Ranking the potential candidates for Barbara Lee's congressional seat
Alameda opens waterfront Immigrant Park on Saturday, OPD troubles could hamper Howard Terminal
ELECTION 2024
—Two weeks ago, Rep. Barbara Lee spilled the beans about her interest in running for the U.S. Senate in 2024. Now we're all just waiting for the formal announcement. Even though the primary is two years away, time is of the essence.
—Southern California Rep. Katie Porter is already in the race and made her inaugural campaign stop in Lee's backyard, an enclave of wealthy seniors in Rossmoor.
—In addition, SoCal Rep. Adam Schiff, another potential candidate, has noticeably ratcheted up his voter outreach and social media. If Lee waits too long, she may find herself in an early hole.
—When it comes to East Bay politics, who may run to replace Lee in the Greater East Bay's 12th Congressional District is the talk of the town. Some are putting out whispers, some are uniquely situated for the jump, along with the usual suspects.
—Here's a ranking of potential candidates.
Buffy Wicks, 14th District assemblymember
—When Wicks entered the local political scene, her connection to Hillary Clinton and D.C. Democrats made her a formidable, ultimately successful candidate in the 2018 15th Assembly District race. Her resume also made people thinkWicks would be a possible replacement one day to take over for Lee. Wicks has access to party leaders, big-money donors, and a sterling record in the assembly. More than any local politicians that I’ve covered over the past 13 years, Wicks will do positively anything to win a race. It’s an intangible that has highlighted every hard-fought congressional race in this area, and beyond.
Lateefah Simon, BART board director
—Simon would most likely be the most progressive candidate in this field, and possibly the only African American. These are two very important attributes because they mimic the two most important facts about Lee, easily the most popular politician in the East Bay. Simon is an amazing public speaker. No microphone is needed. She’s been building quite a regional following since joining the BART Board in 2016. However, a Simon-Wicks matchup might favor Wicks, who won her initial assembly race against Jovanka Beckles, a very similar candidate to Simon.
Nancy Skinner, 9th District state senator
—Hands down, Skinner would be the most experienced candidate in the field. But most believe she is looking at the Alameda County Board of Supervisors once she is termed out of the state senate in 2024. The trajectory from the city level to state Legislature, and back to the county level would follow Wilma Chan’s path. The thinking is why would Skinner go from a place where legislators can actually get something done to Congress, where it’s about constant headbutting with Republicans? Skinner almost always stays above fray.
Mia Bonta, 18th District assemblymember
—If political power is a perquisite for winning a congressional race. Mia Bonta, the spouse of Attorney General Rob Bonta, has it in droves. She made the huge jump from Alameda school board to the assembly without a hitch, so making a bigger jump to Congress is doable. They don’t call her the “Better Bonta,” for nothing. One issue for Bonta is she will need to boost her legislative accomplishments in the next year in order to have something to run on.
Libby Schaaf, former Oakland mayor
—The word on Schaaf is she is most interested in serving in an “executive position.” That would not be Congress or the state Legislature, where you’re a cog in a much bigger machine. Most interpret “executive” to mean some type of statewide office some day in the future. But Schaaf has the acumen for D.C. She may also benefit from Oakland and East Bay voters having a little more time to assess her eight years as mayor. Right now, the prevailing wisdom is not great, but future events may cause voters to reevaluate her tenure in a positive light.
Jesse Arreguin, Berkeley mayor
The mayor of traditionally the most progressive city in the East Bay would be good fit. House Republicans would surely relish serving with the man who took away their gas stoves. Recall, Berkeley was the leader in mandating new housing units be built with electric stoves.
Keith Carson, Alameda County supervisor
One the defects with Barbara Lee’s tenure is that she never groomed a successor. Keith Carson might have been the closest. Carson even speaks like Lee. Here’s the problem: if this was anytime before 2018, Carson would be way higher on this list. Retirement is more likely.
Malia Vella, Alameda councilmember
Even after an unsuccessful run for the assembly, Vella remains a top prospect in East Bay politics. A run for Congress would have to be based on the absence of a strong labor candidate. Labor is Vella’s bread and butter. But she has two young children and mayor of Alameda may be in her future in 2026.
Loren Taylor, former Oakland councilmember
Everybody is wondering what Taylor’s next move will be. Potential candidates in his neck of the woods have several very good landing spot available in 2024. There’s Congress, an open state senate seat, and maybe the Alameda County Board of Supervisors. While unsuccessful in running for Oakland mayor, the campaign might make him a stronger candidate in the future.
Dan Kalb, Oakland councilmember
—He’s a bit of darkhorse here, but if you were to pick the best congressional prospect on the Oakland City Council, it would be Kalb. He’s easily the most wonky legislative mad scientist on this list. The cynic, however, will say, why would a wonky legislator want to be in Congress? They don’t do anything! You would be right. Kalb is also on the short-list of candidates for Nancy Skinner’s termed out seat in 2024.
CITY NEWS
ALAMEDA
—IMMIGRANT PARK OPENS—Alameda will celebrate the grand opening of Bohol Circle Immigrant Park on Saturday with a who's who of local officials, including Rep. Barbara Lee, state Attorney General Rob Bonta, state Sen. Nancy Skinner, and Assemblymember Mia Bonta, among others.
—Back in 2018, I did a feature story for Alameda Magazine about Bohol Circle, a Filipino American social group that was formed by immigrant who settled in Alameda during the Great Depression.
—The article is one of my proudest pieces. It's a universal American immigrant story.
—A group of Filipinos immigrate to America. They seek out other Filipinos and form a social network, like Bohol Circle. Soon they assimilate, get married, have kids, and those kids begin melding what it is to be Filipino and American. And before you know it, white people are buying $15 lumpia from a food truck. You made it!
—The lament, however, is many of these immigrant social groups are beginning to die out. Bohol Circle is facing this problem. Many Italian American groups are also struggling.
—The Portuguese group that I grew up with, the Bom Jesus Milagroso Hall in Hayward, celebrated its 100-year anniversary last summer. Keeping the doors open and filled with volunteers is a perpetual problem.
—So when your Italian, Irish, Filipino, or Portuguese friend asks you want to attend an event at one of these halls, you should go. Depending on your background, it’s places like these where your ancestors figured out how they would get their slice of the American Dream.
OAKLAND
—POLICE CHIEF ON LEAVE—Being the mayor of Oakland is undoubtedly the hardest job in all of Alameda County. The first three weeks of the Mayor Sheng Thao's administration has been notably quiet. There's has been no public display of exactly what she plans to do as mayor. Now the narrative has shifted, as narratives often do, without warning, and often in adverse ways.
—With news that Oakland Police Chief LeRonne Armstrong was placed on paid administrative leave on Thursday following worrisome findings by an independent investigator, Thao has to deal with yet another instance of upheaval at OPD. Oakland may be in the market for a new police chief, in addition, to finding a new city administrator. Homicides during the first three weeks of 2023 are again high.
—Armstrong's short tenure at the helm at OPD was generally praised. Under his leadership, the possibility of OPD being released from two decades of federal oversight appeared near. But it seems OPD's problem persists.
—Curiously, former Mayor Libby Schaaf faced similar circumstances early in her tenure. In a matter of days, Oakland embarrassingly went through three different police chief following the resignation of Sean Whent.
—OPD NEWS IS BAD FOR HT—Just a month ago, it looked like the biggest items on Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao's early to-do list was to find a new city administrator and begin work on finalizing a proposal to the A's for the Howard Terminal Ballpark Project. Public safety is the paramount issue for Oakland voters. With Armstrong on paid administrative leave, sorting out the mess at OPD is bound to take much of Thao's time. Where does that leave Howard Terminal?
—It's a potentially serious development for the ballpark plan. Until we see otherwise, Thao is an untested leader. This may also be irrelevant. Could anybody possibly juggle fixing OPD—one of the most vexing problems in the region for the last 20 years—while being asked to finalize a $12 billion major infrastructure project? Is it too much to ask a freshman mayor? Because during eight years in office, Schaaf, someone with more experience when she became mayor, wasn't able to do either.
