race.
PAST RESULTS
2020 JUNE PRIMARY
Bill Quirk (D) 42,606 votes (47.1%)
Alexis Villalobos (D) 19,900 votes (22.0%)
Son Nguyen (R) 18,410 votes (20.4%)
Vipan Bajwa (D) 9,463 votes (10.5%)
2020 NOVEMBER ELECTION
Bill Quirk (D) 100,105 votes (56.9%)
Alexis Villalobos (D) 75,672 votes (43.1%)
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
JENNIFER ESTEEN—Jan. 1-April 23
Cash on Hand $202,684
Cash IN $224,616
Cash OUT $161,717
Loans/Debts $21,687
Total Cash IN (2021-22) $393,757
Donor Type: Labor unions. Notable Donors: SEIU California State Council Small Contributor Cmte $9,700; SEIU Local 2015 State PAC $9,700; SEIU Local 721 $9,700; SEIU United Healthcare Workers West PAC $9,700; SEIU Local 1021 Candidate PAC $4,900; California Jewish PAC $4,900; Asian Pacific American Labor Alliance $4,900; SEIU Local 121 RN PAC $3,000; SEIU Local 521 Candidate PAC $2,500; SEIU Local 221 PAC Small Contributors Cmte $2,000. No in
Top Endorsers: SEIU California, Sierra Club, Our Revolution East Bay, Lateefah Simon, Jovanka Beckles, Alexis Villalobos, Surlene Grant, Cat Brooks.
Independent Expenditure Committees: SUPPORT-Oakland Rising Committee Sponsored by Center for Empowered Politics.
SHAWN KUMAGAI (D)—Jan. 1-April 23
Cash on Hand $163,239
Cash IN $240,457
Cash OUT $77,354
Loans/Debts $1,372
Total Cash IN (2021-22) $240,457
Donor Type: Real estate, tech, labor unions. Notable Donors: Northern California Carpenters Regional Council Small Contributor Cmte $9,700; Construction and General Laborers Local Union 304 PAC $9,700; Rebecca Bauer-Kahan for Assembly 2022 $4,900; John Gooding $4,900; Viejas Tribal Government $4,900; Asian Pacific Islander Leadership PAC $4,900; Laborers International Union of North American Local 89 PAC $4,900; Personal Insurance Federation of CA Agents and Employees PAC $4,900; Farmers Group Inc. PAC $4,900; California YIMBY Victory Fund $4,900; Fremont Real Estate Investment LLC $4,900; California Medical Association PAC $4,900; Dosanjh Real Estate Investment LLC $3,434; Dublin Real Estate LLC $3,434.
Top Endorsers: Betty Yee, Rebecca Bauer-Kahan, NorCal Carpenters, California API Legislative Caucus, LiUNA Local 304, California YIMBY, Housing Action Coalition, Equality California.
Independent Expenditure Committees: SUPPORT - Keep California Golden, Keeping Californians Working, Future PAC, California Dental Association Independent Expenditure PAC, Asian Pacific Islander Leadership PAC, Leaders for California Recovery.
LIZ ORTEGA (D)—Jan. 1-April 23
Cash on Hand $146,260
Cash IN $202,685
Cash OUT $134,109
Loans/Debts $0
Total Cash IN (2021-22) $228,775
Donor Type: Labor unions. Notable Donors: California Nurses Association PAC Small Contributor Cmte $9,700; California Teachers Association $9,700; State Building and Construction Trades Council of California $9,700; Operating Engineers Local 3 Statewide PAC $,9,700; Standing Cmte on Political Education of the California Labor Federation, AFL-CIO $9,700; AFSCME Small Contributor Cmte $9,700; United Nurses Assocation of California PAC $9,700; Bill Quirk for Assembly 2022 $4,900; California Teamsters Public Affairs Council $4,900; IBEW Local 595 $4,900.
Top Endorsers: Rob Bonta, Mia Bonta, Bill Quirk, Nancy Skinner, California Nurses Association, Calfiornia Teachers Association, Alameda Labor Council, Teamsters Joint Local 7l
Independent Expenditure Committees: SUPPORT-U.C. Berkeley Custodians, Cooks, Groundskeepers, and Nurse Assistants Supporting Liz Ortega for Assembly 2022, Sponsored by AFSCME Local 3299, East Bay Together.
JOE GRCAR (R)—Jan. 1-April 23
—No Report Filed—
PRIMARY OUTLOOK
Let’s start out by focusing on Republican Joe Grcar. Despite doing little in this race, he’s guaranteed at least 20 percent of the vote. In past 20th Assembly District primaries in which there was one Republican in the race, that candidate has garnered between 20 percent and 22 percent of the vote. This district is somewhat different because of redistricting but the inclusion of more progressive San Leandro is muted by the more moderate Tri-Valley. Grcar could be the kingmaker here and if Jennifer Esteen’s campaign is truly a dark horse, the percentage of the three Democrats will be lower and possibly veer close to Grcar’s baseline number. If Grcar is lucky enough to get into second place, the real benficiary will be who finishes first because the November matchup is guaranteed to be a rout. But there appears to be too much IE money backing Liz Ortega and Shawn Kumagai’s campaigns. IE mailers exponential increase the number of times their name, face, and message come before voters. There’s rumblings that the greater frequency of mailers from Kumagai’s campaign and the IEs over that of Ortega’s could tip put him in first place on Primary Day. Meanwhile, Esteen has run a strong first-time campaign. Her vigorous ground game has been noted by many East Bay insiders. If Villalobos’ progressive campaign against Quirk in 2020 actually revealed a district inching more to the left, then it would seem like Esteen should benefit this time around.
PREDICTION
Top Two: 1. Kumagai 2. Ortega.
ELECTION 2022
—We’re seeing some big late money coming in for two Alameda County candidates hoping to unseat incumbents. SEIU Local 1021 contributed $17,500 to Yesenia Sanchez’s bid to unseat Sheriff Greg Ahern, among a number of large donations to her campaign this week. Alameda County superintendent candidate Alysse Castro is getting help from several local teachers’ unions.
—Four new IEs are joined in support of 20th Assembly District candidate Shawn Kumagai this week. California Dental Association, Asian Pacific Islander Leadership PAC, Fighting for Our Future, and Leaders for California’s Recovery, combined, spent nearly $100,000 in his favor in just the past three days.
—Davita, the dialysis service company’s IE spent $140,000 in support of Lily Mei’s candidacy in the 10th State Senate District this week. But the expenditure has been blunted by Opportunity PAC, an IE that opposes Mei’s campaign. Silicon Valley JobsPAC, an IE backed by the California Chamber of Commerce, also spent $68,574 in support of Mei on Wednesday.
—San Leandro teachers are getting on board with Alameda County superintendent challenger Alysse Castro. San Leandro Teachers Advocating New Directions spent $47,781 on a mailer in support of her campaign. Pleasanton teachers are also supporting Castro. Association of Pleasanton Teachers PAC spent $8,000 for a mailer.
—Charter Public Schools Political Act ion Committee spent $41,697 on a mailer and digital ads in support of Alameda County Area 7 Board of Education candidate Kate Dao. Part of the expenditure was likely the mailer I reported about in yesterday’s newsletter. Also this week, the same IE spent another $20,000 on digital ads for Dao. The IE is backed by the Fisher family, which includes A’s owner John Fisher. The Fishers strongly support charter schools.
—I’ve been getting reports from the field that an unknown Alameda County District Attorney candidate is doing standard polling, not the push polling we saw earlier this month that turned out to be done by candidate Jimmie Wilson. But if Wilson did push polling before, perhaps this poll hopes to find out if the campaign’s dynamic mailer attacking opponent Terry Wiley did any damage?
—IAAF Local 55, the firefighters union for Oakland and many parts of Alameda County gave $5,000 to the Alameda County Democratic Central Committee on Wednesday.
—MONEYBALL—Here’s Form 497 Late Contributions for Alameda County races from Monday through Thursday: Terry Wiley (Alameda County District Attorney), UA Local 342 PAC Fund $5,000; Neil Goodhue of Pebble Beach... Jimmie Wilson (Alameda County District Attorney), Jay Baik of San Francisco $1,500; Raw Law LLP $1,000; George Wood of San Ramon $1,000; Lars Hansson of Alameda $1,000; Joseph Pernod of Sausalito $1,000; Richard Stone of Oakland… Pamela Price (Alameda County District Attorney), Rashidah Grinage of Oakland $1,025…
—Rebecca Kaplan (Alameda County Supervisor - District 3), SEIU Committee of Interns and Resident Physician PAC $5,000; Claycon Developers Corp $1,000; Unite Here Tip State and Local Fund $1,000… Lena Tam (Alameda County Supervisor - District 3), Haubert for Supervisor 2024 $1,000… David Kakishiba (Alameda County Supervisor - District 3), May Lee of Sacramento $1,000…
—Yesenia Sanchez (Alameda County Sheriff), SEIU Local 1021 $17,500; Skinner for Senate 2020 $3,500; Steamfitters Local 342 PAC Fund $2,000; Feng Wu of Modesto $1,500; Hua Bin He of San Ramon $1,500; KCT Food Service, Inc.KCT Food Service, Inc. $1,500; Alameda County Democratic Central Committee $2,000…
—L.K. Monroe (Alameda County Superintendent), Construction & General Laborers Local Union 304 PAC $1,800… Alysse Castro (Alameda County Superintendent) Oakland Not for Sale $4,000…Kate Dao (Alameda County Board of Education - Area 7), Thien-Kim Ngo of San Francisco, $5,000…
—Alameda Forward (Alameda USD bond measure), Construction & General Laborers Local Union 304 Issues Committee $5,000; Lathrop Construction Associates Inc. $5,000; Lincoln PTA $2,000.