June Primary Day: What to Watch as the Results Roll In
Millions in campaign spending, a battle for Congress, a wide-open State Senate seat, the fate of Oakland's Measure E, and a high-profile DA race will shape Primary Night in the East Bay
☕️MORNING BUZZ
Vol. VI, No. 1,282
ELECTION 2026
🗓️June Primary Election Day
—The polls close at 8 p.m. tonight and the waiting begins. The Alameda County Registrar’s Office is conducting its first election without long-time Registrar Tim Dupuis, who retired in March. We’ll see how it goes.
In the meantime, here’s the storylines we’ll be following tonight and likely over the next week:
🗳️14TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Known as the race to replace former Rep. Eric Swalwell, the campaign has largely revolved around state Sen. Aisha Wahab, Rakhi Israni, Melissa Hernandez, Matt Ortega and, potentially, the two Republicans who could play spoiler.
Big money has flooded the race in recent weeks, largely benefiting Hernandez and, to a lesser extent, Wahab. Meanwhile, Israni has invested nearly $1.4 million of her own money into her campaign. One of the three leading Democrats will be shut out of the November general election.
Most political observers assume Wahab, the best-known candidate in the field, advances. The bigger questions are whether Hernandez successfully leveraged her Tri-Valley base while expanding her support into Hayward and Fremont, and whether Israni’s strategy of mobilizing Indian American voters in Fremont and the Tri-Valley is enough to secure a top-two finish.
Could Republicans Wendy Huang or Dena Maldonado slip into the top two if the Democratic vote splinters? If there were only one Republican in the race, perhaps. With two Republicans dividing conservative voters, the odds appear much lower.
When the dust settles, most of these candidates will meet again just two weeks later in the June 16 special primary to determine who serves the remainder of Swalwell’s term through December. The results of the regular primary will likely shape that contest. Given the short turnaround, it’s also possible the June 2 results won’t be fully settled before vote-counting begins in the special election. If no candidate wins an outright majority on June 16, the top two will advance to an Aug. 18 runoff.
🗳️17TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
The East Bay’s other notable congressional contest involves Rep. Ro Khanna’s re-election bid and whether tech entrepreneur Ethan Agarwal advances to November.
Few expect Khanna to face serious difficulty winning a fifth term. However, Agarwal represents a unique challenge. Khanna has never faced an opponent with Agarwal’s fundraising potential or willingness to self-promote.
Agarwal has also shown a penchant for provocative rhetoric, which could make for an entertaining general election campaign if he advances.
🗳️10TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
This remains the night’s most unpredictable race.
With Wahab running for Congress, the open district stretching from Hayward to Sunnyvale has attracted five Democrats and one Republican. All six candidates could conceivably finish with double-digit support.
Union City Councilmember Scott Sakakihara, West Valley-Mission Community College Trustee Anne Kepner, and San Jose Councilmember David Cohen are generally viewed as the frontrunners.
Business-backed independent expenditure committees have spent millions supporting Sakakihara and attacking Kepner. Labor groups, particularly the nurses, have spent heavily on Kepner’s behalf. Sakakihara has poured $1 million of his own money into the race, while Kepner has contributed roughly $200,000 to her campaign.
The increasingly negative tone of the campaign underscores how close the race may be—not only for first place, but for second. Outside groups have targeted Sakakihara over his past employment with Palantir and its ties to ICE.
Ironically, after millions of dollars in spending, the lone Republican in the race, Linda Price, could disrupt everyone’s plans. Price has spent no money and maintained no presence in this primary, but if the Democratic vote fractures evenly while conservative voters consolidate behind her, she could potentially capture a top-two spot.
A similar scenario occurred in the 2020 race for the open 25th Assembly District. Republican Bob Brunton finished first with 20.8 percent of the primary vote, while Democrat Alex Lee advanced with just 15.4 percent. SD10 candidates Kepner and Carmen Montano finished third and sixth in that contest. Lee easily won the 2020 election in the fall with 70 percent support.
🗳️BALLOT MEASURES
Oakland’s Measure E parcel tax may test the limits of voters’ willingness to tax themselves out of the city’s fiscal challenges.
Had Measure E been placed on the ballot by the City Council, requiring two-thirds voter approval, it would almost certainly fail. As a citizen-led initiative requiring only a simple majority, however, it appears to have a viable path to passage.
Support appears softer than it did several months ago, particularly as residents grapple with rising living costs. Still, Measure E may have enough momentum to clear 50 percent.
If it fails, it becomes the biggest local storyline of the night. Oakland officials would face renewed questions about how to close an anticipated $30 million structural budget gap without additional revenue.
Elsewhere, voters in the Peralta Community College District, Piedmont, and Hayward will consider school parcel tax renewals. Castro Valley voters will decide a $212 million school facilities bond. In San Leandro, voters will determine whether to transition from the city’s hybrid at-large election system to district-based council elections beginning this November.
🗳️ALAMEDA COUNTY DISTRICT ATTORNEY
Appointed District Attorney Ursula Jones Dickson is expected to shed the “interim” label Tuesday night. The more interesting question is her margin of victory over recalled former District Attorney Pamela Price.
In 2024, voters removed Price from office with roughly 63 percent support for the recall. Can Jones Dickson surpass that mark? The answer is likely yes. Price’s campaign has ranged from uneven to largely invisible throughout the primary.
Whatever the outcome, Price’s next political move will become an immediate topic of speculation. After losing the 2018 district attorney primary to Nancy O’Malley, she later ran for Oakland mayor. Whether she pursues another office remains to be seen.
For Jones Dickson, victory this year would still require another campaign in 2028, when she will seek election to a full four-year term.
🗳️Early Ballots Returned
CA14: 70,596 of 422,026 (17%)
SD10: 92,012of 530,876 (17%)
Alameda County: 159,291 of 970,060 (16%)
Santa Clara County: 218,754 of 1,074,631 (20%)
Statewide: 4,221,764 of 23,133,028 (18%)
Source: PDI.
—GET THE 411 ON THE 510—
IT’S WHAT THE INSIDERS READ.
⊕MORE INSIDE
COUNTY NEWS: Miley Seeks SB 1193 update after transparency bill cruises through State Senate; $94k in allocations appears on Tuesdays agenda.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE: Form 497 large campaign contributions, and Form 6 federal 48-hour notices of contributions filed on June 1.
🎙️EAST BAY INSIDERS PODCAST
—EPISODE 133—The June primary is finally here, and we’re breaking down every major race shaping the East Bay and California politics.
—Steve Tavares is joined by special guests Rocky Fernandez, California Democratic Party Region 5 director, and former San Leandro Councilmember Lee Thomas for a wide-ranging preview of Election Day.
—The panel analyzes the wide-open race for governor, the battle to replace Eric Swalwell in the 14th Congressional District, and the closely watched Alameda County DA race.
—Plus, key Superior Court contests and Oakland’s Measure E parcel tax, which could have major implications for city services and public safety.
—Listen on Substack or download episodes at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
🆕CLICK HERE FOR NOVEMBER CANDIDATE LIST
COUNTY NEWS
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
—SB 1193—Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley is requesting an update from county staff Tuesday on Senate Bill 1193, the government transparency measure authored by state Sen. Aisha Wahab that targets the Board of Supervisors’ discretionary spending.
—As has become increasingly common with the Board of Supervisors, the agenda item comes with no accompanying staff report. Instead, the agenda attachment consists of a single page stating only: “oral presentation.”
—The latest update is straightforward: SB 1193 passed the State Senate on May 21 by a unanimous 37-0 vote without debate, and head to the Assembly for further consideration.
—Behind the scenes, however, Alameda County officials have continued lobbying members of the East Bay’s Assembly delegation in an effort to slow or stop the bill’s progress.
—The measure would require additional disclosure and reporting requirements for supervisors’ individual discretionary funds.
—Outside of repeated efforts by Supervisors David Haubert and Miley to rally opposition to the legislation, there appears to be little public appetite to challenge a bill centered on government transparency.
—GRANDSTANDING OP—The appearance of an update on Senate Bill 1193 on Tuesday’s agenda may provide Supervisors Nate Miley and David Haubert another opportunity to argue that the current system for distributing discretionary funds to local nonprofits and community groups serves a valuable public purpose.
—In total, $94,300 in discretionary allocations are being proposed on Tuesday’s agenda:
💵Supervisors’ Discretionary Funding Allocations - June 1 agenda
Elisa Marquez - $30,750 in District 2 prior year savings
David Haubert - $29,700 in District 1 FY25-26 budget
Nate Miley - $22,000 in District 4 prior year savings
Lena Tam - $11,850 of District 3 prior year savings
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
—💰MONEYBALL—Form 497 large campaign contributions, and Form 6 federal 48-hour notices of contributions filed on June 1:
ALAMEDA COUNTY
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS - DISTRICT 2
—Elisa Marquez for County Supervisor 2026, Dignity CA Service Employees International Union SEIU Local 2015, $15,000; Drive Committee, $5,000; North Coast States Regional Council of Carpenters Powers, $5,000. TOTAL: $25,000.
DISTRICT ATTORNEY
—Friends of Ursula Jones Dickson for District Attorney 2026, UA Local 342 Steamfitters PAC, $5,700; International Association of Firefighters Local 55, $5,555; DRIVE Committee, $5,000; Quyen Ta of Berkeley, $2,000; Eleanor Moses of Albany, $1,000; Isaac Kos-Read of Oakland, $1,000. TOTAL: $20,255.
BOARD OF EDUCATION - AREA 4
—Aisha Knowles for ACOE Trustee 2026, Association of Pleasanton Teachers PAC, $6,172. TOTAL: $6,172.
CASTRO VALLEY USD - MEASURE B BOND
—Yes on B for CVUSD 2026, Verde Design Inc. of Santa Clara, $5,000; Lou Lagomarsino of Scottsdale, Ariz., $2,500; Blach Construction of San Jose, $2,500; MicroEstimating Inc. of San Francisco, $1,500; Philip Newsom of Walnut Creek, $1,200; Underwood & Rosenblum, Inc. of San Jose, $1,000. TOTAL: $13,700.
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE ASSEMBLY - 14TH DISTRICT
—Buffy Wicks for Assembly 2026, Benjamin West of Berkeley, $11,800; Molson Coors Beverage Company USA LLC, $3,000; Maplebear Inc. d/b/a Instacart, $2,500; McDonald’s USA, LLC, $2,000. TOTAL: $19,300.
STATE ASSEMBLY - 16TH DISTRICT
—Rebecca Bauer-Kahan for Assembly 2026, Benjamin West of Berkeley, $11,800. TOTAL: $11,800.
STATE ASSEMBLY - 18TH DISTRICT
—Mia Bonta for Assembly 2026, Service Employees International Union SEIU Local 2015 State PAC, $5,900; California Nurses Association PAC, $4,300. TOTAL: $10,200.
STATE ASSEMBLY - 20TH DISTRICT
—Liz Ortega-Toro for Assembly 2026, Sheet Metal Workers Local Union 104 Political Committee, $3,000; Sheet Metal Workers 104 District 2 Small Contributor Committee, $2,900. TOTAL: $5,900.
CONGRESS
17TH DISTRICT
—Ro Khanna for Congress, Inc., Hari Bayireddi of Chalfont, Penn., $3,500; Ramya Bayireddi of Chalfont, Penn., $3,500; Ashok Bhatt of Houston, $3,500. TOTAL: $10,500.
