Major hit pieces arrive in Alameda County races just days before Election Day
Two East Bay legislative primary races rank among the Top 10 in the entire state in IE spending
ELECTION 2022
—Money from Independent Expenditure Committees has been flowing to East Bay primary races at an almost unprecedented rate over the past two months. Alameda County voters have seen the product of profligate spending in the form of countless mailers and digital ads. The amount of attention IEs are placing on the East Bay is somewhat unique to this area during this primary season.
—In fact, two contested legislative races in the East Bay this spring are among the Top 10 highest IE-spending races in the entire state. At $2.08 million and counting the open 10th State Senate District race featuring Hayward Councilmember Aisha Wahab and Fremont Mayor Lily Mei is the fourth-highest in state behind the contested 80th Assembly District race in Southern California ($3.3 million), the State Attorney General race including the East Bay’s Rob Bonta ($3.2 million), and the State Superintendent of Public Instruction race, also including the East Bay’s Tony Thurmond ($2.2 million).
—The contested 20th Assembly District primary between labor leader Liz Ortega, Dublin Councilmember Shawn Kumagai, and Registered Nurse Jennifer Esteen ranks seventh on the list with $1.33 million spent by IEs. The nearby 24th Assembly District race involving Assemblymember Alex Lee ranks fourteenth on the list, but the sudden influx of an IE backed landlord and developer money against Lee’s progressive housing platform is likely to boost this race up the rankings.
—There’s potential for the amount of spending in the state AG and superintendent races going forward drying up based on which candidates face incumbents Bonta and Thurmond in November. The highly-contested 80th Assembly District race to replace Lorena Gonzalez will probably retain its spot atop of this list through November.
—Meanwhile, the three high-IE-spending races in the East Bay are likely to continue to attract IEs anxious to use these races as proxies for influential groups like labor unions and landlords to do battle in November. This is especially true if the November matchups are Wahab vs. Mei in SD10; Ortega vs. Kumagai in AD20; and Lee vs. Kansen Chu or Teresa Keng in AD24. All three would include a progressive generally backed by labor unions against a candidate backed by landlords and developers.
—VOTER TURNOUT—The June primary outcome for East Bay races in the Alameda County District Attorney and Alameda County District 3 Board of Supervisors could be especially sensitive to low voter turnout.
—Statewide, voters don’t seem to be in a hurry to send in their ballots. Just 10 percent of registered voters have returned their ballot to county registrars, as of Thursday, according to Political Data, Inc.
In Alameda County, only 96,536 ballots have been returned out of 934,669 registered voters, as of Thursday, according to Political Data, Inc. This matches the statewide 10 percent mark. Two-thirds of the ballots returned in Alameda County are from registered Democrats.
Alameda County Ballots Returned By Party
Democrat 65,235
No Party Preference/Other 20,363
Republican 11,289
—Recent primary election turnout has been uneven. The March 2020 primary, because it included a high-profile Presidential primary, was an anomaly, with voter turnout of 51.19 percent. Four years ago, the 2018 June primary attracted 39.73 percent turnout and with more than two-thirds choosing the vote-by-mail method. It’s a benchmark that the upcoming 2022 June primary was expected to rival.
—Progressive candidates courting voters in areas like Oakland and Berkeley this June could be at a disadvantage. Most prominently, Rebecca Kaplan in the Alameda County Board of Supervisors race in District 3, and Pamela Price in the Alameda County District Attorney campaign.
—Kaplan is the Oakland candidate for the District 3 seat. That could be a problem because Oakland voters don’t have much elsewhere on their ballot to be energized about other than a library services parcel tax that should easily pass on June 7.
—Price’s 2018 result in the Alameda County DA’s race was fueled by progressives in Oakland and Berkeley. Like Oakland, Berkeley voters may not be paying much attention in the primary, although they typically have good turnout. Conversely, if candidates like Kaplan and Price advance to November runoffs, both of these cities will have high-profile local races to grab voters’ attention. Oakland with a mayoral race and three city council contests, and Berkeley with four city council races.
—MUD-SLINGING COMMENCES—The first two items in today’s newsletter are merely a set-up for the hard-charging late moves some campaigns and Independent Expenditure Committees are making in advance of the final weekend before Primary Day next Tuesday.
20TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—If you thought the hit piece sent earlier this month by Alameda County District Attorney candidate Jimmie Wilson against opponent Terry Wiley was nasty, check this out:
—The mailer arrived in the mailboxes of 20th Assembly District voters today, and is the work of Future PAC, a group backed by charter schools, prison guard unions, and landlords. The PAC reported a $43,595 expenditure for a mailer on Thursday that is likely to be this hit piece.
—Until this mailer, Future PAC has focused primarily on supporting 20th Assembly District candidates Shawn Kumagai to the tune of nearly $150,000. The IE is one of nine that have spent in total nearly $900,000 during this primary.
—The issue of personal finances is typically viewed as a very low blow for the subject of a hit piece, but it doesn’t necessarily mean the group delivering the blow is doing so out of weakness. This type of mailer has been used from time to time in East Bay elections. Most notably a decade ago, when Nadia Lockyer’s campaign for Alameda County supervisor highlighted opponent Liz Figueroa’s past financial troubles.
—Lockyer’s campaign sent the mailer from a position of strength and easily won the election. Same thing could be happening here with Future PAC believing they might be able to knock Liz Ortega and Jennifer Esteen out of the top two in favor of the lone Republican Joe Grcar. Doing so would amount to certain victory for Kumagai in November.
—ALLY HUNTING—The likely next Speaker of Assembly is looking ahead for potential allies. Salinas Assemblymember Robert Rivas contributed $4,900 on Thursday to Liz Ortega’s campaign.
—IE ACTION—Meanwhile, California Workers' Justice Coalition sponsored by Service Employees International Union Local 1021 spent $12,500 on digital ads in support of Jennifer Esteen on Thursday.
24TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—MA! THE MEATLOAF?!!!—On a more humorous note, another IE that has been very aggressive in trying to unseat 24th District Assemblymember Alex Lee, sent a denigrating mailer opposing his re-election on Wednesday.
—The mailer sent earlier this week by Housing Providers for Responsible Solutions pictures Lee with a cat and describes him as a “Socialist Democrat who ‘lives with his mom’” and “Plays with monkeys and Minecraft at work—not solving problems.”
—The mailer is a clear attempt by the IE to diminish Lee and use the 26-year-old, first-term assemblymember’s light-hearted personality against him. The piece also attempts to paint Lee’s opponents, Kansen Chu and Teresa Keng in more mature terms.
—Housing Providers for Responsible Solutions clearly smells blood against Lee, a fervent supporters of affordable housing and renters. They have spent more than $1 million to oppose Lee and favor his three Democratic opponents.
ALAMEDA COUNTY SHERIFF
—Yesenia Sanchez’s campaign is finally making a pointed case for not re-electing Alameda County Sheriff Greg Ahern. But is it too little, too late? Perhaps, no. Especially with so many unreturned ballots sitting on kitchen tables across Alameda County.
“Enough is enough. Republican-endorsed Sheriff Greg Ahern needs to go,” blares the mailer that began showing up in mailboxes on Thursday. The piece includes a photo of Ahern wearing a black cowboy hat and carrying a comically large rifle that might be used to hunt the last remaining Jedi in Alameda County.
—The mailer hits all the notes that should have been hammered into voters minds since last January—Ahern’s link to Republicans, Donald Trump, Oath Keepers, and troubles at Santa Rita Jail. Any elected official with just one of these issues hanging over them would face trouble getting re-elected. But most believe Ahern is sitting in a good position. However, it seems like Ahern’s campaign has taken a foot off the pedal down the stretch, which could leave an opening for Sanchez’s more aggressive campaigning of late.
—LATINOS FOR AHERN—United Latinos Vote PAC is making a move in support of Alameda County Sheriff Greg Ahern, Alameda County District Attorney candidate Jimmie Wilson, while opposing one of Wilson’s opponents, Pamela Price.
—The PAC, whose funding source is unknown, reported expenditures on Wednesday, including a $16,000 mailer in support of Ahern, a $5,300 mailer in support of Wilson, and $2,500 to oppose Price for what is described as “design and manage ads.”
—Interestingly, United Latinos Vote PAC spent $1,195 on Wednesday for a mailer supporting State Attorney General Rob Bonta’s campaign.
10TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—UPLIFTING THE REPUBLICAN—State Attorney General Rob Bonta and Malia Cohen, a Democratic candidate for state controller, are among some of the primary candidates hoping to benefit from the chronically-weak California Republican Party. The mailer below sent by an IE targets voters worried about the future of Roe v. Wade, highlights Cohen’s support and Planned Parenthood endorsement, while potentially enticing conservatives to boost Republican Lanhee Chen to a spot in the two top November elections, where he would likely be defeated.
—A different IE is using the same design and message in the East Bay’s 10th State Senate District primary. A mailer sent in recent days by the IE named Opportunity PAC boosts Democratic candidate Aisha Wahab’s stance in favor of Roe v. Wade, while highlighting the opposition of Paul Pimentel, the lone Republican in the field. A second, very similar, mailer was also sent to 10th District voters this week.
—Until now, Pimentel has been mostly absent from this race. Pimentel has shown some fundraising of late, but finance reports show his campaign is self-financed with little actual spending.
—Opportunity PAC has largely been spending in opposition of Wahab’s top opponent, Fremont Mayor Lily Mei, over the past month. The shift toward Pimentel may indicate the IE believes Wahab has secured a spot in the top two November election and is taking a shot at edging Mei out in favor of Pimentel. Like all East Bay races involving unknown, underfunded Republicans, any matchup between a Democrat and Pimentel in November will result in a rout for the Democrat.
—IE ACTION—Similar to Esteen in the 20th Assembly District, California Workers' Justice Coalition sponsored by Service Employees International Union Local 1021 spent $12,500 on Thursday for digital ads in support of Aisha Wahab.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE ROUNDUP
—MONEYBALL—Here’s a roundup of Form 497 Late Contributions from Thursday through Friday afternoon:
—Lena Tam (Alameda County Board of Supervisors-District 3), California Apartment Association Political Action Committee $20,000…
—Pamela Price (Alameda County District Attorney), Fawaz Alriashi of Hayward $1,000… Terry Wiley (Alameda County District Attorney), Michael J Morgan Hayward of $2,500; John J. Brouhard of Orinda $1,000…
—Yesenia Sanchez (Alameda County Sheriff), IBEW Local 595 PAC $1,000; Robert Wieckowski for Assembly 2024 $1,000…
—Kate Dao (Alameda County Board of Education-Area 7), Champions for Education PAC $10,000…
—Liz Ortega (20th Assembly District), Robert Rivas for Assembly 2022 $4,900… Shawn Kumagai (20th Assembly District), Southern Glazer's Wine and Spirits, LLC $2,000; CA Chamber of Commerce PAC $1,500… Jennifer Esteen (20th Assembly District), Vikrum Aiyer of San Francisco $1,000…
—Alex Lee (24th Assembly District), California Democratic Party $4,924; United Nurses Association of California/Union of Health Care Professionals PAC $4,900; My Lam $1,000… Teresa Keng (24th Assembly District), Mary Liu of Davis $2,000…
—Aisha Wahab (10th State Senate District), California State Pipe Trades Council PAC $5,000…
—Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (16th Assembly District), Nathaniel Simons of Berkeley $4,900; The Procter & Gamble Company $1,500…