Ranked choice voting will make for some intriguing couplings in Oakland, San Leandro mayoral races
Campaign finance data: Sheet Metal Workers are throwing money around all over the East Bay ballot
ELECTION 2022
Days until Election Day: 84
OAKLAND MAYOR
—POLITICAL THEATRICS—Oakland mayoral candidate Sheng Thao plopped next me inside a cavernous, still mostly empty, movie theater in Jack London Square on Monday night. “I’m so tired,” Thao said roughly 30 minutes before she would debate fellow aspiring mayors and councilmates Treva Reid and Loren Taylor.
—”You should get coffee,” I told Thao. But she was clearly more interested in taking a brief respite on the theater’s plush seats. A few minutes later, Loren Taylor arrived to the conversation in a crisp blue suit with a light blue tie. The color combo is no coincidence. It’s Taylor’s campaign colors.
—”Sheng says she’s tired,” I said to Taylor. “I think she’s trying to throw you off balance. She probably downed a four-pack of Red Bull outside.” Taylor laughed and later proceeded to throw a bit of jokey gamesmanship back at Thao. Taylor said he was always the last person chosen for neighborhood pick-up basketball games. “And then I would drop a triple-double on them,” he guffawed.
—There’s a noticeable ease between Thao and Taylor that suggests on the surface, at least, they could be potential partners in Oakland’s ranked choice voting race. But when the lights came on for Monday’s evening’s forum, the script was flipped.
—Taylor and Reid appear content with staying out of each others way in these forum. Their platforms for alleviating crime and homelessness are similar and they noticeably avoid any confrontations with each other.
—Whenever Thao speaks of her record, especially on public safety, Taylor and Reid look as if they want to blurt out, “objection!” like every hackneyed courtroom drama in movie history. Over the course of Monday night’s forum it became more likely that Taylor and Reid will instead be the duo that attempts to use ranked choice voting to their advantage over the next two months.
—The chips falling into place more than suggest the Oakland mayoral field views Thao, with her major labor support, as the early frontrunner. Upstart mayoral candidate Seneca Scott with his barbed diatribes on social media is also a problem for the Big 3 candidates, and he tends to focus solely on Thao.
—In ranked-choice voting races, being the target of a large field, especially one without a dominant candidate like Oakland’s mayoral race, can be treacherous ground.
—Just ask Don Perata and Tony Santos in San Leandro. Both were frontrunners in 2010 mayoral elections. Both won the most first-place votes, but lost the election due to ranked choice voting. Their downfall? Perata and Santos never cultivated a partner in the field who would have delivered crucial second-place votes to their column. Who will be Thao’s running mate?
(In Wednesday’s newsletter, I’ll break down the Oakland mayoral candidate’s ideas for lowering crime and alleviating homelessness, plus the Big Three’s acceptance that Oakland is in shambles.
I’ll also kick off the East Bay Insiders Candidate Spotlight, a new feature for this election season. I’ll begin with a chat with progressive Hayward City Council candidate George Syrop.)
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