Looking Ahead to June
The road to the East Bay electing a new member of Congress and new state senator begins
☕️MORNING BUZZ
Vol. VI, No. 1,229
ELECTION 2026
68 days to Primary Election Day
—Voters across the East Bay will take the first step toward electing a new member of Congress and send a new state senator to Sacramento this June.
Another East Bay official that may be eyeing a run for president could use this election cycle to serve as a training ground for 2028.
And a small, but important slate of local ballot measures this June cut to the core of public finance, school funding, and political structure.
🟢14TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: Rep. Eric Swalwell will end his 14-year tenure representing the East Bay this year as he runs for governor, setting off a crowded race to succeed him. Nine candidates are in the field—six Democrats, two Republicans, and one No Party Preference candidate.
The presumed frontrunner is Aisha Wahab, long seen as heir to the Hayward, Tri-Valley, and Tri-Cities seat. The more competitive battle may be for second place. Among the leading contenders are Melissa Hernández, Rakhi Israni, and Matt Ortega.
Ortega appears to be running with the clearest understanding of the race’s dynamics—that June is effectively a contest for second place. Israni, who announced in January that she had quickly raised $2 million, has faced repeated attacks from Ortega over her ties to Republicans and right-wing Indian nationalist groups.
Those criticisms have coincided with a lower public profile from Israni in recent weeks, while Hernandez’s campaign has leaned heavily on local endorsements—an approach that may carry less weight in a congressional race.
Despite the high stakes, the candidates have said little about the substantive federal issues the next member of Congress would confront—from economic pressures like rising energy and food costs to international conflicts. This could be a signal that the primary and general election campaigns will turn negative.
🟢10TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT: In the unusual landscape of Bay Area politics—where Democrats dominate nearly every level of government—one spot in the top-two primary for the open 10th State Senate District seat may already be spoken for: the lone Republican in the race, Linda Price.
The dynamic mirrors the 2022 primary for the California’s 25th Assembly District. In that race, Republican Bob Brunton advanced out of a crowded and evenly matched Democratic field, while Democrat Alex Lee narrowly secured the second spot with just 15% of the vote. With few Republican voters in the district, Lee went on to defeat Brunton easily in the general election.
A similar scenario could play out this June in the 10th State Senate District, which runs from Hayward to Sunnyvale. The leading Democrats appear to be Anne Kepner, a South Bay community college trustee; and Scott Sakakihara, a Union City councilmember. Their matchup could reflect a regional divide, with Alameda County—holding a slightly larger share of the district—pitted against Santa Clara County.
Labor is showing signs of backing Kepner, which is an important data point for determining success at the ballot box in the East Bay.
As of now, Kepner and Sakakihara have self-financed their campaigns, giving each a leg up on three other elected officials in the field—San Jose Councilmember David Cohen, and Fremont Councilmember Raymond Liu. Milpitas Mayor Carmen Montano has been in the race for nearly a year after planning to challenge 10th District State Sen. Aisha Wahab, who is now running for congress.
🟢GOVERNOR: Only two governors in California history have a direct connection to Alameda County—Jerry Brown and Earl Warren. The third could be Eric Swalwell.
According to countless polls in recent months, we’re a long way from knowing who will be in the driver’s seat to be the next governor. Although Swalwell sits in the top-tier of Democrats in the field, his poll numbers appear to have reached a plateau, roughly between 10 percent and 13 percent of those surveyed. His opponent’s numbers have also remained unchanged.
Swalwell has been a darling of the mainstream press since he burst on the political scene in 2012. He’s been able to brush off questions about his poor attendance record in Congress, along with the validity of his residency in California.
There are murmurs of a gathering storm that could crater his campaign. Swalwell’s reputation as a liberal Lothario after his election to Congress is well known in the Beltway and among Alameda County insiders. Opposition research from several campaigns are rumored to have been sorting through the muck of his days as a bachelor in Congress. In recent days, a number of unverified accounts of Swalwell’s tawdry past have been posted on X.
KCRA in Sacramento reported this week that Swalwell’s previous campaign spent more than $300,000 on legal fees from 2016 to 2023.
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🟢17TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: Rep. Ro Khanna is expected to win the primary—and ultimately re-election—by a wide margin in the Fremont- and Silicon Valley–based 17th District.
The more telling storyline is how Khanna responds to sharper attacks from Democrat Ethan Agarwal, who is likely a distant second-place finish in June. As Khanna’s national profile continues to grow—and with speculation about a potential 2028 presidential run—he is beginning to draw criticism from multiple directions.
That scrutiny is already emerging. Gavin Newsom, another possible 2028 contender, took a swipe at Khanna last week. This primary could offer an early glimpse of how Khanna handles political pressure as he edges closer to the national stage.
🟢BALLOT MEASURES: Eight ballot measures will appear on the June ballot across six jurisdictions, including four parcel taxes (Hayward Unified School District, Piedmont Unified School District, Peralta Community College District, and Oakland) along with two charter amendments (Oakland and San Leandro), and a school bond measure (Castro Valley Unified School District).
The highest-profile measure is in Oakland, where voters will decide on a $192 annual parcel tax on single-family homes. If approved, it’s expected to generate about $34 million in new revenue to help address the city’s ongoing fiscal challenges. In San Leandro, voters will consider a charter amendment to allow fully district-based elections, a change that could reshape the City Council beginning in November.
🟢ASSEMBLY: There’s not much to say about the five East Bay assembly races this June, and barring a resignation or leap to higher office, don’t expect any competitive races until at least 2030.
Under the Legislature’s 12-year cycle, Assemblymembers Buffy Wicks and Rebecca Bauer Kahan will be termed out in 2030. Assemblymember Alex Lee is termed out in 2032, and Assemblymembers Mia Bonta and Liz Ortega can serve until 2034.
But the political winds are hard to discern and often shift hard and without notice. Six months ago, nobody expected Rep. Eric Swalwell’s seat and State Sen. Aisha Wahab’s seat would be open this June.
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CAMPAIGN FINANCE
—💰MONEYBALL—Form 497 large campaign contributions filed on March 26:
ALAMEDA COUNTY
DISTRICT ATTORNEY
—Re-Elect Pamela Price for DA 2026, Thurman White of San Mateo, $1,000. TOTAL: $1,000.
SUPERIOR COURT JUDGE
—Cabral Bonner for Alameda County Judge 2026, Christine Schnebly of Hailey, Mary., $1,000. TOTAL: $1,000.
OAKLAND
—Barbara Lee for Oakland Mayor 2026, American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees-Council 57 PAC, $500. TOTAL: $500.
PERALTA COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT
—Friends of Peralta Colleges 2026 - Yes on Measure A, Sprinkler Fitters & Apprentices Local 483 Legislative PAC, $5,000. TOTAL: $5,000.
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE ASSEMBLY
—Alex Lee for State Assembly 2026, California Federation of Teachers COPE, $2,500. TOTAL: $2,500.
—Mia Bonta for Assembly 2026, Medical Insurance Exchange Of California, $1,500. TOTAL: $1,500.
—Rebecca Bauer-Kahan for Assembly 2026, Professional Engineers in California Government PECG PAC, $1,000. TOTAL: $1,000.
