Getting to '5 touches': The true cost of running for countywide office

Unions urging Oakland officials to approve ballpark EIR next week, not in March; BCDC comments

Although former Fremont Councilmember David Bonaccorsi famously had difficulty delivering his message door-to-door, canvassing is nonetheless an important “touch” with voters.

—A new episode of the East Bay Insiders podcast is now available. Subscribe to the podcast for FREE on Apple Podcasts or wherever you download podcasts. Listen to “1-877-KARS-4KOPS. Donate to Ahern Today,” HERE!

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—East Bay Insiders co-host and veteran East Bay political consultant Shawn Wilson and I discussed the high cost of running for county office, and the factors that add up to an expensive price tag.

STEVE TAVARES: When it comes to a candidate that is well-known versus someone who is not in the county, how much additionally do you have to pay [in order to introduce yourself to voters]?

SHAWN WILSON: Three-to-one. Maybe even four-to-one. In campaigns, you want to touch a voter five times and, despite what some folks think, it costs money to do that. It’s two pieces of mail. That’s two touches. A phone call—three. A letter—four. Email—five. There you go. All of that is expensive. Just buying the voter data in Alameda County costs you $5,000 to $10,000. Just to get on the ballot in Alameda County costs you $30,000. Then you do 300,000 to 400,000 pieces of mail, two times, that’s $800,000 at 70 cents a pop and there you go. Now you’ve spent your wad… I could spend $1 million in a [countywide] Alameda County race and maybe not even hit the five touch mark.

STEVE: Do you know your former boss is thinking about making a comeback? [Running for county supervisor.]

SHAWN: Who’s that? [Ellen] Corbett?

STEVE: That’s why I bring this up. It’s always been my theory that you can be as well-known around here, but if you’re not on a ballot or in office for more than two years…

SHAWN: …people forget. You’re irrelevant. She’s on the East Bay Regional Park District board.

STEVE: I think this new generation, the new people on the central committee, the younger people, I really don’t think they know who Ellen Corbett is, despite her clear accomplishments. At this point and looking to the future, she is the last great San Leandro politician. They’re done. But if she were to run for supervisor, she’s going to have to spend more than she thinks.

The problem is you know who you are. And people that you know, know who you are. You may lose sight that other people don’t know who you are and not spend enough money to fix that.

It’s clear what she would run on—experience. And the question is do the people that might be in that race, do they have a glaring lack of experience? I’m not sure about that.

SHAWN: I think the replacement of Supervisor Wilma Chan in District 3 is going to be the most exciting to watch because there’s going to be a lot of good talent. Malia [Vella] is thinking about. You have Ellen Corbett thinking about it. Lena Tam is nearest to Corbett in terms of not being in office and nobody knows her anymore. Others from the Oakland City Council. It’s going to be heavily-contested, a lot of money. A bloodbath for that primary and it’ll be interesting who comes out in the top two.

ROOTED IN OAKLAND

THE INTERSECTION OF SPORTS AND POLITICS

Oakland Councilmember Dan Kalb calls himself a longtime A’s fan, but his comments last week inadvertently upset ballpark supporters in organized labor.

—LABOR IS MIFFED—At last Thursday’s Oakland City Council Rules Committee, Councilmember Dan Kalb, somewhat off-handily, mentioned the now scheduled Feb. 17 council meeting to approve the Howard Terminal Ballpark EIR might not include a vote that night. In the context of the conversation, Kalb appeared to be arguing against a proposal by Councilmember Carroll Fife to table the vote indefinitely until the Oakland Athletics presented the council a community benefits package.

—But Kalb’s comment about a vote possibly being continued from the Feb. 17 meeting to sometime in March, upset labor unions, according to insiders, and they let him know it. The unions, like the A’s, want the EIR approved ASAP.

—Positive momentum for the proposed waterfront has greatly increased recently and much of the success can attributed to local labor unions. Of course, they have great incentive to have the ballpark project approved. Union labor will ultimately construct the $12 billion development.

—BCDC COMMENTS—At least two members of the Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) expressed early skepticism about Howard Terminal and whether placing a ballpark development at the 55-acre property will limit the Port of Oakland’s capacity to handle future cargo.

—“If we amend the seaport plan to remove our terminal from Port Priority Use determination so the A's could build their project, it would presumably reduce regional capacity to handle cargo flows,” questioned Aaron Peskin, a BCDC commissioner and San Francisco supervisor.

—BCDC Commissioner Karl Hasz added, “Do we have capacity, say if the Port of Los Angeles gets shut down for some reason? Terrorist attack? Environmental disaster? Whatever it is, and Oakland and Seattle, need to take up the slack?” Hasz is a Newsom appointee to the BCDC.

—Supporters of the Howard Terminal project should not be too worried about the line of questioning by some BCDC commissioners. It’s part of the normal, sometimes laborious, vetting process for a project as massive and complicated as the Howard Terminal Ballpark Project. The questions posed by BCDC commissioners will be answered in coming months by a study conducted by BCDC staff.

—WNBA OAKLAND—The WNBA’s $75 million infusion of capital investment this week could be a good sign for the efforts to bring a franchise to Oakland. Despite efforts by a local African American investment group to purchase a franchise and have them play at the now underused Oakland Arena, the league has given few indications it’s ready for expansion, other than aspirational statements. But the added capital and the investors involved, including Nike, Condoleeza Rice, Laurene Powell Jobs, and Michael Dell, could accelerate the league’s plans. WNBA officials, however, told The New York Times the league will first attempt to use the new capital to increase its revenues before thinking about expansion. The Bay Area has never been awarded an WNBA franchise since the league began in 1996.

DATEBOOK

UPCOMING EAST BAY POLITICAL EVENTS

—SCHOOLING DEMS—State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond will virtually visit the City of Alameda Democratic Club on Wednesday, Feb. 9, (TIME CHANGE) 7:30 p.m. Register for the virtual meeting HERE.

—SHERIFF TOWN HALL—Alameda County Sheriff's Candidates Forum, hosted by BWOPA Oakland/Berkeley & Hayward/South County Chapters, Thursday, Feb. 10, 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. Register for the virtual meeting HERE.

—DA FORUM—Alameda County District Attorney candidates will meet in an endorsement forum, hosted by the Tri-Valley Democratic Club, Monday, Feb. 21, 7 p.m. Register for the virtual meeting HERE.

—NEW PODCAST! Listen to “1-877-KARS-4KOPS. Donate to Ahern Today,” the latest episode of the East Bay Insiders podcast with me and co-host Shawn Wilson HERE!