East Bay's June Primary Election Preview, Part 1
Alameda County DA race remains the headlining primary contest
—PART 1—Two and a half months ago, I was calling the 2022 election cycle one of the greatest ever. We still have quite a ways to go until the November General Election, but the June primary, with some much early promise, has largely fizzled.
—The Alameda County District Attorney election still ranks as the top race to watch over the next two months. The rest of the big race? They have failed to gain any momentum or any storylines, other than the pursuit of political endorsements and union labor money. The highly-anticipated Alameda County Board of Supervisors race in District 3 now appears to be a mismatch. Same with the campaigns to unseat Alameda County Sheriff Greg Ahern.
—However, potential storylines may still emerge before vote-by-mail ballot arrive in early May. Here’s the June primary preview of the big races and what to expect on June 7 and beyond. (Read Part 2 in Friday’s East Bay Insiders newsletter.)
DISTRICT ATTORNEY
CANDIDATES—The race to replace retiring Alameda County District Attorney Nancy O’Malley has lived up to its top billing. Over the past few months, Pamela Price, a challenger in this race from 2018, along with two Alameda County prosecutors—Terry Wiley and Jimmie Wilson—and Seth Steward, chief of staff for Oakland Councilmember Dan Kalb, have brought aggressive rhetoric and arguments for describing why they are the best candidate for the office. It’s a top-notch field.
STORYLINE—You just have this feeling that negative campaigning is going to take over the narrative in this race. Price has that FPPC complaint from O’Malley’s 2020 campaign that includes Wiley, but could also indict the status quo at the DA’s office, of which Price has criticized for a long time. There’s moneyed interest in support of Wiley and Wilson and their potential for maintaining the status quo. Wiley and Wilson have, at times, run against O’Malley’s legacy, but voters who don’t want the massive change Price is selling, will settle for these guys. Steward has been a little lost in these royal rumbles between Price, Wiley, and Wilson, but he represents youthful change and has been thoughtful in his vision for the DA’s office. Steward might come out of this campaign with high marks. Perhaps a resume builder for another office down the line?
FRONTRUNNER—As of mid-March, it’s probably Price, but she’s been known to be erratic late in campaigns. Will she seal the deal this time? Meanwhile, the institutional support is likely with Wiley. Betting line puts these candidates one-two and in a very competitive November runoff.
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
CANDIDATES—An open seat on the Alameda County Board of Supervisor is usually the Holy Grail for local candidates. But the District 3 race for the late Wilma Chan’s seat failed to attract the high-profile candidates most expected. Oakland Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan headlines the field, along with three former elected officials. They include former Alameda Councilmember Lena Tam, former San Leandro Councilmember Surlene Grant, and former Oakland school boardmember David Kakishiba. Kaplan has served on the Oakland City Council since 2009. Here’s a fun fact: Kaplan’s three opponents have been out of office for a combined 34 years. The last to serve was Tam in 2014.
STORYLINE—You’re going to hear a lot of praise for Chan and her legacy in this race. The field learned this is a wise move after Kaplan announced her candidacy in a lengthy press release and neglected to even mention Chan. A reason why this field is thin is because several prospective candidates did the math and were not convinced there was enough fundraising money to go around. Kaplan is expected to receive a windfall of cash from unions and special interests connected to Oakland. If the other three candidates have any chance they’re going to have to make this race all about Oakland. This isn’t typically an Oakland seat. It’s only represents a small portion of District 3 that is dominated by Alameda and San Leandro, along with San Lorenzo. Oakland has problems that the rest of district reads about and sees on the local news everyday. Expect rhetoric using Oakland’s problems against Kaplan.
FRONTRUNNER—Nonetheless, Kaplan is a prohibitive favorite here, but maybe not an outright win, but maybe close to it. She would need to win a simple majority in a field of four candidates. It’s not clear whether San Leandro and Alameda voters know Kaplan and that’s a big part of District 3. So, who is second? Tam or Grant. But both have been out of office awhile. I always say that if you’re out of office for more than two years, most of the voters forget about you. Will they have the money to reintroduce themselves to voters?
10TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
CANDIDATES—While some well-qualified candidates in other high-profile races decided to sit things out, this race for termed out state Sen. Bob Wieckowski’s seat has a pair of accomplished candidates. Democrats Hayward Councilmember Aisha Wahab and Fremont Mayor Lily Mei top the field of six candidates. Jim Canova, a Santa Clara school board; Jamal Khan, an attorney; and Raymond Liu, an engineer; are also Democrats. But the name to watch is the lone Republican, Paul Pimentel, a businessman and pastor who opposes mask mandates.
STORYLINE—This is a race that could decided by the Republican. Not only in June, but in November. The field is large and it contains two strong candidates, and one Republican. That’s a recipe for Pimentel gobbling up every last Republican, perhaps, as much as 20 percent of the vote, and possibly finishing second in the top two primary. In this scenario, if either Wahab or Mei finishes first or second, along with Pimentel, they will easily win in November because the 20th District is that blue. However, in the old 20th District before redistricting, GOP candidates have typically underperformed. Meanwhile, Mei has significant baggage. She was reprimanded by Alameda County Democrats for being anti-LGBT and hasn’t done a good job of apologizing over the past six months. That Mei only became a Democrat a few years ago is often thrown against her. Wahab, through her advocacy for tenants in Hayward, may be targeted by south county landlords through independent expenditure committee-funded mailers.
FRONTRUNNER—If you believe progressives tend to heavily participate in primary elections, then you would have to give the nod to Wahab to finish in first place on June 7. Wahab has the Democratic Party fully on her side, along with the progressive grassroots. It’s unlikely Pimentel does anything in this race other than qualify for the ballot. This isn’t like the 2020 race in the 25th District when Alex Lee finished second to the lone Republican in a nine-person primary field and sailed to victory in November. If anything, Pimentel is more likely to siphon votes away from Mei, viewed as the moderate here, and not from Wahab. But, Mei, like Wahab, have too much of a money advantage over the rest of the field. For that reason, Mei should be able to advance to November and that’s when the fireworks in this race are going to rattle single-family homes from Hayward to Santa Clara.
FRIDAY: PART 2 - 20TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT | SHERIFF | 24TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT | CONGRESS/LEGISLATURE | BALLOT MEASURES
FILING DEADLINE
—UNDER THE WIRE—In hindsight, the June 7 primary election was pretty much set about a week again despite two rounds of filing deadlines. But two down-ballot moves were made just under the wire on Wednesday.
—The Alameda County Board of Education race in the Tri-Valley’s Area 7 now has three candidates hoping to replace Trustee Yvonne Cerrato. Kate Dao, the founder of Acton Academy East Bay in Livermore, qualified for the primary on Wednesday. She joins former Pleasanton Councilmember Cheryl Cook-Kallio, and public school teacher Eric Dillie.
—Conversely, John Marchand, the former Livermore mayor, withdrew his candidacy on Wednesday. The race for the Tri-Valley’s Zone 7 Flood Control and Water Conservation District will have five candidates, including three incumbents, vying for four at-large seats.
