CA14 Special Election Preview: Round 3
Race to replace Eric Swalwell restarts today. After two 20-plus-point wins in June, Wahab is sitting strong as Hernandez faces significant headwinds going into the Aug. 18 special election
☕️MORNING BUZZ
Vol. VI, No. 1,326
🗓️29 days to CA14 Special Election
—Voters in the 14th Congressional District will begin receiving vote-by-mail ballots this week for a special election that will determine a new member of Congress for the East Bay—at least through the end of the year.
It’s the third CA14 election in the past two months, but the first head-to-head matchup between the top two finishers: State Sen. Aisha Wahab and BART Board Director Melissa Hernández.
Wahab won the 10-candidate regular primary on June 2 by 21 percentage points, then followed it with a 26-point victory in the 11-candidate special primary on June 16.
The Aug. 18 special election will fill the remainder of former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s term through December. Voters will then return to the polls on Nov. 3 to decide who will represent Hayward, Fremont and the Tri-Valley for the next two years.
With ballots arriving, the next month will provide the clearest indication yet of how Wahab, Hernández and their allies intend to finish the campaign.
Super PACs Take the Wheel
During the final month of the June 2 primary, Hernández’s campaign largely ceded control of messaging and spending to outside groups.
The messaging that produced roughly 16 percent of the vote in both June elections was amplified with little apparent benefit. It centered on public safety, appeals to Latino voters, immigrants and women, but was delivered with little variation or creativity.
The opening wave of Super PAC mail for the special election continues those same themes. The first two mailers came from Alameda Come Together PAC and Safer Alameda County PAC. Both appear tied to independent expenditure committees that supported Hernández during the June elections and received backing from groups aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
The AIPAC Question
For a Democrat running in the Bay Area, support from AIPAC is not the political asset it may have been just a few years ago.
Hernández’s campaign is unlikely to highlight that support. Democratic attitudes toward Israel have shifted significantly since the Israel-Gaza conflict, making the issue politically sensitive in a deep-blue district.
Foreign policy has remained largely absent from the campaign. Hernández expressed support for Israel during a May candidate forum. Wahab has rarely discussed the issue during the race, although she authored a Senate Concurrent Resolution last year calling for an end to the conflict.
Surprisingly Low-Key Congressional Race
One of the more unusual aspects of the CA14 race is how little it has resembled a typical congressional campaign.
Neither candidate has posted eye-popping fundraising numbers. Wahab has raised just over $500,000 during the cycle, while Hernández has raised more than $600,000.
Wahab has also kept spending relatively modest, avoiding the flood of campaign mail and digital ads typically associated with a competitive House race. It’s difficult to criticize a strategy that produced two victories of more than 20 points.
One possible sign the race is tightening would be the emergence of large independent expenditures from labor unions or other Democratic organizations on Wahab’s behalf.
Mid-year campaign finance reports suggest Wahab sees little reason to alter her approach. Despite claims from Hernández supporters, Wahab remains arguably the most popular elected official in Alameda County, and her strong performance in the Tri-Valley during both June elections should concern Hernández’s campaign.
SB 1193 Changed the Conversation
Wahab’s most effective political moment this year may not have come on the campaign trail.
Her Senate Bill 1193 has rattled the Alameda County Board of Supervisors unlike any issue in recent memory. The legislation would impose greater transparency on county supervisors’ discretionary spending and require additional public reporting on how millions of dollars are distributed each year.
Supervisor David Haubert did Hernández no favors by inaccurately portraying the bill as a threat to nonprofit organizations receiving county funding. Hernandez works in Haubert’s office. As more observers recognized that characterization was misleading—and mainstream media began covering the issue—the Board increasingly appeared defensive.
Hernández has worked to distance herself from both Haubert and his chief of staff, Shawn Wilson, who has become entangled in the FBI’s public corruption investigation.
Will the Campaign Turn Negative?
With Wahab holding a substantial lead, Hernández’s path likely depends on changing the dynamics of the race.
One possible clue emerged in Democrat Rakhi Israni’s endorsement of Hernández. Israni, who spent approximately $2.4 million yet finished well behind the leaders in both June elections, included a reference to motherhood in her endorsement.
Hernández has consistently emphasized being a mother throughout her campaign. Whether that message resonates remains an open question.
Campaigns often feature candidates’ families, but there is a difference between introducing voters to young children—as East Bay state Senate candidate Scott Sakakihara effectively did during the June primary—and repeatedly highlighting adult children, as Hernandez is doing.
If Hernández attempts to draw a contrast by emphasizing that Wahab is not a mother, it would be a significant gamble.
Many younger professional women are delaying marriage and children while building careers. For that growing demographic, Wahab’s life experience may feel more familiar. Hernández frequently speaks about how remarkable it is that “someone like me” could become mayor. Younger voters may instead see success less as good fortune than as the product of education, ambition and hard work.
Keys to Victory
WAHAB: The formula is straightforward: avoid mistakes.
She enters the final month with a commanding lead against an opponent who has yet to demonstrate a clear command of the national issues members of Congress regularly confront.
During eight years in elected office, Wahab has compiled relatively few significant political missteps. Her 2023 caste discrimination legislation was perhaps the clearest unforced error.
Lower turnout should also favor Wahab because she enjoys higher name recognition. An Aug. 18 victory would almost certainly make the November rematch an uphill battle for Hernández by giving Wahab the advantages of incumbency after three consecutive wins.
HERNANDEZ: It’s time to hit the accelerator.
Winning in August would immediately transform the November race by allowing Hernández to run as the incumbent.
Yet the campaign has remained largely quiet since the June special primary. Reports of additional staffing changes and continuing turmoil surrounding Haubert’s office have done little to project momentum.
A recently released autobiographical digital ad suggests the campaign is attempting a reset. But after running since January, Hernández should arguably be well beyond the introductory stage with voters.
AIPAC-aligned Super PACs are likely to carry the negative campaign against Wahab. If those efforts succeed in softening Wahab’s image, Hernández will still need to convince voters she is prepared to represent the East Bay on national and international issues.
Ultimately, East Bay Democrats are choosing someone they expect to serve as a bulwark against the Trump administration—not simply someone to advocate on local issues such as housing or public safety. Those national expectations may determine the outcome over the final four weeks.
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ELECTION 2026
🗓️106 days to November General Election
—PULLING PAPERS—The nomination period for candidates seeking office in the Nov. 3 General Election is now underway. Prospective candidates have until Aug. 7 to file nomination papers and qualify for the ballot.
—Here’s a look at the candidates who joined the field on Friday. *-incumbent.
ALAMEDA USD
Mike McMahon - Short-term
BERKELEY
Majdi “Gaith” Abuhamdieh - District 4
CASTRO VALLEY USD
*Kara Tsao Wong - Area 3
DUBLIN
James Tanner Frye - District 2
FREMONT
Jason James Orlic - District 2
NEWARK
Poornachandra Rajidi - City Council At-large
PIEDMONT
Nancy Beninati - City Council At-large
Holen Brady - City Council At-large
Sunny Bostrom-Flemming - City Council At-large
Bill Reichle - City Council At-large
SAN LEANDRO USD
*Leo Sheridan - Area 4
UNION CITY
Victor Lopez Pulido - District 2
Francis Rojas - New Haven USD - Area 5
AC TRANSIT
*Sarah Syed - Ward 4
EAST BAY MUD
*Andy Katz - Ward 4
CASTRO VALLEY SANITARY DISTRICT
*Kristy Woerz - At-large
LIVERMORE AREA RECREATION & PARK DISTRICT
Matthew Bogdanowicz - At-large
OHLONE COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT
*Betty Ho - Area 7
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
—💰MONEYBALL—Form 497 large campaign contributions filed on July 10-19:
ALAMEDA COUNTY
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
—David Haubert for Supervisor 2028, California Real Estate PAC, $5,000; IPX Power USA, LLC, $5,000. TOTAL: $10,000.
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE SENATE
—Jerry McNerney for State Senate 2028, Laura Skelton Yakovenko of Oakland. TOTAL: $5,900.
—Tim Grayson for State Controller 2030, Populus Financial Group, Inc., $5,900. TOTAL: $5,900.
STATE ASSEMBLY
—Mia Bonta for Assembly 2026, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 595 PAC Small Contributor Committee, $5,900. TOTAL: $5,900.
—Alex Lee for State Assembly 2026, Katie Luo of Santa Clara, $5,900. TOTAL: $5,900.
—Buffy Wicks California Solutions Ballot Measure Committee, DoorDash, Inc., $20,000. TOTAL: $20,000.
