Primary Election Day is here! Here's what to watch for after the ballots are counted
Listen to the East Bay Insiders Live on Twitter Spaces tonight after 8 p.m.
ELECTION 2022
—Voter turnout in Alameda County and statewide is expected to be disappointingly low. The last reported share of ballots returned to the Alameda County registrar is 13 percent, but that figure has not been updated since Sunday. It’s clear that many voters are either distracted during this primary season or simply not energized by any high-profiles issues.
—However, it’s likely a large number of ballots will have been returned in just the last day, and up until tonight. Predicting the overall turnout is difficult, but somewhere in the vicinity of 25-30 percent seems safe. That would mean around half of those who returned a ballot did so at the last minute, which could significantly change the outcome of several races in Alameda County.
—As for tonight, the polls close at 8 p.m. In prior years, that means the first batch of results are usually released within the next 30 minutes. That initial tranche of ballots may not be indicative of the final result as in previous years. That’s because those ballots represent the electorate that returned a ballot over the past month. A lot has happened in this East Bay primary season. For example, Terry Wiley’s campaign for Alameda County District Attorney looked pretty solid a month ago before opponent Jimmie Wilson sent a mailer raising questions about his parenting, among other issues. In addition, IE’s have blown up your mailbox and recycling bin with mailers.
—Also, it’s not likely that we will have any definitive winners tonight, although we will definitely begin to see the contours of how these races might shake out. It’s going to take several days, and maybe a week, before winners are determined. Over the next few days, don’t be surprised to see dramatic changes in who is in first place and who is battling for the second spot in the November election with each release of new results from the registrar’s office. In addition, there always seems to be one race where the difference in votes is a very small number.
—Here’s what to look for in each of the big Alameda County races tonight: The big overriding theme of this primary election is how in so many instances its been a proxy war between labor unions and real estate interests. In the East Bay, we don’t have the standard Democrat vs. Republican/Left vs. Right narrative. Instead, our political spectrum starts at the far left and ends at the center, meaning a moderate candidate is our version of a Republican. The labor union vs. real estate interests is another name for this divide.
—In the East Bay, it’s pretty clear which candidate is pro-labor, but it’s not always as simple figuring out the pro-developer/landlord candidate. Over the course of this primary, the IEs red-flagged the pro-developer/landlord candidates for voters, listed below with their labor-backed opponents.
Shawn Kumagai-AD20 (Liz Ortega/Jennifer Esteen)
Lily Mei- SD10 (Aisha Wahab)
Teresa Keng/Kansen Chu-AD24 (Alex Lee)
Lena Tam-ALCO BOS D3 (Rebecca Kaplan)
—We’ll see tonight if the labor union vs. real estate dynamic continues on to the November election. There’s a good chance it does. Each of these four races above have a high probability for continuing this proxy war. If it occurs in the three state legislative races, then expect the amount of IE spending to further skyrocket in the fall. The 10th State Senate; and 20th and 24th Assembly District races are among the Top 10 highest ID-spending races in the entire state during the primary.
—More primary questions to be answered: ALAMEDA COUNTY DA: It’s almost a certainty this four-candidate race heads to a November runoff. But which two will advance is a difficult question. Does Pamela Price benefit enough from having high voter ID that follows being on the ballot so many times? Will the big-time fundraising by Terry Wiley and Jimmie Wilson, push one or both into the runoff? Where does Seth Steward play in all of this?
ALAMEDA COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS: The District 3 race for the late Wilma Chan’s seat has been boring, but because of the enormous amount of uncertainty about the direction of the race, the results might be the most interesting in the entire primary. Has developer money put Lena Tam into an expected November runoff? Almost every part of this district has a homegrown candidate. Who does Alameda, San Leandro, Chinatown/Fruitvale, and San Lorenzo support? Rebecca Kaplan is a big wildcard here. David Kakishiba could be a dark horse candidate. If you talk to San Leandro politicos, Surlene Grant is, too. If Kaplan defies the odds and wins the race outright, then Oakland needs to start thinking about who will be appointed to her Oakland City Council at-large seat.
ALAMEDA COUNTY SHERIFF: After years of progressives griping about Sheriff Greg Ahern, tonight we’ll get hints for whether there will be a new sheriff in town. Ahern’s re-election bid has appeared sturdy and headed to perhaps a majority of the vote on Primary Day. But a late push by Yesenia Sanchez and a large number of activists and elected officials leading a strong ground game, could change everything. That’s because so many people who haven’t returned their ballots may have been swayed by canvassers supporting Sanchez. JoAnn Walker could be the kingmaker, or, at least, the difference maker between Ahern winning the whole thing or pushing him into what would be a bruising November runoff against Sanchez.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE ROUNDUP
ALAMEDA COUNTY DISTRICT ATTORNEY
—WHO’S GOING DRIVE YOU HOME—The Drive Committee, a political action committee supported by the Teamsters, contributed $5,000 to Alameda County District Attorney candidate Terry Wiley’s campaign on Monday, a day before Election Day. Wiley also received $6,501 from two individual donors on Sunday.
—SOMETHING FOR LATER—Pamela Price’s campaign for Alameda County District Attorney contributed $2,000 on Monday to the Wellstone Democratic Renewal Club PAC 2022, the Democratic club located in Oakland.
20TH/24TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICTS
—DEVELOPING STORIES—Real estate interests continue to back Shawn Kumagai’s campaign for the 20th Assembly District. Richard Robbins, president of the San Rafael-based Wareham Development Corp. contributed $2,000 to Kumagai’s campaign on Monday.
—Same for Teresa Keng in the 24th Assembly District. Keng’s campaign received $1,000 on Monday from Todd Berryhill of Scannell Properties. Both Keng and Kumagai’s primary campaigns have been significantly boosted with money spent by real estate-backed IEs over the past few months.
18TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—FEELING LUCKY?—As the dust settles on primary election contributors and spending, its becoming more noticeably that some sitting legislators like 18th District Assemblymember Mia Bonta are benefiting from gambling special interests. Bonta’s campaign received three $4,900 contributions from such interests, including Elevation Entertainment Group, Knighted Ventures, LLC, and Park West Casinos, Inc., all based in Southern California.
—MONEYBALL—Jennifer Esteen (20th Assembly District), Jane Fonda Climate PAC $4,900… Alameda Forward - Yes on B 2022 (Alameda USD bond measure), Alameda Labor Council AFL-CIO Solidarity PAC $2,500.
ONE LAST THING
With Election Day upon us, I want to thank all of you for supporting the East Bay Insiders Newsletter and Podcast over the first six months of its existence. It’s been an exciting primary election season and my pleasure to bring all the action to your inbox every weekday. Thank you, Steve.
P.S. Don’t forget to listen to tonight East Bay Insiders Live on Twitter Spaces tonight for a break down of all the results starting after the first returns are released after 8 p.m.
Tentatively scheduled guests include former Alameda Coucilmember Jim Oddie, former Fremont Mayor Bill Harrison, former Hayward Councilmember Kevin Dowling, and Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez.
Log-on to Twitter.com/eastbaycitizen after 8 p.m. and click on the prompt to join the East Bay Insiders Live on Twitter Spaces.
