ELECTION 2022
ALAMEDA COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
—SUPERB IN THE BURBS—Winning the June primary in Alameda County proved to be mostly a curse. Among the big June races, only Pamela Price parlayed a June victory into success in November.
—In the eagerly-anticipated Alameda County Board of Supervisors race in District 3, Lena Tam reversed opponent Rebecca Kaplan’s 13-point advantage in June to a four-point win November. That’s a sizable net turnaround of 17 points. So how did she do it?
—The District 3 supervisorial seat has long been called, alternately, the “Asian seat” on the Board of Supervisors, and the “Alameda seat.” Tam checked both boxes and both descriptions fueled Tam’s big upset in November.
—Tam posted especially strong numbers in Alameda, but she dominated on Bay Farm Island, which has a high concentration of Asian voters, in particular, those with single-family homes. Bay Farm voters are also generally moderate. On the city side of electoral politics, Bay Farm’s moderate voters have shown signs of reversing a decade-long shift to the left in Alameda.
—It’s no surprise that Tam, a former Alameda councilmember who last served in office eight years ago, and backed by landlords, was able to connect with Asian homeowners. Tam had a slight June advantage in Bay Farm over Kaplan, but she expanded it in November to clear majorities. Voters for another Asian American candidate in the primary, David Kakishiba, and the roughly 15-20 percent of the vote he received in Bay Farm last June, likely transferred their support to Tam in November, according to the maps.
BAY FARM-ALAMEDA
JUNE PRIMARY
Tam 48.43%
Kaplan 26.14%
Kakishiba 19.59%
Grant 5.84%
NOVEMBER RUNOFF
Tam 70.15%
Kaplan 29.85%
—Overall, Alameda was a big loss for Kaplan in November. The Oakland councilmember did well on the island in the primary, but lost the advantage in the fall. The map also shrunk for Kaplan in Southern San Leandro and the unincorporated areas of the district. Kaplan even lost portions of Oakland’s Chinatown that she had won in June.
—Like Bay Farm in Alameda, San Leandro’s coastal community of Heron Bay shares a similar demographic of Asian American homeowners. Tam’s big win was also fueled in Heron Bay and neighboring precincts. While Tam narrowly notched a June primary win in the Heron Bay precinct, she lost to Kaplan in nearby areas.
—By November, Tam had not only consolidated her primary opponents support in Heron Bay but racked up similar advantages in nearby precincts.
HERON BAY-SAN LEANDRO
JUNE PRIMARY
Kaplan 36.96%
Tam 35.14%
Grant 14.13%
Kakishiba 13.77%
NOVEMBER RUNOFF
Tam 63.59%
Kaplan 36.41%
—Tam ran a cohesive fall campaign strategy, while Kaplan did not. Early questions of whether the extremely Oakland-centric Kaplan really understood the rest of district were not readily apparent in June, but definitely became a problem in the November runoff.
—Tam hammered Kaplan on public safety and sidestepped her own support from landlords. Meanwhile, Kaplan highlighted her own role in creating legislation in Oakland to combat illegal guns, but this strategy only reminded Alameda, San Leandro, and San Lorenzo voters about Oakland’s chronic public safety issues.
—Kaplan then attempted to link Tam and landlords. The assertion that Tam and landlord supporters would evicted scores of District 3 residents didn’t work as planned. The strategy likely hardened support for Kaplan in many parts of San Leandro, but its surprisingly did little in Alameda, which is more robustly organized with pro-renter groups than San Leandro.
—Where Tam outsmarted Kaplan on the rental housing issue was in unincorporated San Lorenzo. Although the unincorporated areas are devoid of strong renters’ rights, Tam smartly recognized San Lorenzo voters residing in a mostly bedroom community are not as keen about rent stabilization as residents in nearby unincorporated areas (but in another supervisorial district) that are some of the most impoverished in Alameda County. The results show Tam gained ground in San Lorenzo.
—In the end, although Tam headed into the fall runoff with a considerable deficit, she ran a disciplined campaign that turned out a mix of Asian voters and homeowners, in general, and simply showing she understood District Three’s voters much better than Kaplan.
CITY NEWS
OAKLAND
—CALL FOR RECOUNT—The Oakland NAACP wants a recount in the city’s very close mayoral election. Sheng Thao defeated Loren Taylor by a slim 677 votes last month, a margin that is less than one percent of the entire votes cast.
—“Based on the closeness of this race and no automatic recount process the Oakland NAACP supports community calls for a recount in this election,” the Oakland NAACP said in a statement on Tuesday. “Ranked Choice Voting appears to have caused a disparate impact on Blacks and other minority voters, effectively reducing their participation.”
—A major hindrance to any recount in Alameda County is cost. At this point, there isn’t a group willing to foot the bill and it’s probably too late. Last week, the Alameda County Registrar of Votes certified the election.
—MASK UP—Oakland Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan wants Oakland City Hall to return to masking protocols as the number of Covid-19, influenza, and respiratory virus cases have slowly increased recently.
—Kaplan’s is hoping to place the resolution on the Oakland City Council agenda for Dec. 20. As Covid-19 cases dwindled about a year ago, Kaplan has consistently advocated for a slow rollback of masking protocols.
COUNTY NEWS
—VAXXERS SPEAK OUT—A number of public commenters urged the Alameda County Board of Supervisors this morning to reject a number of items to fund additional Covid-19 vaccine services, including money for mobile outreach clinics.
—Some county supervisors felt compelled to show their support today for people continuing to get vaccinated, and the county health service’s role in administering shots.
—Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley said he understands receiving the vaccine is a personal choice, but he added to the protesting speakers, “Your comments are not universally shared.”
