Rob Bonta's big bets: From the Oakland mayor's race to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors
Realtors contribute a total of $30,000 in support of nine mayor, council candidates in Hayward, San Leandro, Livermore, and Pleasanton
ELECTION 2022
Days until Election Day: 43. Days until ballots are sent: 14.
—BONTA DYNASTY—Democratic California Attorney General Rob Bonta is certain to win a full term in office this November against Republican Nathan Hochman. Instead, Bonta should be worrying about two local races that have his fingerprints all over them. Starting last year, Bonta made two major bets. One on the next mayor of Oakland, the other in hopes the person who succeeds the late Alameda County Supervisor Wilma Chan is an Asian American woman.
—First some backstory: When Bonta was appointed attorney general last year, the strong push to elect his wife, Mia Bonta, to replace him in the 18th Assembly District started with at least two pacts meant to clear the special election field of minority women candidates.
—Oakland Councilmember Sheng Thao and San Leandro Councilmember Corina Lopez were laying the groundwork to run in the April 2021 special election. Ultimately, neither more forward with their plans.
—Later, Thao announced her candidacy for Oakland mayor with the Bontas notably in attendance. Both endorsed Thao’s mayoral run. The same support is expected for Lopez’s candidacy for the East Bay MUD Board of Directors this fall. (Lopez is termed out from the San Leandro City Council this year.)
—At the behest of the Bontas, Thao is now the beneficiary of a labor union push to get her elected mayor that could break records in Oakland for Independent Expenditure Committee spending. As you’ll read below, “Working Families for a Better Oakland, Supporting Sheng Thao for Oakland Mayor” received another $105,000 in contributions from labor unions over the weekend.
—Despite the large amount of spending by the pro-Thao IE, the odds of her winning Oakland mayoral race is very much up in the air. Her performance at the East Bay Times endorsement interview was a gigantic red flag and underscored chatter in Oakland politics about Thao’s potential for making some type of debilitating gaffe during the campaign.
—Bonta is the architect of Thao’s mayoral run. If she loses in November, the loss will be a big hit to Bonta and labor unions. But the scenario in the Alameda County Board of Supervisors race is perhaps already heading toward defeat for Bonta.
—In the aftermath of Chan’s tragic death in November 2021, there was a push by many in the Asian American community to have the appointee to the District 3 seat be an Asian American woman.
—Among those showing interest was Alameda Councilmember Malia Vella, who many viewed as a strong candidate to move forward Chan’s legacy and her policies. But Vella had angered by Bontas by choosing to run in the 18th Assembly District special election. Vella later decided against seeking the appointment.
—Bonta, instead, intervened in the appointment process by gathering large amount of support in the Asian American community for a strategy destined become a gigantic example of political hubris. Bonta led the push to get Dave Brown, Chan’s longtime chief of staff, appointed to the Board of Supervisors as caretaker for the seat until this fall’s election.
—There was some bad optics involved in the appointment. For one, Brown’s residency in Alameda County has never fully been proven. Text messages later showed Brown was seriously scheming for the appointment, and his addition made it an all-male Board of Supervisors.
—Fast forward to the 2022 election cycle and the hope to replace Chan with an Asian American woman now rests on the shoulders of Lena Tam, a former Alameda councilmember who was out of politics for eight years and lost the June primary by 10 points. Tam has also morphed into the candidate of real estate interests and landlords, groups that most progressives would not equate with the Bontas.
—Bonta’s bet on appointing Brown to the Board of Supervisors is likely, based on current projections, not to produce an Asian American representative in District 3 as originally advertised, but hand the seat to Oakland Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan in November.
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