Mayor Watch: Oakland, San Leandro, and Alameda mayoral races are heating up
Sheng Thao releases new ad; IE supporting Ortega-Toro makes a massive mailer buy
ELECTION 2022
Days until Election Day: 47. Days until ballots are sent: 18.
—MAYOR’S OFFICE—Earlier this year, it appeared as if the East Bay’s 2022 fall election would be loaded with pivotal mayoral contests. As a whole, it didn’t shake out that way. Two Tri-Valley incumbent mayors are running unopposed, and the next mayor of Hayward will win the office only because nobody else wanted to run for the open seat.
—What remains is still significant. Three up-for-grabs races in Oakland, the county’s largest city, along with San Leandro, Livermore, and an Alameda mayoral race worth keeping an eye on is heating up. But first, let’s take the temperature of two of these mayoral races.
POLLING
—SURVEY SAYS—For sure, there’s a dearth of verifiable polling data out there. A so-called Power Poll conducted by my former East Bay Express boss is not a poll, but a periodic survey of Oakland insiders from a broad swath of the city’s power structure.
—The poll showed Loren Taylor with a commanding lead with nearly a 50 percent plus one threshold needed for victory. Perhaps the informal poll was tilted toward business leaders?
—There are rumors of another poll that also shows Taylor in first place, followed by Sheng Thao, and Ignacio De La Fuente. While there may be credence for the two rumored results they are unlikely to hold. Labor unions are ready to unleash a significant campaign in support of Thao. This effort will undoubtedly narrow the gap and possibly thrust Thao to the top of any future polling.
—Meanwhile, there’s far more meat to a poll that was conducted earlier this month in the San Leandro mayoral race that reportedly cost $30,000. The price tag suggests the poll was significant and wide-ranging, but specifics are hard to come by.
—What is known is it showed Bryan Azevedo and Juan Gonzalez in a virtual neck-and-neck tie with support in the low 30 percent range. Lee Thomas is trailing the duo, according to those who have seen the poll, but is within striking distance.
—The polling starts to answer some questions about this race. While it proves Azevedo persistent two-year-plus campaign for mayor has gained strong support, it also begs the question of whether greater scrutiny of his campaign and his curious public persona over the past few months is beginning to suppress his support. In addition, it’s a great result for Gonzalez, who has never held elected office and was virtually unknown until this campaign.
OAKLAND MAYOR
—THAO TV—Loren Taylor released a well-received 30-second television ad last week. Now, it’s Sheng Thao’s turn. Her campaign released a biographical commercial on Thursday that highlights her story of living in poverty, surviving domestic violence, and her rise in Oakland politics.
SAN LEANDRO MAYOR
—INCOHERENT—The title of the television ad for Loren Taylor in Oakland is “Personal.” The title for Sheng Thao’s ad is “Determined.” If there was an ad in San Leandro opposing mayoral candidate Bryan Azevedo, it might be called “Incoherent.”
—At last night’s San Leandro Chamber of Commerce candidate forum, Azevedo’s opponents, Juan Gonzalez and Lee Thomas, alternated in highlighting Azevedo’s troubles with public speaking.
—“You want a mayor that is well-spoken and coherent and can motivate and energize people,” Gonzalez said in response to a question about the role of mayor in San Leandro.
—Thomas said the mayor should be the salesperson and spokesperson for the city, before adding, “You want your mayor to have the ability to speak eloquently.” After each negative utterance, Azevedo appeared to grimace awkwardly.
—A.G. FOR L.T.—San Leandro mayoral candidate Lee Thomas made some news last night when he announced the endorsement of California Attorney General Rob Bonta, the biggest endorsement prize in East Bay electoral politics. Last week, Thomas’s campaign rolled out the support of the city’s Assemblymember Mia Bonta.
—“Endorsements don’t win elections,” Thomas said at the San Leandro Chamber forum. “But when you’ve got political people putting their name behind you, doing the job day-in and day-out, they’re saying, yes, I’m going to support Lee Thomas for mayor, they’re telling you that they believe I can do the job here as mayor.”
—Insiders say the impetus for seeking Rob Bonta’s support is a belief Azevedo is not up to the task to be mayor and Gonzalez is too conservative. Furthermore, Azevedo is likely not on good terms with the Bontas after he supported, with some vigor last year, Mia Bonta’s 18th Assembly District special election opponent Janani Ramachandran.
—WHO WANTS TO BEAT A MILLIONAIRE?—San Leandro mayoral candidate Bryan Azevedo has taken some licks, but he doled out a hit against his opponent Juan Gonzalez last weekend. Azevedo told Alameda County Democrats that Gonzalez is a millionaire with the ability to buy the mayoral election. Gonzalez was not nominated for the local party’s endorsement and was not in attendance. The party ultimately issued no endorsement in the race.
—“Juan Gonzalez, who is a millionaire, who is a business candidate that’s trying to buy the election,” Azevedo said. “So we need a candidate that can win.” The comment may have also been a reference to polling results reportedly showing the potency of Gonzalez’s campaign.
—Gonzalez loaned his campaign $21,000, or roughly one-third of his total contributions, as of the most recent campaign finance filing through June 30. If elected, Gonzalez said he plans to retire from his job as senior forensic principal for KPMG Global and serve full time as mayor.
ALAMEDA MAYOR
—ANCHORS AWAY—Alameda’s mayoral campaign, meanwhile, is just getting underway. Alameda Mayor Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft is a favorite to win re-election this fall. But opponent and Alameda Councilmember Trish Herrera Spencer is lurking. Spencer upset the city’s establishment in 2014 by becoming mayor with a massive upset against an heavily-favored incumbent.
—In fact, the last two Alameda mayoral campaigns have resulted in the incumbent falling to defeat.
—Ashcraft appears to be going all-in with highlighting her leadership during the Covid-19 pandemic. It’s a strong hand to play that surprisingly is not being used much by incumbents in other cities.
—It’s no secret that there is no love lost between Ashcraft and Spencer. They have squabbled on the council since Spencer’s election as mayor eight years ago. In fairness, the relationship has slowly improved since Ashcraft unseated Spencer as mayor in 2018.
—At the start of a candidate forum held on Wednesday night, the third member of the race, the notably named Barack D. Obama Shaw, played peacekeeper before any verbal fisticuffs began simmering. Obama Shaw acknowledged Ashcraft’s Covid response and thanked Spencer for her previous service as Alameda mayor. “I believe children are watching,” he said of the forum.
—While the forum was without much back-and-forth, Spencer said Ashcraft is behind the city’s current instability at the city manager’s office. Alameda’s city manager abruptly left last spring for the same job in Fullerton. The city is now on its second interim city manager as the search continue for a permanent leader.
—“We have a serious problem and I attribute it, sadly, to our current leadership in regards to being unable to keep a city manager or interim city manager,” Spencer said.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
—COMBINATION PUNCH—The IE supporting Rebecca Kaplan’s candidacy for Alameda County supervisor is spending $14,491 for a mailer extolling her positives, and a mailer that costs $7,972 to oppose her opponent Lena Tam.
—THAO MAILER IN THE WORKS—In addition, the formidable union-backed IE supporting Oakland mayoral candidate Sheng Thao spent nearly $60,000 for a mailer, according to a finance report filed yesterday.
—AD20 MAILER COMING—The AFSCME Local 3299 IE backing 20th Assembly District candidate Liz Ortega-Toro is readying a massive mailer campaign. “UC Berkeley Custodians, Cooks, Groundskeepers and Nurse Assistants Supporting Liz Ortega for Assembly 2022” spent $235,000 for mailers, and an additional $18,000 for digital ads, according to a finance report filed on Wednesday.
—APARTMENT UPKEEP—The California Apartment Association PAC made contributions to four East Bay campaigns on Wednesday—State Senate candidate Lily Mei, 20th Assembly candidate Shawn Kumagai, 16th District Assemblymember Rebecca Bauer-Kahan, and 18th District Assemblymember Mia Bonta. CAA also contributed $8,100 to Rob Bonta’s attorney general campaign.
—PASSING GRADES—On the other side of the ledger, the California Teachers Association/Association For Better Citizenship PAC contributed maxed-out $9,700 donations to five East Bay candidates on Thursday. They include 10th State Senate candidate Aisha Wahab, 20th Assembly District candidate Liz Ortega-Toro, and Assemblymembers Buffy Wicks, Rebecca Bauer-Kahan, and Alex Lee.
—MONEYBALL—Below is Form 497 contributions ($1,000 or more) filed Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. *-local city campaign contribution limit.
COUNTY
ALAMEDA COUNTY DEMOCRATS
—Alameda County Democratic Central Committee, Betty Yee for Treasurer 2026, $5,000; No on 26 - Taxpayers Against Special Interest Monopolies Sponsored by Licensed Card Clubs, $5,000; Rob Bonta for CA Attorney General 2022, $2,000; East Bay Young Democrats, $1,500.
ALAMEDA COUNTY DISTRICT ATTORNEY
—Terry Wiley (Alameda County District Attorney), James P. Meehan of Oakland, $5,000; Patrick J. O'Brien of Pleasanton, $1,000.
BART BOARD OF DIRECTORS
—Lance Nishihira (BART Board of Directors-Dist. 6), SEIU Local 1021 Candidate PAC, $2,500.
PERALTA COMMUNITY COLLEGE BOARD OF TRUSTEES
—Louis Quindlen (Peralta Board of Trustee-Area 3), Peralta Federation of Teachers COPE Account, $10,000.
—Seth Steward (Peralta Board of Trustee-Area 7), Peralta Federation of Teachers COPE Account, $10,000.
CITY
OAKLAND
—Oakland Rising Ballot Committee to Support Measure T & W sponsored by Center for Empowered Politics (Supporting Oakland Measure T, Measure W), Oakland Rising Committee sponsored by Center for Empowered Politics, $113,611.
ALAMEDA
—Jim Oddie (Alameda City Council), Mia Bonta for Assembly 2022; $1,500.
UNION CITY
—Jaime Patino (Union City Council-Dist. 2), Jaime Patino, $1,500.
—Chuck Kennedy (Union City Council-Dist. 2), Chuck Kennedy, $2,500.
—Yes on Z (Union City Measure Z sales tax renewal), Union City Police Officer’s Association Issues PAC, $5,000.
LIVERMORE
—Yes on G for Livermore Schools (Livermore Joint USD Measure G bond measure), Kitchell Cem, Inc. of Sacramento, $5,000; Orbach Huff & Henderson, LLP of Los Angeles, $4,000; Hibser Yamauchi Architects, Inc. of Oakland, $2,000.
—Friends Supporting Mony Nop for Mayor of Livermore 2022 (Livermore Mayor), Lyna Lam of San Francisco, $50,000.
PLEASANTON
—Committee for PUSD Students (Pleasanton USD Measure I bond measure), LPA, Inc. of Irvine, Calif., $10,000; Pleasanton Partnerships In Education Foundation, $2,000; Ann Kennedy of North Fork, Calif., $1,000; Henry P. Mohr Elementary PTA, $1,000.
—Laurie Walker (Pleasanton School Board-Area 2), Carina Cortez of Pleasanton, $1,000.
STATE LEGISLATURE
10TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—Aisha Wahab (10th State Senate District), California Teachers Association/Association For Better Citizenship, $9,700; Cristina Garcia for Secretary of State 2030, $2,000; Political Committee of IBEW Local Union No. 617, $4,900; Julia Shih of Fremont, $1,032; Jean Shih of Fremont, $1,032; Richard Alexander of San Jose, $1,000.
—Lily Mei (10th State Senate District), ChamberPAC Small Contributor Committee, Sponsored by CA Chamber of Commerce, $5,000; California Apartment Association Political Action Committee, $4,900; Lawrence Ng of San Leandro, $1,900.
20TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—Liz Ortega-Toro (20th Assembly District), California Teachers Association/Association For Better Citizenship, $9,700; Isaac Bryan for Assembly 2022, $2,500; United Food and Commercial Workers 8 Golden State PAC Small Contributor Cmte, $2,000; SEIU Committee of Interns and Resident Physician PAC, $1,400;
—Shawn Kumagai (20th Assembly District), California Apartment Association Political Action Committee, $4,900; San Francisco Laborer's Local 261 PAC, $4,800.
16TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (16th Assembly District), California Teachers Association/Association For Better Citizenship, $9,700; California Apartment Association Political Action Committee, $4,900;
18TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—Mia Bonta (18th Assembly District), California Teachers Association/Association For Better Citizenship, $9,700; California Apartment Association Political Action Committee, $4,900; Meta Platforms, Inc, $2,000; Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund, $1,500; LJ Jennings of Oakland, $1,000
14TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—Buffy Wicks (14th Assembly District), California Teachers Association/Association For Better Citizenship, $9,700; California Optometric PAC, $2,000.
24TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—Alex Lee (24th Assembly District), California Teachers Association/Association For Better Citizenship, $9,700;
