Things I think heading toward the stretch run to November

Oaklanders love passing ballot measures, but one mayoral candidate is against all of them. Plus, daily campaign finance data from across the East Bay

Rebecca Kaplan, left, helped Jean Quan, right, clinch a stunning comeback to win the 2010 Oakland mayoral race with the use of ranked-choice voting. Could ranked-choice come into play this fall?

ELECTION 2022

Days until Election Day: 53.

—THINGS I THINK—I think Oakland and San Leandro's ranked-choice mayoral elections will echo the 2010 results of the first use of the voting system. Both winners will come from behind to win on the backs of second- and third-place votes just like Jean Quan did in Oakland, and Stephen Cassidy did in San Leandro. In Oakland, the beneficiary might be Loren Taylor. In San Leandro, it really could be anyone.

—I think Rebecca Kaplan is going to be the next District 3 county supervisor. But for her own sake, she needs to put way more effort into understanding the majority of the district. Meaning, the vast majority that is not Oakland. Her understanding of Alameda, San Leandro, and the unincorporated areas is not good.

—I think anti-Kaplan groups in District 3 are going to plaster anti-Oakland messages all over the place in an effort to get Lena Tam elected. In the end, I don't think it will work, but, again, the negative sentiment will live on and make Kaplan's job as supervisor in the first year much harder.

—I think Terry Wiley's campaign for Alameda County DA is going to outclass Pamela Price over the next two months. There's been quite a bit of turnover with Price's campaign this year. The same with Wiley's, but it doesn't look like Price has improved on what has been a campaign populated with D-List local campaign talent. 

—I think San Leandro mayoral candidate Bryan Azevedo fundamentally doesn’t understands what it means to be a councilmember, let alone mayor. The job is about policy, not about one person and their vanity. Picking up garbage around town, feeding residents, or delivering prescriptions to seniors is nice, but not sustainable. What happens with those endeavors when Azevedo is out of office? Nothing.

—I think Janani Ramachandran is an intriguing candidate. She is likely to win the District 4 seat on the Oakland City Council. Ramachandran emerged out of nowhere in last year’s 18th Assembly District special election. She supported defunding the police and opposed the Howard Terminal ballpark project. Now she thinks Oakland needs more cops and sounds supportive of the ballpark plan. Is she a flip-flopper or someone willing to publicly evolve on issues? I think the latter, but we'll see.

—I do a mediocre impression of Alameda County Democratic Party Chair Igor Tregub on the East Bay Insiders Podcast. But I think Tregub has a good shot at refocusing this body, which has veered far away from raising money for its endorsed candidates and helping them win. Tregub seems to understand the central committee's role and he's also known as an effective behind the scenes operator. And to quote Tregub's common refrain, “Thank you so much."

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