For differing reasons, East Bay Defund the Police candidates may fare well this November
AD20 is being inundated with IEs in favor and opposition to Ortega-Toro and Kumagai
This edition was intended for Friday, but a raft of technical issues and a few fists to the table, got in the way. Once resolved, I thought maybe all of us needed a weekend break from the madness of this late election season. The latest edition of the East Bay Insiders Podcast was also hindered last Friday. So here’s what to expect today. Three emails in your inbox: this newsletter, followed by the podcast email, and Monday’s regularly scheduled edition. I’ll begin the Election Previews on Tuesday, although I would argue if you’ve read the Newsletter for the past 10 months, it’s essentially one long and winding preview. Also thank you for reading and supporting this endeavor!
-steve
ELECTION 2022 PREVIEW
Days until Election Day: 17.
PUBLIC SAFETY
—LENIENCY—Granted, the November election still has a way to go until we can figure out what it all means. But there’s one side of the public safety issue, perceived to be potentially devastating to any candidate in the 2022 election cycle, that may ultimately not play out as once thought.
—The issue is “Defund the Police” and those on this year’s ballot who supported the idea over the past two years. In the aftermath of George Floyd’s death at the hands of Minneapolis Police came a strong push to shrink police department budgets.
—Subsequently, as we’ve seen or felt over the past year is a rise in crime in the East Bay, or, at least a public perception that the crime rate is going up. This scenario has made the defund the police platform one fraught with danger for candidates running for office this year.
—But a look at how some races are trending, police defunders, overall, may fare quite well on Election Day. Here are some of the candidates identified as police defunders, whether they like it or not.
Pamela Price, Alameda County DA
Nikki Fortunato Bas, Oakland City Council
Rebecca Kaplan, Alameda County Supervisors
Sheng Thao, Oakland mayor
Victor Aguilar, Jr., San Leandro City Council
Celina Reynes, San Leandro City Council
—I project all seven candidates on this short list of police defunders are headed toward victory on Nov. 8 or very likely to win. However, in most of these cases, it’s not that the Defund the Police criticism has been neutralized by the candidates receiving it, but that the criticism has not been utilities to its full potential, along with other factors unique to each race. For example, the good fortune of running unopposed.
—Price, who won the June primary, but is facing a difficult runoff against Terry Wiley, is not being hit directly on the defund issue, but criticism of just how far her platform for reforming criminal justice will go has amounted to the same negative tone and tenor used by some when it comes to defunding the police. Among this list, Price might be the most likely to falter next month, but it probably wouldn’t be solely due to defund the police and more indicative of her campaign not expanding her support across the county in what is now a two-candidate race.
—Kaplan has lucked out in this supervisorial election. Despite her previous stance on public safety and the overall state of Oakland, any and all challengers should have made this their whole campaign from the start. But only in last six weeks has runoff opponent Lena Tam started making this direct link. If you believe the internal polls going around, Kaplan is heading toward a dominant win.
—Among those on this list, Bas has endured the harshest attack for her defund the police stance. Political newcomer Harold Lowe is giving a master class for how an underfunded candidate should take on an incumbent. Bas, as Oakland City Council president, is arguably the ring leader of the movement in Oakland. Many thought she dodged a bullet when a credible challenger to her re-election failed to emerge. But Lowe’s constant rhetoric against Bas is making life difficult for her right now. But there’s just too many other electoral advantages in Bas’ favor, like money and union support, to lose this race.
—In San Leandro, which came under the Defund the Police radar, saw a push, albeit much smaller than Oakland’s, to reduce the police budget. San Leandro Councilmember Victor Aguilar, Jr. was one of its biggest support. But he’s running unopposed. Celina Reynes, running the open District 1 council seat in San Leandro was also a proponent and major supporter of the city creating its own citizen-led police oversight board. While her opponents have attempted to criticize her stance, the attacks has not been direct. She is projected to win next month.
OAKLAND CITY COUNCIL
—BLAME IT ON THE WEBMASTER—If Oakland Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas was not the standard bearer for defunding the police, then it was Councilmember Carroll Fife. However, like Bas, and others involved, Fife has tried to sidestep their plan in 2020 to reduced the Oakland Police Department’s budget by 50 percent over a two-year period. It happened. Their strategy, instead, has been to focus on the budget plan that was adopted and to blame the cuts on Mayor Libby Schaaf.
—Over the past year, Fife has fought back brickbats on social media that she supported defunding the police. An intrepid tweeter noticed on Fife’s own website that she supported defunding the police. (See below). Fife used a novel version of the tried and true Shaggy Defense. It wasn’t me. It was the webmaster.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE DATA
—IE SPENDING—Below is Form 496 Independent Expenditure Reports from Friday through Saturday.
10TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—Opportunity PAC - A coalition of teachers, health care givers, faculty members, school employees, and public and private employee organizations (Opposing Lily Mei in SD10), Total: $107,759—Mailers ($79,457, $13,302), Polling ($15,000).
20TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—Keep Californians Working (Opposing Liz Ortega-Toro in AD20), Total: $135,056—Digital Ads ($133,556), Consulting ($1,500).
—Keep Californians Working (Opposing Liz Ortega-Toro in AD20), Total: $18,677—Digital Ads ($17,927), Consulting ($750).
—Keep Californians Working (Supporting Shawn Kumagai in AD20), Total: $18,677—Digital Ads ($17,927), Consulting ($750).
—Californians for Jobs and a Strong Economy (Opposing Liz Ortega-Toro in AD20), Total: $58,714—Mailer ($54,819), Research Costs ($3,900).
—Nurses and Educators for a Brighter California Future sponsored by labor organizations (Supporting Liz Ortega-Toro in AD20), Total: $14,879—Mailer ($14,879).
—Nurses and Educators for a Brighter California Future sponsored by labor organizations (Opposing Shawn Kumagai in AD20), Total: $14,879—Mailer ($14,879).
—California Latino PAC (Supporting Liz Ortega-Toro in AD20), Total: $22,740—TV Ads ($15,000), Web Ads ($5,000), Video Production (2,740).
—DaVita Inc. Including Aggregated Contributions (Supporting Shawn Kumagai in AD20), Total: $48,001—Mailer ($48,001).
OAKLAND
—Californians for Safer Streets Supporting Ignacio De La Fuente for Mayor of Oakland (Supporting De La Fuente), Total: $55,920—Media Buys ($50,000, $920), Newspaper Ads ($5,000).
—National Association of Realtors Fund (Supporting De La Fuente for Mayor), Total: $43,469—Mailer ($43,469).
—Oakland Police Officer's Association - Political Action Committee (Supporting Nenna Joiner in Oakland Dist. 4) Total: $14,940—Mailer ($14,940).
HAYWARD
—California Real Estate PAC (Supporting Dan Goldstein for Hayward City Council, Total: $12,588—Mailer ($12,588).
—California Real Estate PAC (Supporting Julie Roche for Hayward City Council, Total: $12,588—Mailer ($12,588).
FREMONT
—California Real Estate PAC (Supporting Kathy Kimberlin for Fremont City Council, Total: $12,197—Mailer ($12,197).
—California Real Estate PAC (Supporting Kathy Kimberlin for Fremont City Council, Total: $6,649—Mailer ($6,649).
—Fremont Police Association PAC (Supporting Kathy Kimberlin for Fremont City Council, Total: $2,652—Postage ($1,886), Data ($338), Slate Mailer ($238), Slate Mailer ($139).
LIVERMORE
—California Real Estate PAC (Supporting Mel Choing for Livermore City Council, Total: $5,869—Mailer ($5,869).
—MONEYBALL—Below is Form 497 campaign contributions ($1,000 or more) filed Friday through Saturday. *-local city campaign contribution limit.
COUNTY
ALAMEDA COUNTY DEMOCRATS
—Alameda County Democratic Central Committee, Committee for and Affordable and Resilient Berkeley - Yes on Measure L, $10,000; City of Alameda Democratic Club State PAC, 2,000; Sarah Syed for AC Transit 2022, $1,500.
ALAMEDA COUNTY DISTRICT ATTORNEY
—Terry Wiley (Alameda County District Attorney), Phil Tagami of Pleasant Hill, $2,500; Kevin Pereau of Walnut Creek, $2,000; Kenneth Mifsud of San Ramon, $1,000.
ALAMEDA COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
—Rebecca Kaplan (Alameda County Board of Supervisors-Dist. 3), American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees-Council 57 PAC, $7,500; National Union of Healthcare Workers Candidate Committee for Quality Patient Care and Union Democracy, $2,500; Steve Lowe of Oakland, $2,500.
AC TRANSIT BOARD OF DIRECTORS
—Barisha Spriggs (AC Transit Board of Directors-Ward 4, Amalgamated Transit Union LOCAL 1555 PAC, $1,000.
CITY
OAKLAND
—Friends of Oakland Public Schools (Supporting Oakland USD Measure H parcel tax), IBEW Local 595 Issues PAC, $5,000.
—Yes on W, Oakland Fair Elections, Sponsored by Civic Advocacy Organizations Committee Address (Supporting Oakland Measure W campaign reform), ACLU of Northern California Issues Committee, $1,198, $438, $192.
BERKELEY
—Committee for an Affordable and Resilient Berkeley (Supporting Berkeley Measure L infrastructure bond), Wareham Property Group, Inc., $15,000; Martin Marietta of Raleigh, NC, $9,750.
ALAMEDA
—Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft (Alameda Mayor), District Council of Ironworkers PAC, $2,500; Robert Doud of Alameda, $1,000.
—Jim Oddie (Alameda City Council), Ky Truong of Alameda, $2,500.
—Tony Daysog (Alameda City Council), Tony Daysog, $2,000.
—Hannah Groce (Alameda City Council), Alameda Firefighters PAC, $1,000.
SAN LEANDRO
—Lee Thomas (San Leandro Mayor), Rental Housing Association o f Southern Alameda County PAC, $2,000.
HAYWARD
—Julie Roche (Hayward City Council), IBEW Local 595 PAC Small Contributor Committee, $1,620*; District Council of Iron Workers PAC, $1,000; Operating Engineers Local Union No. 3 District 20 PAC, $1,000.
LIVERMORE
—Yes on G for Livermore Schools (Supporting Livermore Measure G bond), Steamfitters Local 342 PAC, $7,500; Livermore Valley Educational Foundation, $5,000.
—John Marchand (Livermore Mayor), Livermore-Pleasanton Firefighters Local 1974 Political Action Fund Candidate, $1,000.
—Evan Branning (Livermore City Council-Dist. 1), Livermore-Pleasanton Firefighters Local 1974 Political Action Fund Candidate, $1,000.
UNION CITY
—Yes on Z ( Supporting Union City Measure Z sales tax renewal), California Workers' Justice Coalition sponsored by Service Employees International Union Local 1021, $20,000
STATE LEGISLATURE
10TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—Lily Mei (10th State Senate District), Elevance Health, Inc and its Anthem Blue Cross, California Major Donor Committee, $4,900; California Association of Highway Patrolmen PAC, $4,900; Rental Housing Association o f Southern Alameda County PAC, $4,900., $4,900; Katherine Mei of Seattle, $2,500; FairPAC, Sponsored by the Civil Justice Association of California, $1,500; The Hartford Financial Services Grp, Inc Political Action Committee, $1,000; Samuel Chen of San Jose, $1,000.
—Aisha Wahab (10th State Senate District), American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees Council 57 PAC, $4,900; California Teamsters Public Affairs Council Public Affairs Fund, $4,900; Needham, Kepner & Fish, LLP, $2,500; California Association of Professional Scientists (CAPS PAC) Small Contributor Committee, $2,000; Santa Clara Firefighters Local 1171 FIRE PAC, $1,000.
20TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—Shawn Kumagai (20th Assembly District), Rental Housing Association o f Southern Alameda County PAC, $4,900.
—Liz Ortega-Toro (20th Assembly District), CAL FIRE Local 2881 Small Contributor PAC, $4,900; Matt Haney for Assembly 2022, $2,000, $900.
16TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (16th Assembly District), Intersect Power, LLC, $4,000; California Water Service Company $1,500.