Asian-dominated AD24 asked to continue first-term progressive's rise or return to his predecessor
East Bay candidates are scrambling to fortify their finances with two weeks to go
PROLOGUE
Over the past decade, what was known then as the 25th District included a small chunk of Fremont and was dominated by Santa Clara County. Redistricting this year added more of Fremont to the new 24th District. Enough to entice a Fremont elected official to join the fray. Even with its new borders, this has long been viewed as an Asian-dominated district and will continue to be with this year’s election cycle.
MEET THE CANDIDATES
ALEX LEE
The 26-year-old first-term assemblymember won the seat in 2020 under unique and very fortuitous circumstances. A former legislative aide to several South Bay officials, including an opponent in this primary, Lee finished second in the 2020 primary in a field of nine candidates that included one Republican. Lee won just 15.4 percent of the vote, which was good enough for second place. In the Democratic-dominated district, the Republican was no match for Lee in November. In just two years, Lee has risen to be one of the most progressive members in the Legislature. His youthful exuberance has indeed rankled some veterans in Sacramento, but his zeal for affordable housing is respected.
KANSEN CHU
Chu securely held this seat for six years before deciding to forego re-election in 2020 and instead run for Santa Clara County supervisors. His bid was unsuccessful. During his time in Sacramento he is best known for pushing a bill several times to end daylight-savings time in the state.
BOB BRUNTON
This guy is a glutton for punishment. Brunton has advanced to the November General Election every two years since 2014. When he won the 2020 June primary, it was his first victory in a state legislative race. But he then lost to Alex Lee by 41 points. Prior to that, Brunton served 12 years on the Ohlone Community College District Board of Trustees. He calls himself a “Common Sense Republican.”
TERESA KENG
A Fremont small business owner, Keng burst on the scene in Fremont after winning a seat on the City Council. She easily won the newly-created short-term District 1 council seat and was re-elected while running unopposed in 2020.
LAN DIEP
Diep is most known for using Captain America’s shield as a campaign prop. He’s shuttled around San Jose politics for several years. Diep won election to the San Jose City Council 2016 by just 29 votes. With his margin of error slim, Diep lost re-election four years later in another close race.
PLOTLINES
The main storyline here is the possibility of a matchup between the last two assemblymembers for this district, and the young versus old angle. Kansen Chu wants to call it experience. This is also a race heavily-influenced by Asian American voters. All four Democrats are Asian Americans and two are immigrants from Taiwan. Lee’s suggestion in a social media ad last month that he was more American than his opponents was provocative, but he didn’t really receive much blowback. Lee exudes a swagger befitting a 26-year-old in state elected office. He’s got the world on a string.
PAST RESULTS
2020 JUNE PRIMARY (25th District)
Bob Brunton (R) 19,612 votes (20.8%)
Alex Lee (D) 14,542 votes (15.4%)
Anne Kepner (D) 12,823 votes (13.6%)
Anna Song (D) 11,992 votes (12.7%)
Natasha Gupta (D) 9,778 votes (10.4%)
Carmen Montano (D) 9,672 votes (10.2%)
Anthony Phan (D) 6,780 votes (7.2%)
Roman Reed (D) 5,549 votes (5.9%)
Jim Canova (D) 3,623 votes (3.8%)
2020 NOVEMBER ELECTION (25th District)
Alex Lee (D) 135,733 votes (70.5%)
Bob Brunton (R) 56,775 (29.5%)
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
ALEX LEE (D)—Jan. 1-April 23
Cash on Hand $444,874
Cash IN $188,544
Cash OUT $272,261
Loans/Debts $0
Total Cash IN (2021-22) $409,910
Donor Type: Labor unions/elected officials. Notable Donors: Northern California Carpenters Regional Council Cmte $9,700; California Teachers Association Cmte $9,700; SEIU-UNH West PAC $9,700; SEIU California State Council Cmte $9,700; SEIU Local 2015 State PAC $9,700; California Nurses Association PAC $7,200; Rendon for Assembly 2022 $4,900; AFSCME Local 3299 PAC $4,900; Sprinkler Fitters Local 483 PAC $4,900; Asian Pacific Islander Leadership PAC $4,900; Pechanga Band of Luiseno Indians $4,900; Viejas Tribal Government $4,900; Ash Kalra for Assembly 2022 $4,900; LGBT Caucus Leadership Fund PAC $4,900; Santa Clara Firefighters Local 1171 PAC $4,900.
Top Endorsers: California Democratic Party, Anthony Rendon, Toni Atkins, Bob Wieckowski, Cindy Chavez, Aisha Wahab, California Federation of Teachers, California Nurses Association.
KANSEN CHU (D)—Jan. 1-April 23
Cash on Hand $296,224
Cash IN $160,614
Cash OUT $69,092
Loans/Debts $2,000
Total Cash IN (2021-22) $394,199
Donor Type: Individuals/self-funded/developers. Notable Donors: Kansen Chu for County Supervisor 2020 $9,800; Chiu Chu L. Ling $9,800; Bizlink Technology $9,800; Kungfudirect.com $4,900; Americans4Hindu-California $4,900; Mission Peak Builder LLC $4,900; John Chiang for Governor 2022 $3,888.
Top Endorsers: Sylvia Arenas, Sherry Wu, Bill Harrison, Raj Salwan, Yang Shao,
TERESA KENG (D)—Jan. 1-April 23
Cash on Hand $119,795
Cash IN $97,231
Cash OUT $155,851
Loans/Debts $65,500 (loan)
Total Cash IN (2021-22) $297,413
Donor Type: Individuals/self-funded. Notable Donors: Robert Keng $4,900; Limin Hu $4,900; Henwen Lee Gill $4,900; Rosario Tupaz $4,900; Chen Wei Wei $3,700; Kwong Lai $3,000; Anna Wang $3,000; Abraham Jou $2,900.
Top Endorsers: Andrew Yang, Lisa Gilmor, Mary Hayashi, Kathy Watanabe Kevin Park.
LAN DIEP (D)—Jan. 1-April 23
Cash on Hand $39,429
Cash IN $42,291
Cash OUT $2,861
Loans/Debts $0
Total Cash IN (2021-22) $42,291
Donor Type: Individuals. Notable Donors: Mark Tersini $2,500; Frank Lee $2,500; Sandy Chau $2,000; Eric Leufroy $1,000; San Jose Water Company $1,000.
ROBERT BRUNTON (R)—Jan. 1-April 23
—No Report Filed—
PRIMARY OUTLOOK
Alex Lee is going to finish in first place in the primary. But he’s been acting borderline cocky about it and there could be some worry about hubris becoming an issue. So how does the rest of the field shake down? Kansen Chu presumably has good name-recognition in this district after serving as their assemblymember. But Chu, Keng, and Diep have not lit up the fundraising board, which could be telling. Frankly, why put your money against an incumbent assemblymember who checks most of the big boxes. Lee is progressive and Asian in a blue district. Teresa Keng could be a second-place player here because she’s the only woman in the field. As usual, Bob Brunton is also a big player with his 20 percent of the Republican vote locked down.
PREDICTION
Top Two: 1. Lee 2. Brunton.
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