Reading the candidates for clues

A candidate's body language and facial expressions often reveal whether they believe they're losing. All Apologies: EBMUD director apologizes, but lashes out at board; 'Dro CM apologizes to colleague

Oakland special mayoral election candidates Loren Taylor and Barbara Lee met at a forum in East Oakland on Tuesday night.

☕️MORNING BUZZ

—Back in 2012, I stumbled upon a trick for predicting evenly-contested races. Attend one of the final candidate forums before Election Day and watch how the candidates move.

Watch how they react when their opponent is speaking. You might not be able to discern who thinks they’re going to win, but you can often sense who thinks they’re going to lose.

At the end of the 2012 race for the 18th Assembly District between Rob Bonta and Abel Guillen, I saw a confident Bonta, whereas Guillen sounded exasperated and angry. Bonta won by 3,000 votes on Election Day.

That’s why I attended last night’s Oakland special mayoral candidate forum at Sweet Fingers Restaurant in East Oakland. By the way, the spread of Jamaican food was next level.

So what did I see?

Loren Taylor once again appeared energetic and confident, laying down his points in a methodical manner. His stump speech is noticeably more smooth than just a month ago when he faced Barbara Lee at a televised debate.

This often happens. Candidates in big races get in a groove by the end of a campaign. It’s part practice, part workshopping the talking points that resonate with audiences.

Lee looked a bit tired, but not in any way due to her age. It’s been an action-packed three months of campaigning.

Lee’s stump speech still hasn’t gelled. She continues to fall into moments when the words simply fail to roll off her tongue, which gives the impression she’s unprepared.

Like other appearances, Lee can get on an inspired roll, which whips up energy from the audience. She had a few moments like that last night.

Reading Taylor and Lee was difficult because they never engaged each other during the forum. There was no room for the exasperation Guillen revealed back in 2012.

Although, on several occasions, Lee blankly scanned the audience while Taylor spoke. It conveyed disinterest. It looked like resignation. I think Barbara Lee thinks she might lose this election.

—More inside:

• Special election campaign notes: Another Barbara Lee flub. She praised Loren Taylor for being able to “fix things.”

• San Leandro councilmember apologizes for appearing to act dismissively after colleague revealed she had allegedly been assaulted.

• EBMUD board director apologizes to artist for parking space spat, but later asserted that her colleagues were suggesting she is racist

• Campaign finance data for Tuesday shows IEs are still churning out mailers as the last weekend before Election Day approaches.

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