This is what you have to lose
The Trump administration's anti-democratic moves have not yet hit Alameda County, but we're vulnerable, and the devastation to our way of life could become apparently quickly
—There’s a storm brewing, and its epicenter is nowhere near Alameda County — but the shockwaves from Los Angeles are already being felt here.
Two-thirds of Alameda County’s $5.1 billion budget is funded by the state and federal government. But under the current political pressure cooker it’s a vulnerability we can no longer afford to ignore.
The county plans to close a $105 million shortfall later this month without cuts to staff or services — a minor miracle in the face of fiscal headwinds. But how long can this house of cards stand?
Federal interference is growing more punitive by the day. The Trump administration’s second-term revenge tour is underway, and California — long a political punching bag — is squarely in its crosshairs. With so many declared sanctuary cities, we could be in Trump’s crosshairs soon, and this isn’t exactly Trump country. Three-fourths of this county voted against Trump last November.
The already “fuzzy” nature of Alameda County’s budget accounting won’t matter much if the president’s Department of Justice or Treasury Department moves to withhold or claw back funding from so-called “noncompliant” jurisdictions.
Threats to detain Governor Gavin Newsom have now escalated into transparent, yet novel legal maneuvers. The recent federalization of the California National Guard in Los Angeles — ostensibly to “restore order” — was just the beginning. The handcuffing of U.S. Senator Alex Padilla under questionable pretexts sent a chill across the state and nation. The Marines have been deployed.
If Trump moves to starve out treasury, Alameda County’s reserves may cushion the blow temporarily. Likewise, Measure W’s $550 million fund for housing and homelessness looms as a potential stopgap. But that’s a finite well, not a permanent solution.
—Here’s the reality: If Alameda County’s federal funding dries up, everything negative will trickle down to the county’s 14 cities and unincorporated areas. And right now, every single one of them — with the exception of Dublin, which holds a rare $16 million surplus — is underwater. All have massive unfunded pension liabilities that are further at risk by the current climate.
Oakland just balanced a two-year budget by banking on revenues tied to a ballot measure not scheduled until June 2026. That’s not budgeting; that’s crossing your fingers and hoping voters aren’t too tired, too angry, or too scared to turn out.
But here’s a real possibility: That election might not even happen. Under the current regime’s relentless erosion of democratic norms, an election in a year from now feels like a luxury we can’t be sure we’ll get.
When the dominos fall, they fall hard. Cities will see their funding for essential services — mental health, housing, elder care, child services — rolled back. Roads already considered among the worst in the state (Oakland and San Leandro) will crumble further. The Tri-Cities emerging development boom — powered by Silicon Valley’s top earners — will stall.
In Fremont and Union City, Tesla’s instability and Elon Musk’s erratic behavior have already tanked local sales tax revenues. Dublin, despite being cash-rich, has noted ominous trends in declining automobile sales — a red flag in a city reliant on economic optimism.
—And then there’s the human cost.
The economic anxiety is infecting the social fabric of Alameda County, especially its immigrant communities. These are the people who power our warehouses, restaurants, cleaning services, and child care centers — often for low wages. If fear of immigration raids, arrests, or even state-backed paramilitary actions drives them underground, entire industries will collapse. And when the workers go, so do the businesses.
Little Kabul in Fremont. It could become a ghost town. Similarly, the Fruitvale in Oakland — a rich mosaic of Latino culture — will suffer. In Hayward, where Latinos represent the largest demographic, the atmosphere is thick with dread.
We’re living through a silent unraveling, and if this sounds alarmist, good. Because it is alarming. If we stay silent, if we tell ourselves it’ll all work out in the end, if we convince ourselves that “it can’t happen here,” we’re deluding ourselves.
This is what you have to lose if you do nothing. Not just dollars and cents. Not just services. But people. Culture. Livelihoods. Civic trust. And perhaps, democracy itself.
Alameda County can’t stop the national tide on its own. But it can prepare. It can speak up. And it can lead. Because if we wait any longer, there won’t be anything left to lead.
