Three East Bay races that labor hopes to win big on Election Day
New ad attacks Pamela Price for comments made about Asian American voters; Labor IE backs Wahab with $200,000 for TV ads
ELECTION 2022
Days until Election Day: 1.
Ballots returned: Alameda County—19%. Santa Clara County—23%.
10TH STATE SENATE PREVIEW
—IEs DOMINATE—The type of cynicism some feel while they watch the national election coverage doesn’t really hold true when following the scene in the East Bay. Except for one race. The 10th State Senate District race between Aisha Wahab and Lily Mei is everything that people hate about politics. The loads of money poured into the race by outside interests supporting and opposing each campaign feels dirty to average voters.
—More than $7 million has been spent by special interests and labor unions for and against Wahab and Mei. Because the money is spent by Independent Expenditure Committees, the avalanche of their activities effectively pushes the campaign’s narratives to the side. This race’s narrative has been hijacked by the IEs. The end result then becomes a very nasty fall campaign.
—Not to absolve labor unions, which have poured more than $1 million into television ads in favor of Wahab, and in the just the past few days, another $200,000 against Mei, but the nastiness has come from corporate interests backing Mei. Voters in the 10th State Senate District, which runs from Hayward down to Sunnyvale, have seen IEs darken the skin of Wahab in some mailers, ham-handily linked her to a former candidate in Santa Clara County who made somewhat supportive comments about a convicted rapist, and labeled her “dangerous.”
—Pieces paid for by labor unions, and some of their television commercials over the past year in support of Wahab have missed the target, such as several in the primary that asserted Mei is against police reform. That issue was probably not paramount in voters’ minds in June 2022. But a spate of mailers and the recent commercial highlighting Mei’s involvement in the controversy involving Fremont’s former city manager and allegations of embezzlement is an issues that cut across all political persuasions. Nobody likes the appearance of corruption by an elected official.
—But with all the money being spent on this Dem-on-Dem race, and the continued spending by IE through this past weekend, bolsters the idea among insiders and observers that this race is very close. So much so that a winner may not emerge for a few days.
—Mei won the June primary by three points over Wahab. The flow of the results on this Election Night might mimic the June primary. Fueled by Republican voters who often vote early, Mei jumped out to a nearly 10-point lead when results were first released last June. As the night and days went by, Wahab gained the advantage.
—During the primary, Mei did well in the Santa Clara County half of the 10th District. It’s been the Wahab campaign’s goal to cut into that advantage this fall. Mei, who is the mayor of Fremont, won her city in the primary, but not by very much. The negative mailers attacking Mei for the city manager controversy might sway more Fremont voters. Asian American voters will also hold sway in this election, but they are not a monolith. Recall, the unions sent negative mailers against Mei in both English and Chinese.
—There’s so many variables in this race and they all involved the IEs. Did an early onslaught of mailers sent by IEs that favor Mei pull the trigger when ballots were first sent and nobody was paying much attention? It may be possible that the sheer volume of mailer from both sides overwhelmed voters? After four or five mailers, some voters start getting upset, which places a negative marker against the candidate in their minds.
—If Mei wins, it was because her own campaign was successful in providing very little substance to her ideas. That’s because her record does not jibe with the district’s left-of-center politics. Mei is basically State Sen. Steve Glazer, someone who local Democrats view as an interloper. The stage for a Mei victory may have been set about a year ago when the California Redistricting Commission cut out San Leandro and unincorporated Alameda County from the new 10th District. These area would have undoubtedly went to Wahab.
—If Wahab wins, it was because her messaging felt complete and genuine to voters. It also will mean that Mei’s experience, promoted by her campaign as a strength, was used against her. Being the big city mayor also means everything wrong that happens in your city is your fault. Also, avoiding controversy during the fall election by effectively going radio-silent is also not a very good strategy. It only hints at guilt.
20TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—TONE SET EARLY—Like the wildly expensive 10th State Senate District race that overlaps it, the 20th Assembly District race between Democrats Liz Ortega-Toro and Shawn Kumagai is currently is the fourth most-expensive legislative race in the entire state.
—And like SD10, this campaign has been nasty. Unlike SD10, the vitriol stoked by IEs started in the primary. The tone of this fall campaign was set just days before Primary Day when an IE sent voters a mailer that highlighted Ortega-Toro’s past personal financial issues, along with that of another progressive candidates on the June ballot.
—Right off the bat, a related IE rekindled the Ortega-Toro attack piece for the fall campaign season. The mailer was slammed by Ortega-Toro after it included her home address. It was the work of an IE, Kumagai’s campaign offered. But the excuse rang hallow just a week ago when Kumagai’s own campaign sent at least two mailers that sought to link Ortega-Toro to the defund the police movement simply by association. The mailers used images of a Latino family along with describing Ortega-Toro as “extremely dangerous.”
—Insiders generally believe Ortega-Toro has the edge in this race. But the ebb and flow of the IEs strategies and spending suggest the race had somewhat tightened up over the past two weeks. An IE supporting Ortega-Toro seems to have identified a weakness in support among Tri-Valley voters when it released mailers that positioned Ortega-Toro as a defender of single-family housing, while tagging Kumagai, a Dublin councilmember, as a supporter of large “luxury apartment” buildings. That’s a play by Ortega-Toro’s IEs for Dublin votes because it doesn’t fit neatly with her overall progressive politics which, in this case, would typically support high-density housing.
—A win by Ortega-Toro (and Wahab in SD10) would be a major victory for the labor movement and give Central and Southern Alameda County two potentially high-profile, young, female legislators in Sacramento. Ortega-Toro, because of her background with the influential Alameda Labor Council, could become the next Lorena Gonzalez, the pro-labor former assemblymember who recent took over as head of the California Labor Federation.
ALAMEDA COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
—KAP MAY UPEND PLANS—The person who replaces the late-Supervisor Wilma Chan was supposed to be an Asian American, according to some. That was the clamoring when an appointment to the District 3 seat followed Chan’s tragic death in November 2021. Politics took over and Chan’s chief of staff Dave Brown was appointed and the behest of Attorney General Rob Bonta.
—Flash forward to the day before Election Day and it appears the wishes of many Asian Americans in the community will be dashed. Oakland Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan is projected to win the District 3 seat, and some believe quite handily. Others believe by percentage points over former Alameda Councilmember Lena Tam.
—Kaplan is one of the most effective legislators in local politics, but she has quite a few detractors who question her work ethic and believe she’s an attention hound. Kaplan’s won the June primary with 41 percent of the vote, which was short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff. Tam finished second with 28 percent.
—Did Tam do enough to whittle away at the 13-point advantage? Labor unions were quietly touting polling that showed a whopping 30-point advantage for Kaplan. If there’s any truth to that survey, the lead has probably shrunken after Tam’s campaign began relentlessly hitting Kaplan for being part of the Oakland City Council’s proposal two year ago to cut it’s police department’s budget by 50 percent over a two-year period. This element has existed in Kaplan’s oppo research for some time. It was mostly avoided during the primary and unclear why it took until the last moments of the campaign to be highlighted. On the other hand, this is the time when most people are filling out their ballots.
—The seeds for Kaplan winning probably come from these factors: She has much higher name-recognition among voters outside of Oakland. Tam has been out of elected office for nearly a decade. It’s unclear whether most Alamedans even remember her. Tam’s campaign has also been greatly aided by IEs supported by landlords groups, such as the California Apartment Association. Although there’s more homeowners in the unincorporated areas, the rest of the district, which includes Alameda and San Leandro, along with a portion of Oakland, is pro-renter.
ALAMEDA COUNTY DISTRICT ATTORNEY
—PRICE ATTACK AD—A new ad takes aim at Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price’s comments from last August about the Asian American community. The 30-second ad highlights Price’s response to a question about recalled San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin.
—Price suggested the opposition to Boudin came from leaders in the San Francisco Asian American community. The context of these comments are even worse than the ad states. Price made them during an endorsement meeting for the Asian Pacific American Democratic Caucus, first reported here. Needless to say, she didn’t receive their endorsement.
—The ad was paid for by Golden State Communities Project, an IE backed mostly by law enforcement groups, including the Fremont Police Officer’s Association.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE NOTES
10TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—TV ADS FOR WAHAB—An IE, backed by labor unions, is making its final push for 10th State Senate District candidate Aisha Wahab. Opportunity PAC, an IE backed by teachers, city employee groups, and health caregivers, spent nearly $200,000 this weekend on television commercials in support of Wahab and opposing her opponent, Lily Mei. The ads appear to be airing during local newscasts.
—Opportunity PAC spent nearly $500,000 last Oct. 25 on television ads supporting Wahab and opposing Mei. During the June Primary and this fall’s General ElectIon, the IE has mainly focused on negative ads against Mei.
OAKLAND MAYOR
—MORE $$ FOR THAO IE—The SEIU Local 1021 Issues PAC contributed over the weekend $100,000 to Working Families for a Better Oakland, the union’s IE backing Sheng Thao’s campaign for Oakland mayor. SEIU, along with other Oakland labor unions have spent roughly $800,000 in support of Thao. This particular SEIU Local 1021 PAC, however, has been mostly used to support Oakland ballot measures on this fall’s ballot.
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