Alameda County sheriff's race: Does Yesenia Sanchez have enough to beat Sheriff Ahern? There's signs that she does
AD20: San Leandro Dem Club rethinks endorsement policy after backing Esteen
ELECTION 2022
ALAMEDA COUNTY SHERIFF
—ENOUGH TO BEAT AHERN?—Yesenia Sanchez’s campaign for Alameda County sheriff appears to be gaining momentum at just the right time with less than a month before vote-by-mail ballots arrive in mailboxes. Establishment Democrats, progressives, and union labor look to be solidly behind her candidacy against entrenched Alameda County Sheriff Greg Ahern. But will it be enough to block Ahern from winning the election outright in June? Or is there enough support this spring to get Sanchez a second bite of the apple and a November runoff against Ahern?
—I’ve been skeptical about the chances for Ahern losing re-election. He may be deeply unpopular in areas like Oakland and Berkeley, but once you leave these progressive bastions, you will find that Ahern and law and order, in general, is quite popular in places like the Tri-Valley and Fremont areas. Of course, there’s reservations about his leadership when it comes to the number of inmate deaths at Santa Rita Jail in these places, but not enough to likely change their votes.
—Aside from a major scandal erupting involving Ahern, which is possible, it’s difficult to imagine how he loses even with the support Sanchez is receiving lately. But one way would be the powerful and charismatic combination of personality and messaging and Sanchez showed hints of it last weekend while appearing before Alameda County Democrats.
—Sanchez is offering a compelling message fit for the times. She told Alameda County Democrats that her candidacy represents change and as a woman she was able to overcome inequities that exist in law enforcement and the criminal justice system, as a whole. Sanchez also bluntly labeled Ahern as a Republican. Was this a hint that the campaign intends to place this debilitating moniker on Ahern over the next month or so?
—“Eighteen percent are Republican,” Sanchez said of Alameda County voters. “Those are the ones that will be voting for the incumbent.” She added that young people are energized by her campaign. “They have been frustrated for far too long and have been waiting for someone to have the nerve to challenge our incumbent sheriff.”
—Recall the Blue/Red contrasting worked beautifully for Assemblymember Rebecca Bauer-Kahan when she upset Republican Assemblymember Catharine Baker in the Tri-Valley four years ago.
—Sanchez’s message of struggle and then success may resonate with women voters in this county. In all honesty, Ahern’s rough-hewn, perhaps, stubborn persona is old school and only underscores Sanchez’s message for generational change. Recall that Sanchez works at Santa Rita Jail. Ahern is her boss. Sanchez told Alameda County Democrats that her campaign against Ahern has caused her “some hardships while at work.” A hostile workplace environment, along with occupational snubs, is a subject that voters, especially women, can match with their our personal experiences.
I have taken a huge risk as an internal candidate, stepping forward to be your agent of change. As a woman I will bring a different approach to policing. I am compassionate, but I am also tough,” Sanchez said.
This is how I have been able to navigate the common barriers that women face in a male-dominated field. I have and will continue to challenge tradition, or, ‘This is the way we’ve always done it’ mindset.
I believe a grassroots campaign such as mine can defeat a long-seated, never opposed sheriff. For years the county has been searching for a candidate that aligns with its values and that candidate is me.
There’s much more here. Sanchez’s appearance last weekend seemed different than other times I’ve watched her on the campaign trail this year. She exudes a type of inspirational confidence with her words and how she says them. I’ve seen this before, but the results have been wildly inconsistent.
—Eric Swalwell had this type of quiet confidence and charisma early in his run for Congress against Pete Stark in 2011. Swalwell pulled one of the biggest upsets in Alameda County election history. But I also saw it in 2016 from a candidate running against Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley named Bryan Parker. Either Parker is an excellent salesman or he really believed his rhetoric. In the end, he was trounced by 25 points on Primary Day.
20TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—ORTEGA ALL DAY—Voters in the 20th Assembly District’s Hayward, San Leandro, Union City, Dublin and unincorporated areas will soon be inundated with mailers, web ads, and possibly television commercials expressing support for candidate Liz Ortega.
—An Independent Expenditure (IE) Committee supporting Ortega named “East Bay Together Supporting Ortega-Toro for Assembly 2022, sponsored by Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers Local 3” is currently filling its campaign coffers. On Monday, the Sheet Metal Workers Local Union 104 Political Committee contributed $15,000 to the East Bay Together IE, according to the state Secretary of State office.
—Earlier this week, AFSCME Local 3299 pledged spend $500,000 for an IE supporting Ortega. Also, Shawn Kumagai, another candidate in the 20th Assembly District received $3,000 from the Liberty Mutual Insurance Company PAC on Wednesday.
—‘DRO DEM CLUB’S POLICY CHANGE—Last month, the San Leandro Democratic Club surprised many when they voted to endorse Jennifer Esteen in the 20th Assembly District June primary. Esteen was also genuinely surprised when she learned of the club’s backing. But the result raised questions from some of the club’s members after Esteen won the endorsement with only 10 of 21 voting members over the hometown candidate, Liz Ortega, and Shawn Kumagai.
—Plurality voting for endorsements has been the club’s policy for some time, but it may soon change, said Ed Hernandez, president of the San Leandro Democratic Club. “We will review a proposed endorsement policy to shift from this plurality to a majority of votes to gain the valuable endorsement of our club,” Hernandez wrote to club members last week.
18TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—MIA BONTA VS. WRTIE-IN—Assemblymember Mia Bonta is going to have at least one write-in candidate join her on the June primary ballot. The filing deadline for the June primary passed last month without a challenger to Bonta’s 18th Assembly District. A candidate intention statement to challenge Bonta was filed on Tuesday by Chris Kula. Because the deadline has passed, Kula will have to be a write-in candidate. He lists Libertarian as his political designation.
—Kula ran as a write-in in the 2008 Republican Primary for Rep. Barbara Lee’s then-9th Congressional District seat and received 27 votes. Nowadays, with the top-two open primary and only two candidates in this race, both Bonta and Kula, if he goes through with his write-in campaign, will advance to the November General Election.
DATEBOOK
—SUPE OF SCHOOLS FORUM—Alameda County Superintendent of Schools candidates and Alameda County Superior Court judicial candidates will meet at an endorsement meeting for the City of Alameda Democratic Club today, 7 p.m. Join the virtual meeting HERE.
—CANDIDATE FORUMS—Hayward Area Democratic Club is hosting candidate forums for the 20th Assembly District; 10th State Senate District; Alameda County Sheriff, District Attorney, and District 3 Supervisor on Saturday, April 16, 10 a.m. Join the virtual meeting HERE.
—SHERIFF FORUM—Alameda County Sheriff’s candidates Yesenia Sanchez and JoAnn Walker, but NOT Sheriff Greg Ahern, will meet at an endorsement forum hosted by the Tri-Valley Democratic Club on Monday, April 18, 7 p.m. Join the virtual meeting HERE.
