ELECTION 2024
THAO RECALL
—LET’S PLAY TWO—Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao will be facing a recall, likely this November.
—The Alameda County Registrar of Voters certified the group seeking Thao’s ouster exceeded the roughly 25,000 valid signatures required for placing the recall question on a future ballot.
—Thao becomes the fourth elected official in Alameda County to face a recall.
—She joins Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price, whose recall election is set for Nov. 5. Sunol school boardmembers Ryan Jergensen and Linda Hurley are facing a recall election on July 2.
—Oakland United to Recall Sheng Thao, known as OUST, turned in more than 40,000 signatures seven weeks before the July deadline.
—The quick turnaround raised eyebrows with some questioning the wisdom ending the signature-gathering effort so early.
—But the strategy now looks like a bold and confident power move on the recall effort’s part.
—The Oakland City Council will determine the recall’s next steps on July 2. Absent some type of litigation styling the recall election, it’s likely to appear on the consolidated November ballot.
—A special recall election is very unlikely. Cost is a major factor. Based on the Registrar of Voters’ recent estimates, a stand-alone special recall election in Oakland would cost between $4.7 million and $5.2 million.
—Calling for an expensive special recall election in Oakland would also strike many as hypocritical. Price’s campaign argued against the same special recall election because it could cost up to $20 million to administer.
—COMPARE & CONTRAST—There’s quite a few similarities for how the recall campaigns of Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and Alameda County DA Pamela Price got to this point.
Both are responses to a rise in crime in Oakland and Alameda County.
Early efforts by the recall campaigns were dismissed by Thao and Price, then derided as right-wing effort to usurp democracy.
The recall petition drives in both cases busted out of the gate and quickly reported large numbers of signatures. Opponents of the recalls questioned the veracity of their numbers, but later proven wrong.
Both Thao and Price appeared stunned by the growing likelihood that their recalls would qualify for the ballot, and failed momentarily to properly prepare.
—Here’s the differences between the recall:
Price’s obstinance toward properly responding to the recall, namely lining up financial and institutional support, makes fighting off her ouster very difficult this fall.
Thao is more likely to put together a coalition to help fight the recall. SEIU Local 1021 spent heavily to get Thao into the mayor’s office and will protect their investment.
Like with the Price recall, the Alameda County Democratic Central Committee will be in Thao’s corner. Unlike Price, who has burned bridges over the years, Thao is relatively popular among Alameda County elected officials.
—OUTLOOK—Because both recalls are based on public safety, it will be difficult to change the hearts and minds of fearful voters.
—As I argued on the latest episode of the East Bay Insiders Podcast, it’s possible that many Oakland voters either support both recalls over frustration of chronic crime, or oppose them both on principle. Split-tickets will be less common, I believe.
—If the Price recall result mimic the drubbing San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin was given in 2021, there’s a high probability that she takes down Thao with her.
COUNTY NEWS
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
—SUNOL RECALL—Opponents of the Sunol Glen Unified School District recall of school boardmembers Ryan Jergensen and Linda Hurley balked at the high cost of the July 2 special election.
—The Alameda County Registrar of Voters office believes the cost of the stand-alone special recall election will be on the high end of estimated costs, roughly $17,000, he told the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday.
—Recall opponents again urged the county registrar to conduct a manual count of the vote. Alameda County Registrar of Voters Tim Dupuis said a 100 percent manual count was used for a recent, low-turnout Berkeley City Council special election.
—But Dupuis sidestepped any decision on Tuesday about using a manual tally in the Sunol Glen recall.
—Although, Sunol Glen has just 832 registered voters, Dupuis said turnout could be high.
—As of Tuesday, 20 percent of voters have returned their vote-by-mail ballot with two weeks before the July 2 Election Day.
—CASTING DOUBT—Following the Alameda County Election Commission’s recommendation urging the Board of Supervisors to direct Registrar of Voters Tim Dupuis to release cast vote records on Election Night, he appeared resistant to the idea.
—The county registrar’s current policy is to make cast vote records, digital representations of ballots, available upon request, but only after the election has been certified, Dupuis said.
—When asked about releasing cast vote records on Election Night, starting with the November elections, Dupuis said, “That has not been our practice.”
—“We are certainly very cautious and would prefer to stay with the process that we are using,” he added.
—Proponents for releasing the cast vote records early say the potential for the public to crowdsource the search for irregularities in the election could help avoid costly errors later on.
—In addition, Dupuis said pending state senate legislation raises questions about the legality of releasing cast vote records in the future.
—Senate Bill 1328 could be interpreted to make it a felony to possess cast vote records, Dupuis told the Board of Supervisors. However, the intent of the bill is to maintain the preservation of election materials.
—He also believes the California Secretary of State’s office does not support releasing cast vote records, although Dupuis said the office has offered the county no clear direction on the matter.
HEALTH CARE
—HOT & COLD—As reported last week, Alameda Hospital has become a fixer-upper after years of neglect. For example, the facility’s autoclave boiler, which is used to sterilized equipment, has been on the blink for some time.
—Alameda Healthcare District officials said last week that the hospital’s boilers will not be replaced until July 2026, as part of its HVAC Central Utility Plant Infrastructure Project, In addition, the hospital’s chiller will not be replaced until November 2025.
