Updated outlooks for all the East Bay June primary races
Expected low-turnout and big-time IE spending has significantly changed the calculus in a number of East Bay primary races
ELECTION 2022
—ONE DAY TO PRIMARY DAY—The money has been raised and largely spent. Candidates all over the East Bay are now rushing to get out the vote. Tomorrow the waiting begins before early results are released sometime after 8 p.m.
—The biggest question mark for all races is the realization that voter turnout will be low. As of this weekend, just 13 percent of Alameda County voters have returned their ballot. That number portends for a possible primary turnout of around 25-30 percent.
—Alameda County is not unique. Low turnout is expected to plague the entire state. Exactly why people are not voting is a mystery to be solved later. But the entire rhythm of this primary election in the East Bay certainly has a retro feel to a time when most people voted at the polls and campaigns timed their mailers and attacks for the last few weeks before Election Day.
—When I urged voters in this newsletter a few weeks ago to hold off voting too early or risk missing the coming shift in narrative, I was right.
—With a day before Election Day, I’ve updated all the East Bay Insider June Primary Previews, and some of the outlooks have considerably changed since earlier this month. Most of the changes can be attributed to a torrent of Independent Expenditure Committee money that has upended some state legislative races, in addition, to the new calculus that comes with low-to-very low turnout in Alameda County.
ALAMEDA COUNTY DISTRICT ATTORNEY
—MAY 17 OUTLOOK—The central choice for voters is whether or not they believe the Alameda County DA’s office needs wholesale change or some reforms? Price’s argument for an overhaul of the DA’s office has been forcefully articulated for several years and it hasn’t changed during this primary campaign. It’s very likely, if elected, that Price will push for extensive reforms and will likely make extensive personnel changes. Because Price has been on the ballot so many times, the consensus is she finished first or second and nabs a spot in the November runoff, which is triggered if no candidate wins a majority of the vote in June. However, keep in mind that Price is very much a regional candidate. She faired extremely well in 2018 in Oakland and Berkeley, the progressive parts of Alameda County, but struggled elsewhere. Despite Price’s extensive campaign experience, she has never won a big race. Independent Expenditure Committees are very present in this race, but as today, none have gone negative. Don’t expect the powder to be left dry very long. Wiley and Wilson are somewhat similar candidates, but both have very well-funded campaigns. Either could land in a November runoff, maybe they face-off in November? It’s too early to tell if Wilson’s attack in Wiley changes the needle. There are some signs that Wilson’s campaign is trending favorably of late. Meanwhile, Steward appears to be the boutique choice of Alameda County elected officials and political insiders. That support doesn’t translate to much at the polls, but there is a sense that Steward has a bright future somewhere in elected office. (Full Preview HERE)
—UPDATE—Disregard the set up for this race because there’s been a general stasis has gained hold over the past three weeks. Perhaps the new vote-by-mail strategy of getting out the vote a month prior to Election Day when ballots are dropped in mailboxes took precedent. After Jimmie Wilson firebombed Terry Wiley’s campaign with an aggressive mailer about a month ago, all four campaigns have kept low profiles. Seth Steward received the San Francisco Chronicle’s endorsement, but Pamela Price seems to have done a better job of publicizing the nice things they said about her. The IE spending has generally dried up in this race, but Wilson and Wiley have continued to fundraise in bigger numbers for this late in the game. As I wrote about yesterday, progressives like Price who are counting on places like Oakland to gather large numbers of votes might have problems because of low turnout. I picked Wilson and Price earlier this month, and I’m sticking to that prediction, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the result is flipped. We still don’t know the extent of the damage inflicted by Wilson’s devastating mailer.
ALAMEDA COUNTY SHERIFF
—MAY 18 OUTLOOK—The Alameda County Democratic Central Committee’s May meeting showed they and progressives at large sense that Ahern has escaped their clutches once again. Three members of the committee labeled Ahern some version of a Fascist Nazi. It was overheated rhetoric that only showed their frustration with how this primary campaign has gone for them. Like Pamela Price in the DA’s race, Ahern is also a regional candidate, but flipped. While Ahern is widely unpopular in Oakland and Berkeley areas, he is quite popular in the Tri-Valley and Southern Alameda County. Progressives never seems to understand this paradigm when it comes to Ahern. One of the most amazing storylines in this entire East Bay primary season is that Ahern’s campaign has moved forward virtually unscathed, a surprising development since progressives in this county had supposedly be laying the foundation to unseat him for years. The day came and they are likely to have failed miserably. In fact, it’s Ahern who has done potentially sizable harm to the Alameda County Democratic Party by using some of the party’s biggest names against them. It’s unconscionable that Swalwell, Brown, and Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley allowed themselves to be co-opted by Ahern, a Republican. With their help not only is it likely that Ahern wins another four years, but he has laid the foundation for ripping apart the Alameda Democratic Party. (Full Preview HERE)
—UPDATE—Challenger Yesenia Sanchez is one of the candidates in the East Bay who appears to be trending up at the right time. With just a tick over one in 10 Alameda County voters already casting a ballot, there’s room for Sanchez to win over voters at the wire. But whether or not Sanchez’s aggressive late charge is enough to block Sheriff Greg Ahern from a majority of the June vote remains doubtful. After some big-name Alameda County Democrats lent their support to Ahern, it appears the local party upped its game in support of Sanchez’s efforts. While the monetary help is paltry, the ground game in support of Sanchez has been full-throttle over the past week. I still think it’s too little, too late to stop Ahern from winning re-election outright unless Sanchez’s can hit a peak percentage around the low 40s and the other challenger, JoAnn Walker, can cobble together around 10 percent. If Sanchez makes the runoff, then it’s a whole new ballgame in November.
ALAMEDA COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS-DISTRICT 3
—MAY 19 OUTLOOK—In hindsight, this race has been nowhere near compelling as initially thought simply because the normal campaign cycle was significantly truncated by Chan’s untimely death. Being the next District 3 supervisor representing Alameda, San Leandro, Oakland Chinatown and Fruitvale, and San Lorenzo was on nobody’s mind. Chan would have likely run unopposed in June. What has transpired is a group of four candidates with lackluster fundraising numbers and platforms lacking specificity. It’s not a knock against each candidate, just the reality of these unique circumstances. Shortly after Chan’s death in November the talking point was that District 3 is the Asian seat on the Board due to its large demographic. Then it was the Asian woman’s seat. What ultimately occurred is state Attorney General Rob Bonta stepped in and helped usher in Chan’s chief of staff Dave Brown into office as a caretaker. The gambit may blow up in everybody’s face if Kaplan eventually wins the seat. In one way, this race is Turn Back the Clock Night at the polls. Kaplan has served on the Oakland City Council since 2008, but the three other candidates have been out of elected for more than a combined three decades. Grant last served in 2008, Kakishiba in 2012, and Tam in 2014. The four candidates are all pretty much progressives like Chan, so there’s little risk for changing the dynamics of the Board of Supervisors. But the unincorporated areas are a very important part of this district. One important pivot in this race is just cause protections for renters in unincorporated Alameda County. Kaplan is very supportive of enacting just cause, while Tam is less enthused about it. Kakishiba and Grant have somewhat ambiguous views on the subject. (Full Preview HERE)
—UPDATE—This is the most unpredictable race on the entire East Bay ballot. Making a prediction even a day before the polls close is a fool’s errand. On paper, Rebecca Kaplan should win this outright, but that doesn’t seem like it will happen. It’s even possible Kaplan doesn’t make it to the expected runoff. For some time, her strategy has been too focused on Oakland. Perhaps Oaklanders don’t even vote in numbers high enough to matter for Kapan. Lena Tam might also siphon Chinatown votes to her ledger. Another problem for Kaplan is that her three opponents appear to be all trending up, while she is not. Kaplan’s campaign can’t be in good shape if she’s loaning herself $12,000 just five days before the election, along with $5,000 from mom. A devastating result for Kaplan tomorrow seems unimaginable knowing the arc of her political career. Against my better judgment, I’m sticking with the top two, but flipping them. Tam first, on the backs on some big-time landlords’ money, and Kaplan limping into second.
20TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—MAY 20 OUTLOOK—Let’s start out by focusing on Republican Joe Grcar. Despite doing little in this race, he’s guaranteed at least 20 percent of the vote. In past 20th Assembly District primaries in which there was one Republican in the race, that candidate has garnered between 20 percent and 22 percent of the vote. This district is somewhat different because of redistricting but the inclusion of more progressive San Leandro is muted by the more moderate Tri-Valley. Grcar could be the kingmaker here and if Jennifer Esteen’s campaign is truly a dark horse, the percentage of the three Democrats will be lower and possibly veer close to Grcar’s baseline number. If Grcar is lucky enough to get into second place, the real benficiary will be who finishes first because the November matchup is guaranteed to be a rout. But there appears to be too much IE money backing Liz Ortega and Shawn Kumagai’s campaigns. IE mailers exponential increase the number of times their name, face, and message come before voters. There’s rumblings that the greater frequency of mailers from Kumagai’s campaign and the IEs over that of Ortega’s could tip put him in first place on Primary Day. Meanwhile, Esteen has run a strong first-time campaign. Her vigorous ground game has been noted by many East Bay insiders. If Villalobos’ progressive campaign against Quirk in 2020 actually revealed a district inching more to the left, then it would seem like Esteen should benefit this time around. (Full Preview HERE)
—UPDATE—With the state legislative races, we are not driving as blindly as the county races because of the tea leaves left by Independent Expenditure Committees. The amount of IE flowing to Shawn Kumagai continued, but suddenly dried up before a vicious mailer sent by Future PAC highlighted the personal financial troubles of his opponents, Liz Ortega and Jennifer Esteen. It was the first negative salvo in the entire campaign and it arrived just days before Election Day. I picked Kumagai and Ortega and it appears both campaigns are trudging along to that result, but Esteen is also making a frantic late push. Voter turnout is going to be low. Early data also shows that onlyt around 11 percent of all Republican voters have returned ballots, which might stop Joe Grcar from gaming the top two system by hoarding all the GOP votes. Going forward, although the attack on Ortega and Esteen was done by an IE, the bad taste of the hit won’t be forgotten by Ortega in the fall.
10TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—MAY 23 OUTLOOK—Aisha Wahab’s campaign is gobbling up labor support and supportive IEs are flocking to her. Lily Mei is doing the same with real estate and business interests, and the Ubers of the world. It’s going to make for a Titanic tilt from here to November. It’s not clear yet what this IE opposing Mei might do. One of their ads focuses on Mei declining to take a knee in solidarity with activists calling for police accountability. Mei’s LGBT issue is likely to eventually be the subject of an ad and that could prove devastating. If it happens soon, it would likely solidify Wahab’s chances for winning the primary, but the spread probably won’t be large, and set up a virtual restart of the campaigns on equal footing toward November. Like in some of these other state races where there is just one Republican in the field, Paul Pimentel can’t be discounted, but the voter outreach by Wahab, Mei, and the IEs have been massive, while the rest of the candidates, all unknown and still unknown, have barely shown up to the party. (Full Preview HERE)
—UPDATE—Earlier on, the IEs in this race clearly had a strategy to first boost either Aisha Wahab and Lily Mei, and then spend to attack them. IEs supporting Mei spent early and often and then the spigot oddly went dry. It’s still dry for Mei as an IE opposing her named Opportunity PAC continues to attack. The fact in tandem to this that continues to ring in my head is that Mei’s spent virtually all her campaign money over the last six weeks, while Wahab spent judiciously. A campaign like Mei’s, built to go through November does not empty its pockets like that in May. The central question about Mei’s IEs is this: Do they think their effort was well-spent and they’re standing pat, or do they think Mei’s campaign is now a lost cause? There might be some trouble her for Mei that was only bolstered in my mind when Opportunity PAC sent two mailers last week that appear aimed at boosting the lone Republican, Paul Pimentel, into second place. I’m sticking with Wahab in first on the backs of an IE spending $500,000 on television commercials that superbly highlighted her unique background. Mei has to still be in second, right?
24TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—MAY 24 OUTLOOK—Alex Lee is going to finish in first place in the primary. But he’s been acting borderline cocky about it and there could be some worry about hubris becoming an issue. So how does the rest of the field shake down? Kansen Chu presumably has good name-recognition in this district after serving as their assemblymember. But Chu, Keng, and Diep have not lit up the fundraising board, which could be telling. Frankly, why put your money against an incumbent assemblymember who checks most of the big boxes. Lee is progressive and Asian in a blue district. Teresa Keng could be a second-place player here because she’s the only woman in the field. As usual, Bob Brunton is also a big player with his 20 percent of the Republican vote locked down. (Full Preview HERE)
—UPDATE—This race has seen the most dramatic change in outlook of all. It is conceivable that Assemblymember Alex Lee could finish third after more than $1 million spent in a short period of time against him by a landlords’ IE. The “He Lives With His Mom” mailer almost feels like the IE was toying with Lee. We’re also seeing establishment Sacramento Democrats putting money into Lee’s campaign and it feels like a last-ditch effort to avert disaster. Lee’s response to the attacks haven’t exactly been aggressive, either. I went with Lee and Bob Brunton, but I don’t think there’s going to be enough Republican representation to get Brunton high enough in the polls. The landlords’ IE is also betting big money on Teresa Keng. In a race featuring four Asian American Democrats, I’m putting Keng in first based on the fact she is the only woman in the race, and bringing Lee down to second. No. I’m putting Kansen Chu in first. No. Second!
—BARBARELLA SPEAKS—When it comes to Hollywood actors making their presence known in East Bay politics, the name on the marquee is almost always Danny Glover. But Jennifer Esteen’s campaign for the 20th Assembly District attracted the support of the Jane Fonda Climate PAC, and a shoutout by Jane Fonda. Esteen’s platform has long supported the Green New Deal, which Fonda references in the short video posted on social media over the weekend.
—MINECRAFT REVISITED—Last week, an IE backed by landlords mocked 24th District Assemblymember Alex Lee in a mailer that describes him as a Democratic Socialist living with his mom and \a fondness for playing the video game Minecraft. Lee, who is clearly battling to gain a spot in the top two November Election on Tuesday, made light of the Minecraft slight in a video posted on Twitter on Sunday.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE ROUNDUP
—IE ACTION—Independent Expenditure Supporting Price for District Attorney 2022, the IE supporting Pamela Price, and backed by the family whose son was killed by Pleasanton Police and later received a $5.9 million settlement, has not been very active despite seeding the IE with $50,000 last April. The IE, though, is making another small late push with a $3,000 expenditure last Saturday for Facebook ads.
—Alysse Castro further invested in her insurgent bid to unseat Alameda County Superintendent L.K. Monroe with a $20,000 loan to her campaign on Friday.
—MONEYBALL—Here’s a roundup of Form 497 Late Contributions from Friday through Monday afternoon:
Lena Tam (Alameda County Board of Supervisors-District 3), California Apartment Association PAC $20,000… Rebecca Kaplan (Alameda County Board of Supervisors-District 3), Alameda Labor Council AFL-CIO Solidarity PAC $3,000…
Jimmie Wilson (Alameda County District Attorney), Thompson Garcia Law Corporation $2,000… Terry Wiley (Alameda County District Attorney), International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, Iron Ship Builders, Blacksmiths, Forgers and Helpers, Local 549 PAC $5,000… Greg Ahern (Alameda County Sheriff), Jason Hart of Fremont $1,000…
—Alysse Castro (Alameda County Superintendent), PACE of California School Employees Association Small Contributor $2,600… Cheryl Cook-Kallio (Alameda County Board of Education-Area 7), Sheet Metal Workers Local Union 104 Political Committee $1,250…
—Liz Ortega (20th Assembly District), Kathryn Stebner of San Francisco $4,900; Fremont Firefighters Local 1689 $4,900; (AFSCME Local 2620 PAC $2,000… —Aisha Wahab (10th State Senate District), Kathryn Stebner of San Francisco $4,900…
—Alex Lee (24th Assembly District), Sabrina Cervantes for Assembly 2022 $4,900; Richard Bloom of Santa Monica $2,500; Fremont Firefighters Local 1689 $2,400; Bay Area Municipal Elections Committee $1,500; Kevin McCarty for Assembly 2022 $1,500… Teresa Keng (24th Assembly District), Fremont Firefighters Local 1689 $2,400; Jennifer Wan of Fremont $2,000; Sheena Chang of Fremont $1,500…
—Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (16th Assembly District), California Building Industry Association PAC $4,000; Dairy Institute Legislative Committee $1,500… Mia Bonta (18th Assembly District) LE Gaming of Anaheim $4,900; California Nurses Association PAC $2,400.