Recount Doomsday Scenarios
Berkeley councilmember calls for an audit of the Alameda County ROV; Haubert wants to restart county eviction moratorium discussion
COUNTY NEWS
RANKED CHOICE VOTING
—DOOMSDAY SCENARIOS—There were two public comments made yesterday at the Alameda County Board of Supervisors discussion of last November’s election that highlight the unprecedented and extremely dangerous mess this county and its residents could be on the verge of facing over the next weeks and months.
—The disclosure that following a screw-up by the Alameda County Registrar of Voters that resulted in Oakland school boardmember Mike Hutchinson actually winning a race in which he was previously certified to have lost, doesn’t mean that Hutchinson can legally take the seat. Now his lawyers are involved, we learned on Thursday.
—But Nick Resnick, the Oakland school board candidate who thought he had won the District 4 race, has a good case for holding on to the seat. Resnick’s attorney raised several questions about the legality of Alameda County Registrar of Voters Tim Dupuis’ act of retabulating the ranked choice votes without first notifying the candidates or allowing them to observe the process. Resnick’s attorney on Thursday said requests for information involving the retabulations have yielded no response from Dupuis.
—There’s much we do not know about Dupuis’ running of this year’s election, and more worrisome, whether the mistakes we already know about are localized to the 2022 election or have infected previous election cycles. The question of whether the settings of the ranked choice voting algorithm were incorrect in previous elections was never answered on Thursday. Here’s the ranked choice races from 2020 and 2018 that could adversely affected:
—In 2020, Berkeley’s District 2 contest was a tight three-candidate affair between Terry Taplin, Cheryl Davila, and Alex Sharenko. Each candidate exceeded one-fifth of the first-place vote. Taplin won the ranked choice voting. The Oakland City Council District 7 race won by Treva Reid, who garnered 35 percent of first-place votes, could have also been susceptible to a results change.
—In addition, three Oakland school board races in 2020, including one featuring Hutchinson, were close and potentially problematic if the algorithm error or any other type of mistake was made by the registrar two years ago.
—Recall that in the 2020 elections there were questions raised about the registrar’s transparency when it came to providing ranked choice results. Each race in 2020 include this phrase on the county’s results page, “please contact Registrar of Voters Office for complete RCV results.” No link. You had to call the registrar for the results.
—In 2018, Sheng Thao’s Oakland City Council race in District 4 was similarly a close contest among three strong candidates.
—If the expected recount of ranked choice voting elections in Albany, Berkeley, Oakland, and San Leandro produces another change in the winner—either due to ranked choice voting or from the simple act of recounting votes, here’s the doomsday scenario that could play out.
Dupuis resigns or is dismissed by the Alameda County Board of Supervisors. This is a likelihood that appears to be gaining momentum in recent days.
The burgeoning story of incompetence and illegitimacy of elections in the liberal San Francisco Bay Area will be featured in the national media, let alone gleefully highlighted by the talking heads at Fox News.
Some type of state receivership or oversight of Alameda County elections would follow in 2024 and probably beyond, an extremely embarrassing prospect for a county that attempts to pride itself for being the vanguard of California counties.
Paramount to all of this is the major hit to the integrity of our local elections. Oaklanders don’t need much to unleash their fury on their elected officials, but San Leandro voters will also be up in arms.
Needless to say, there would be a firestorm in Oakland and persistent questions about the legitimacy of Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao, who was promptly sworn-in at 11 a.m. last Monday. If, say, Loren Taylor picks up enough votes to overturn last November’s ranked choice tally, how exactly do they unwind Thao being the mayor for the last week or however long the aftermath of a recount lasts?
In San Leandro, Mayor Juan Gonzalez was sworn-in last month and has already presided over his first council meeting. He’s already scheduled to attend the U.S. Mayors’ Conference later this month. How does San Leandro reset its council roster. Such a doomsday scenario would elevate Councilmember Bryan Azevedo to mayor a create a two-year appointment process.
It could be worse in San Leandro if an expected recount flips the first-place result in the extremely close District 5 council race. Xoahua Bowen also took the oath of office last month, but it’s conceivable the 32-vote difference between her and Monique Tate could be erased after a manual recount. What if there’s a tie?! There were two ties in Bay Area races this November. This added mess of a wrinkle would extend the mess in Alameda County because another recount of this race would probably follow.
If more races from November are flipped following a recount, the legal wrangling we’re beginning to see in the disputed Oakland school board race with Hutchinson and Resnick expands and fuels further chaos.
Furthermore, almost all of the candidates potentially involved in this mess are not wealthy. As we see with Hutchinson, winning back your seat involves legal costs. There’s a terrible scenario out there in which a candidate who finds out they actually won the seat can’t afford to legally take it back.
At the county-level, it’s not hard to see a massive reorganization of the Board of Supervisors coming. As I noted here last week, three of the five members are likely nearing their expiration date. This burgeoning disaster would hasten their exits. The record is chock full comments by Supervisors Nate Miley, Keith Carson, Richard Valle, and David Haubert offering effusive praise for Dupuis’ efforts not only in prior years, but very recently.
Even though Carson proposed an independent manual recount of the vote yesterday—an idea that strongly suggests that he does not trust Dupuis—he nonetheless thanked the embattled registrar for his efforts in the previous election.
Finally, because of the secrecy the registrar’s office has long exhibited for many years, there’s the remote possibility that this story has additional contours that none of us ever saw coming
—CALL FOR INDY AUDIT OF ROV—Berkeley Councilmember Rashi Kesarwani, who won re-election last November in the city’s ranked choice voting election, believes the state Secretary of State should conduct an independent audit of the Alameda County Registrar of Voters.
—Kesarwani’s District 1 council race was not affected by the tabulation error reported last month following the certification of the vote, according to the Alameda County Registrar of Voters office. Kesarwani’s race was somewhat tight, but the 32 suspended ballots identified did not the change the result, the registrar’s office said.
“Still, I’m aghast that this error was discovered after the certification of the election and has led to the outcome of an Oakland School Director race being altered—a serious breach of the public’s trust in the Registrar of Voters,” Kesarwani said.
—LONG DAY AHEAD—We’re likely to see an Oakland City Council-style eight hour or longer Alameda County Board of Supervisors meeting next Tuesday. The board’s first regular meeting of the year could be one of its most consequential in years.
—Not only is the tenuous fate of long-fought tenant rights for unincorporated Alameda County on the line on Jan. 10, but we now know a recount of the November elections in four ranked choice voting cities is likely to be approved at the same hearing.
—A second reading of three tenant protection ordinances approved by the board on Dec. 20 may see a different result on Tuesday due to the new composition of the board. The addition of Supervisor Lena Tam is expected to flip the majority of the board to a more pro-landlord tilt.
—For those interest in attended Tuesday’s meeting, the recount discussion is expected to start around 1 p.m. The tenant protections ordinance follows at around 3 p.m. However, knowing the pace of Alameda County board meetings, expect each start time to be much later than advertised.
—In addition, Supervisor David Haubert wants to schedule a future board discussion on the future of Alameda County’s nearly three-year-old eviction moratorium, according to Tuesday’s agenda. Haubert has made this move before, but notably, with a different set of supervisors.
—APPOINTMENTS—A new president of the Board of Supervisors will be selected on Tuesday to take over for Supervisor Keith Carson. The pick will either be Supervisor Nate Miley or David Haubert.
—Sandra Rivera becomes the permanent director of the Alameda County Community Development Agency for a five-year term. Rivera has served as interim director since last March.
—Carson is appointing San Leandro Councilmember Pete Ballew to the Housing Authority of the County of Alameda Housing Commission, along with former Albany Councilmember Peggy McQuaid.
—FLOOD DAMAGE—A flood control wall near Manor Boulevard in San Leandro that is maintained by Alameda County was compromised on Thursday. In a statement on Friday, San Leandro Mayor Juan Gonzalez urged residents affected by the flooding to file a claim with the county.
—UP NEXT—City government action returns in full starting next week in Oakland, and Berkeley, among other Alameda County cities, in addition, to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors.
