Loren Taylor leads Barbara Lee in close Oakland mayor's race
Charlene Wang is heading to victory in the Oakland City Council District 2 race; Oakland voters overwhelmingly support half-cent sales tax increase
☕️MORNING BUZZ
OAKLAND MAYOR
—Loren Taylor’s campaign for mayor went from what most believe was improbable to possible on Tuesday night.
Taylor’s underdog campaign in Oakland’s special mayoral election against Barbara Lee, a progressive icon in one of the most progressive cities in the country, is poised for a major upset.
Taylor leads Lee in first-place votes by two-and-a-half percentage points, as of Tuesday’s night tally, a margin of 1,220 votes.
Taylor achieves a simple majority of the vote after nine rounds of ranked choice voting tabulations, as of Tuesday night. The ranked choice margin of victory is 1,118 votes, about 100 votes less than the difference in first-place votes
Loren Taylor 24,347 votes, 51.17%
Barbara Lee 23,229 votes, 48.83%
Only two updates were posted by the Alameda County Registrar’s office on Tuesday night. The initial update had Taylor leading Lee by just over four percentage points, before dropping one-and-a-half percent in the second update.
The latest results are promising for Lee’s campaign, but lower than expected turnout may hamper her chances of making a comeback.
—Lee has three pressing issues:
There simply may not be enough outstanding ballots remaining to fuel a complete reversal of the current spread. Just over 49,000 ballots have been counted, which is roughly the same amount of ballots that were received by Monday morning. Lee is hoping a large influx of ballots were sent on Monday and Tuesday, and greater numbers come from the flatlands.
Taylor and Lee combined to win a whopping 94 percent of first-place votes. The remaining six percent is spread among eight candidates. Six of the 10 candidates failed to break one percent, as of Tuesday night. That means the pool of potential second-place votes transferring to Lee is not very deep.
Tyron Jordan, the surprise third-place finisher who suspended his campaign, is a potential bright spot for Lee. Jordan’s second-place votes broke heavily to Lee. But the gains are cancelled out by Republican Mindy Pechenuk, whose supporters greatly backed Taylor with second-place votes. Support from four other candidates—Renia Webb, Peter Liu, Eric Simpson, and Suz Robinson—transferred to Lee’s column, but only in small numbers.
The electoral map is also concerning for Lee. Turnout is low, but turnout in the Oakland Hills appears to be outpacing the rest of the city. The early results show Taylor dominating in the hills. Lee, meanwhile, is posting equally strong numbers in North Oakland and other areas of the flatlands. Lee needs a majority of late-arriving ballots to skew towards addresses in the flatlands.
OAKLAND CITY COUNCIL - DISTRICT 2
—Charlene Wang has faced electoral adversity in the recent past, losing a bid last fall for the at-large council seat.
Roughly six months later, Wang is poised to become the next council representative for District 2, after posting a simple majority of first-place votes, as of Tuesday night.
Wang will serve the remainder of Nikki Fortunato Bas’ council term through the end of 2026. The likely win for Wang also spells the end of Rebecca Kaplan’s tenure on the city council. Kaplan has served as the interim District 2 councilmembers since December.
The dominating performance by Wang also represents a big loss for labor, which strongly backed Kara Murray-Badal, a virtual unknown prior to this special elections.
MEASURE A
—One of the last remaining truisms in Alameda County politics held firm on Tuesday night: Oaklanders absolutely love tax measures.
Despite some worries among insiders, Measure A, the half-cent sales tax increase, is cruising to victory, as of Tuesday night’s results.
With a hemorrhaging budget, the estimated $20 million in new annual revenues is a welcome development. Electoral maps indicate that support for Measure A is quite consistent across the city.
EAST BAY INSIDERS TV
—East Bay Insiders TV debuted on Tuesday. For more on Oakland’s Special Election, check out the live Results Show below featuring myself, Shawn Wilson, Dan Mendoza, and Lee Thomas:
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
—💰MONEYBALL—Form 497 large campaign contributions filed on April 15:
OAKLAND
SPECIAL MAYORAL ELECTION
—Barbara Lee, Black Women Organized For Political Action State PAC, $1,300; Service Employees International Union SEIU Local 2015 State PAC, $1,127. TOTAL: $2,427.
—Responsible Leadership for Oakland: Elect Loren Taylor for Mayor 2025, Empower Oakland Committee, $5,000. TOTAL: $5,000.
—🧾EXPENDITURES—Form 496 Independent Expenditure Reports filed on April 15:
SPECIAL MAYORAL ELECTION
—Loren Taylor, Responsible Leadership for Oakland: Elect Loren Taylor for Mayor 2025. 👍SUPPORT (Video advertisements—$15,000). TOTAL: $15,000. (Cumulative amount spent: $379,440.)
