Redistricting commission may scuttle Quirk's plans for re-election
New assembly map evokes landscape that led to Pete Stark's demise a decade ago
The current redrawing of California state legislative lines has many incumbents worried about their immediate political future. Several have bailed on re-election efforts after seeing the proverbial writing on the wall when it comes to potentially problematic redistricting models over the past few weeks.
While the exodus of legislators has primarily focused on Southern California, one East Bay assemblymember is looking at his prospective 2022 district and seriously contemplating a similar exit from public life.
Hayward and Fremont Assemblymember Bill Quirk is rumored to be near making an announcement that he will not run next year for re-election in the 20th Assembly District.
Quirk has served the “Heart of the Bay” since 2012. He was part of the first wave of legislators allotted a total of 12 years in office, instead of eight. But after Quirk moved from Hayward to a retirement community in Union City a few years ago, rumors about his impending exit from the seat have raged over the past two election cycles.
The California Redistricting Commission is scheduled to finalize congressional and state legislative boundaries on Friday. The timing would fit with Quirk’s rumored announcement.
Assembly lines released on Wednesday will reshape Quirk’s current district, essentially shifting its borders north and eastward and away from Fremont. San Leandro and parts of the Tri-Valley would become part of the new 20th Assembly District under the proposed map.
While the San Leandro portion of the new district is similar to the constituency in Hayward, the Dublin and Pleasanton portions in the Tri-Valley are highly problematic for Quirk’s re-election in 2022.
Following the 2010 redistricting, an eerily similar redrawing of the same area’s congressional lines set the stage for Eric Swalwell’s stunning upset of Pete Stark. While Stark was well-known in the Hayward portion of the new 15th Congressional District, he was generally an unknown commodity to moderate Tri-Valley voters. Stark’s advanced age also hindered his ability to campaign in the new parts of the district.
History tells us now that Stark’s campaign immediately identified the grave threat the redistricting maps posed to his re-election, yet pushed on. The losing result sullied one of the greatest politicians in East Bay history. Quirk is well aware of Stark’s electoral missteps at the end of his career. He’s referenced them to me on several occasions over the years that Stark should have retired in 2010 rather than seek re-election in a vastly reconfigured district.
Will Quirk heed history’s advice?
—WHO REPLACES QUIRK?— The Hayward area has long suffered from an inadequate bench of future elected leaders. The city has produced state senate candidate Aisha Wahab, but the drop-off from there is considerable. Two candidates have already filed to run in the June 2022 primary—Registered Nurse Jennifer Esteen and Fremont Councilmember Teresa Keng. But Keng is now destined for what will be named the 24th Assembly District, according to the latest redistricting map. That leaves Esteen, a candidate who is currently seeking progressive endorsements, and an unspectacular list of potential candidates. Start with those who have previously run for the state legislature. They include San Leandro Councilmember Victor Aguilar, Jr. (2021 AD18 special election) and Union City Councilmember Jaime Patino (AD20 Republican in 2014). However, both are up for re-election to their council seats in November 2022. Hayward Councilmembers Sara Lamnin (a favorite of Quirk’s) and Elisa Marquez are possibilities, as is Dublin Councilmember Shawn Kumagai. Alexis Villalobos, the progressive who gave Quirk a surprising run for his money in the 2020 General Election, could also attempt to build on his insurgent run from Quirk’s left. Shay Franco-Clausen, a former aide to South Bay Assemblymember Ash Kalra and previous San Jose City Council candidate, is now an Alameda County resident and is believed to be eyeing the 20th District seat.
**See declared and rumored candidates in other East Bay June and November 2022 races here.
—RICHMOND CHIEF GOES TO WASHINGTON— Before Chris Magnus was President Biden’s nominee to the lead the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency, he was the East Bay progressive’s favorite police chief. On Wednesday, the U.S. Senate approved Magnus’s nomination along near party lines. Magnus will be the first openly gay leader of what is the nation’s largest law enforcement agency and tasked with reforming an agency that was used as a lightning rod by former President Trump.
Magnus left the Richmond Police Department in 2015 for Tucson, Ariz. The East Bay Express detailed Magnus’ successful tenure here.
In many ways, Magnus was the police chief that Oakland progressives clamored for, but never received. Magnus transformed the Richmond Police Department from an outfit known for its mistreatment of minorities into one that revolutionized community-policing and somewhat healed the historical racism that went back to the city’s breakneck expansion during World War II. Magnus is heading to bigger places; Oakland remains in many ways directionless amid vast social change and current rises in crime.
—ELECTION 2022 UPDATE— Janani Ramachandran, the first-time candidate who surprisingly advanced to the 2021 18th Assembly District Special Election is making another attempt at public office, sooner than believed. Ramachandran will not seek a rematch with Assemblymember Mia Bonta next June. Instead, she will focus on replacing Oakland Councilmember Sheng Thao in District 4. Thao is running for mayor next fall and is backed by the Bontas. The field in the Oakland Hills district has yet to coalesce, but it remains to be seen whether Ramachandran’s consistent attacks on Mia Bonta during the special election will come back to haunt her in this campaign. Perhaps a reprisal in the form of recruitment and endorsement of a rival candidate? Keep an eye out for it.
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