Sheng Thao and Oakland's poll numbers are underwater

Poll: Thao's favorability is -52%, two-thirds give her job performance a thumbs down, 65% disapprove of the Oakland City Council, most want more cops; Audit: County can do better for struggling youths

The poll strongly suggests there is no path for Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao to avoid a recall from office in November.

CITY NEWS

OAKLAND

—BAD NEWS ALL AROUND—Every level of Oakland city government is deeply unpopular, according to a new poll. Crime and decreasing quality of life is also paramount in the minds of Oaklanders.

—The poll of 400 likely November voters was conducted by David Binder Research from July 9 through July 11. The margin of error for the poll is +/-4.9 percent.

—The poll was commissioned by SOS Oakland, a political action committee created by Greg McConnell, the former CEO of the Jobs and Housing Coalition.

Among the highlights/lowlights:

• 73% of Oaklanders believe the city is on the wrong track, according to the poll, as opposed to 15 percent who said it’s heading in the right direction. The numbers mirror polling done by the same firm last year.

• 62% of Oakland residents said their overall quality of life is worse. In addition, 22 percent said it remains the same, while nine percent said it is better. Notably, 74 percent of Black residents surveyed said their quality of life has decreased, by far, the highest among all demographics.

• 58% of respondents told the pollster that crime and public safety is the major issue facing Oakland. Homelessness and poverty was second at 28 percent. Notably, 15 percent said government and poor leadership is a problem.

—The poll is all things bad for Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and strongly suggests there is no path to avoiding a recall from office in the fall.

• 69% described Thao as unfavorable, as opposed to 17 percent who find her favorable for a shocking difference of 52 percentage points, by far, the largest spread in the poll.

• 66% disapprove of Thao’s job performance, while 20 percent approve. Among those who disapprove, 46 percent were strongly opposed to the mayor’s job performance.

• 56% would vote to recall Thao, with 41 percent definitely in favor. Twenty-five percent would keep Thao as mayor, but just 12 percent are a definite, and 19 percent don’t know.

• In every poll question involving Thao, the Asian American demographic was more likely than other ethnicities to disapprove of the mayor.

—Other areas of Oakland government are also unpopular.

• 65% disapprove of the Oakland City Council’s job performance.

• 39% disapprove of the Oakland City Attorney’s job performance, while 19 percent approve.

—The reason for the consistently disapproving poll numbers is obviously related to public safety.

• 90% said they are concerned about crime in Oakland

• 62% said Oakland should hire more police officers, while 14% said the amount should stay the same.

• 60% believe crime is getting worse. That’s a drop of 20 points from last year, but the number is blunted by a 10-point increase in those who believe crime is “staying the same.” Thirteen percent said crime is getting better.

• 56% believe crime is leading to restaurants, stores, and hotels to close in Oakland.

• 57% said they or a member of their family have been a victim of crime in the “last few years,” including 69 percent of Black residents polled.

• 51% shop less in Oakland due to crime, and 44 percent are less likely to dine in the city.

—Oakland public officials and candidates are virtually unknown to the electorate, according to the poll, including District 3 Councilmember Carroll Fife and other members of the city council.

—LeRonne Armstrong, the former Oakland police chief now running for the city council’s at-large seat, has the highest favorability numbers in the city with 35 percent support. He’s viewed as unfavorable by 22 percent of those polled for a survey-high +13 favorable number.

—Former Oakland mayoral candidate Loren Taylor and Zac Unger, a candidate for the Oakland City Council in District 1, also registered a +13 favorable number.

—Among four at-large candidates included in the poll, Armstrong leads with 28 percent support, followed by Fife’s chief of staff Tonya Love, and Assemblymember Mia Bonta’s district director Rowena Brown at 11 percent. Small business owner Kanitha Matoury followed at 8 percent.

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