The do-over election
The pandemic momentarily shifted the East Bay further left. This fall's pair of recalls is the course correction
ELECTION 2024
39 days to Election Day
Recalls are rare. Having two in the same region is unprecedented. How Oakland and Alameda County got to this moment will be debated for some time. The first draft of history explains the concurrent recalls of Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price and Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao as a course correction.
Alameda County is obviously one of the most progressive areas in the country, but when it comes to public safety, historically, its residents crave law and order. It could be argued that the 2022 election was a perfect storm for a genuinely reform-minded district attorney to win in Alameda County.
The pandemic completely upended our lives. It also turned our local politics upside down, and the murder of George Floyd kickstarted a racial equity and anti-police movement that shifted our local politics even further to the left.
Shifts like these can take years, even decades. Policies such as defunding the police, releasing large numbers of prisoners from jail, and even years-long moratoriums on rents, set the stage for the do-ever election coming this fall.
In hindsight, these policies amounted to dramatic changes in our lives without any collective preparation. Alameda County’s politics shifted too far left, and in too short of time to ever have a chance to stick.
Price’s is prone to conspiracies and, perhaps, her opponents were too eager early on to seek her recall from office. But, in hindsight, the recallers were right about Price. She showed herself to be a narcissist, incapable of running an organization as large as the DA’s office, and surrounded herself with like-minded reformers.
Most believe Alameda County voters will recall Price from office in November. If so, the reason for her demise will not be so much about anything the recall campaign did, although, their effort has been impressive in organization and messaging
The reason is imbedded in Price. She won the 2022 election because she never veered from her messaging. If you heard one speech, you heard them all. Voters cue in on repetition and she delivered. She will be recalled from office for the same reason. She never veered from her platform even when a seasoned politician would have made her own course correction.
Rather than recalibrate her message, Price lashed out at her opponents and maintained the righteousness of her cause. Staying the course she pledged to voters is a commendable strategy, but in this case, political suicide.
The pandemic theory, though, mostly explains Price, but not Thao’s current predicament.
At the heart of both recalls is public frustration over violent crime in Oakland and across the county. Would Thao be facing a recall without the momentum of the Price recall driving the fury? Probably not.
Conventional wisdom and polling data suggests Thao will also be recalled in November. Like Price, Thao has proven to be her own worst enemy.
The firing of Oakland Police Chief LeRonne Armstrong came a month after Thao took office. Not only did it alienate African American residents and those who believed Armstrong was doing a good job, but it was the first clue that she was unprepared for the mayor’s office.
The move allowed those angry about Price and her reform policies to place Thao in the same tempestuous box.
Months into Thao’s tenure the A’s announced their departure to somewhere (Las Vegas?). The aftermath revealed that A’s management never took her seriously.
Then her administration botched a significant state grant to combat retail theft at a time when viral videos of brazen shoplifting was a daily occurrence.
Then the raid on her home in June was the final nail. She has never regained her footing.
The zeitgeist that put Thao in office—the progressive movement of the pandemic era—did not hold, and she did little to keep it together. Instead, Thao also shuffled in conspiracies, withdrew from public view for periods of time, but worst of all, never provided Oaklanders a reason for hope.
It’s very likely the hope they crave will be found in this fall’s re-do election. Thao may endure the ignominy of being recalled, while watching her two biggest rivals succeed.
Loren Taylor, the former Oakland councilmember who lost to Thao in 2022 by several hundred votes, is the current favorite to win a special election next year, if Thao is recalled. Many believe Armstrong will win the Oakland City Council’s at-large seat this November.
For Price, it’s unclear who may seek the appointment as DA, if she is recalled. One tantalizing rumor is Price’s rival, former Alameda County DA Nancy O’Malley, as a caretaker candidate to serve through 2026, and allow a field of candidates to run for the final two years of Price’s term.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
—💰MONEYBALL—Form 497 large campaign contributions filed on Sept. 26:
ALAMEDA COUNTY
—Alameda County Democratic Central Committee, California Teachers Association/Association For Better Citizenship, $2,000. TOTAL: $2,000.
CITIES
BERKELEY
—Berkeley Citizens for Safe Streets (Supports Measure FF parcel tax), Operating Engineers Local Union No. 3 Issues Advocacy/Ballot Initiative PAC, $20,000. TOTAL: $20,000.
FREMONT
—Rinu Nair (Fremont USD-Area 4), Mihir Meghani of Fremont, $1,001. TOTAL: $1,001.
—Support Fremont Schools (Supporting Measure M bond measure), Operating Engineers Local Union No. 3 Issues Advocacy/Ballot Initiative PAC, $5,000. TOTAL: $5,000.
LIVERMORE
—Tara Boyce (Livermore Joint USD), Livermore Education Association PAC, $5,161. TOTAL: $5,161.
—Christiaan VandeHeuvel (Livermore Joint USD), Livermore Education Association PAC, $5,161. TOTAL: $5,161.
NEWARK
—Terrence Grindall (Newark City Council), Terrence Grindall of Newark, $2,000. TOTAL: $2,000.
OAKLAND
—Rachel Latta (Oakland USD-District 1), Oakland Education Association PAC, $1,200. TOTAL: $1,200.
—VanCedric Williams (Oakland USD-District 3), Oakland Education Association PAC, $1,200. TOTAL: $1,200.
—Sasha Ritzie-Hernández (Oakland-District 5), Oakland Education Association PAC, $1,200. TOTAL: $1,200.
PLEASANTON
—Jack Balch (Pleasanton Mayor), Gretchen Zaballos-Scherer of Pleasanton, $1,000. TOTAL: $1,000.
—Vivek Mohan (Pleasanton City Council-District 4), Vivek Mohan of Pleasanton, $11,000; Sanjiv Garg of Pleasanton, $1,500; Alok Bhalla of Pleasanton, $1,000. TOTAL: $14,500.
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE SENATE
—Jesse Arreguin (7th Senate District), 2129 Dwight Way LLC, $2,750; 3030 Telegraph LLC, $2,750; Morris Wright of Berkeley, $1,000; Bettina Duval of Santa Monica, Calif., $1,000; California Beer & Beverage Distributors Community Affairs Fund, $1,000. TOTAL: $7,500.
—Tim Grayson (9th Senate District), United Services Automobile Assoc. and Affiliated Entities, $3,500'; Peace Officers Research Association of California PAC, $2,400; JPMorgan Chase & Co. PAC, $2,000; California Beer & Beverage Distributors Community Affairs Fund, $1,000. TOTAL: $8,900.
STATE ASSEMBLY
—Buffy Wicks (14th Assembly District), Consumer Safety Technology, LLC, $5,500; United Services Automobile Assoc. and Affiliated Entities, $3,000; California Association of Nurse Anesthetists PAC, $2,000. TOTAL: $10,500.
—Liz Ortega (20th Assembly District), United Services Automobile Assoc. and Affiliated Entities, $1,500 TOTAL: $1,500.
—Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (16th Assembly District), Blue Shield of California, $3,500; United Services Automobile Assoc. and Affiliated Entities, $1,500. TOTAL: $5,000.
—🧾EXPENDITURES—Form 496 Independent Expenditure Reports filed on Sept. 26.
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE SENATE
—Tim Grayson (9th Senate District), Building a Healthy Future for CA Facilitated by Agricultural Council of CA. SUPPORT. TOTAL: $100,000.
CITIES
LIVERMORE
—Tara Boyce (Livermore Joint USD), Livermore Education Association PAC. SUPPORT (Mailer—$2,240). TOTAL: $2,240.
—Christiaan Vandenheuvel (Livermore Joint USD), Livermore Education Association PAC. SUPPORT (Mailer—$2,240). TOTAL: $2,240.
OAKLAND
—Rachel Latta (Oakland USD-District 1), Oakland Education Association PAC. SUPPORT (Doorhangers—$2,726; Web Design—$208). TOTAL: $2,934.
—VanCedric Williams (Oakland USD-District 3), Oakland Education Association PAC. SUPPORT (Doorhangers—$2,385; Web Design—$208). TOTAL: $2,593.
—Sasha Ritzie-Hernández (Oakland USD-District 5), Oakland Education Association PAC. SUPPORT (Doorhangers—$1,703; Web Design—$208). TOTAL: $1,911.
