Analysis: Sheriff Ahern ran an all-time worst campaign; Terry Wiley has a shot at winning the DA’s race this November
Hayward fines firework scofflaws, more pull papers to run in November
ELECTION 2022
ALAMEDA COUNTY SHERIFF/DISTRICT ATTORNEY
—INSIDE THE NUMBERS—The biggest June primary shocker in the East Bay was not only Yesenia Sanchez’s defeat of incumbent Alameda County Sheriff Greg Ahern but the trouncing she leveled on him. The road to Sanchez’s 21-point win was paved all across the county. Sanchez won every city in Alameda County, except Livermore and Pleasanton. Sanchez also won Dublin, thought to be a Ahern stronghold, by just five votes.
—Sanchez was victorious in Oakland with 51.4 percent of the vote, and she won Berkeley with a whopping 59.4 percent, election data released last week by the Alameda County Registrar’s Office.
—Across the board, Ahern’s electoral performance was shockingly inept. For a longtime incumbent like Ahern, it’s one of the worst campaigns ever waged in Alameda County. To make matters worse, third-place opponent, JoAnn Walker, beat Ahern by 20 votes in Emeryville. She also trailed Ahern for second in Oakland by 5,000 votes.
—Ahern also lost unincorporated Alameda County by under three percentage points. This is somewhat surprising for two reasons: Ahern is essentially the unincorporated areas’ police chief. Much of Alameda County Sheriff’s Office’s public outreach and social programs is centered here. Something else was going on with this set of voters. One theory is unincorporated voters, like the rest of the county desired changed. This is likely true, but these same voters, for some reason, did not gravitate to the so-called “change agent” in the Alameda County District Attorney race.
—District Attorney candidate Pamela Price won 10 of 14 Alameda County cities and jurisdictions last June. Wiley won just Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton, and unincorporated Alameda County. But unlike Sanchez’s victory in the sheriff’s where her support was strong nearly across the board, Price’s strong primary performance was greatly fueled by Oakland and Berkeley voters. Price mopped the floor with challengers Terry Wiley and Jimmie Wilson in these highly progressive cities.
—Price beat Wiley, her November General Election opponent, by 25,372 votes in Oakland, and 10,230 votes in Berkeley. That translates to Price winning 50.3 percent of the primary vote in Oakland, followed by Wiley at 18.8 percent, and Wilson at 12.1 percent. In Berkeley, Price grabbed 51 percent of the vote, followed by Wiley at 15.3 percent and Wilson at 7.9 percent.
—With this outcome, Wiley and Wilson never stood a chance last June. But there is some reasons for Wiley’s campaigns to be optimistic about November.
—The presence in the race of two similar candidates currently working at the Alameda County DA’s proved to greatly hamper Wiley’s June campaign and aid Price’s. If Wilson was not in the race, Alameda, Hayward, Newark, and San Leandro might have been won by Wiley.
—In addition, Wiley’s wins in Livermore and Pleasanton would have been much larger without Wilson, and large gains would have been seen in Fremont, Piedmont, Union City, and unincorporated Alameda County.
—It’s within Wiley’s reach to erase the sizable 15-point second-place finish to Price, but barely. This race will not be won or lost in Oakland and Berkeley and may not even the Tri-Valley, but in Central Alameda County and the Tri-Cities.
—If you subscribe to the idea that voters who supported Seth Steward’s June primary campaign will naturally gravitate toward Price in November, the numbers strongly suggest the fall’s rematch between Price and Wiley is going to be decided by a very, very slim margin.
OAKLAND MAYOR
—INTIMATE GATHERING—Groups holding Oakland mayoral forums need to seriously think about limiting the number of candidates at these events. There is currently 16 candidates who have filed an intention to run for Oakland mayor. There won’t be that many on the ballot, but probably around 10 will qualify. As we saw last week at the Fremont High candidate forum, seven candidates is too many and the crowded stage takes away a great deal of utility for voters.
—Like it or not, there’s a Big 3+1 in this race. They are Oakland Councilmembers Sheng Thao, Loren Taylor, and Treva Reid, plus Ignacio De La Fuente. My recommendation is to open up a fifth spot on the stage to one other candidate based on how fulsome their platform is and whether they have raised money for their campaign. At this point, that candidate is Seneca Scott. He has ideas, drives the conversation, and based on his campaign finance report, he received a $900 contributions from Oakland insider John Protopappas, which is notable. If you disagree, then how about Greg Hodge?
—PULLING PAPERS—Below is the list of prospective candidates who recently pulled papers. Note: Alameda County’s filing deadline is Friday, Aug. 12. If the incumbent in a race does not file, then the deadline is Wednesday, Aug. 17. *Incumbent.
AC TRANSIT BOARD OF DIRECTORS—Geoffrey Johnson (Ward 3), Barisha Spriggs (District 4).
ORO LOMA SANITARY DISTRICT—Bob Glaze, Shelia Young.
ALAMEDA HEALTHCARE BOARD OF DIRECTORS—*Robert Deutsch, *Tracy Jensen.
PERALTA COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT—Sheweet Yohannes (Area 7).
EAST BAY REGIONAL PARK DISTRICT—Daphne Lin (District 3).
DUBLIN SCHOOL BOARD—Kristin Speck (Area 2).
CITY NEWS
HAYWARD
—UNSAFE AND INSANE—Hayward residents, and much of the East Bay, witnessed a significant amount of rockets red-glare last July 4. It’s an annual problem that Hayward city officials this year chose to combat with a new strategy. Last spring, the Hayward City Council approved an ordinance that would place the liability for illegal fireworks on homeowners.
—It remains to be seen if the new deterrence strategy will work, the city admits. But 59 Hayward property owners received notice of violations, the city said, which includes initial penalties of $1,200 for a first offense. In addition, Hayward firefighters responded to 27 fires, on July 4, the city reported.