PROLOGUE
Current 10th District state Sen. Bob Wieckowski is termed out of office this year. The nearly 1 million-person state Senate district had some significant changes made to it earlier this year due to redistricting. Gone is unincorporated Alameda County with the district shifting toward the smaller Santa Clara County portion to include Sunnyvale and more of the City of Santa Clara. The bulk of the district, though, still resides in areas from Hayward to Fremont.
MEET THE CANDIDATES
LILY MEI
Mei began her stint in Fremont politics as a school boardmember, city councilmember and then mayor in 2016. Her upset victory in the 2016 Fremont mayor’s race was a textbook example of a campaign creating a negative narrative for your opponent. The idea that Mayor Bill Harrison was in the pocket of developers stuck. In a city like Fremont, which resists new housing out of traffic concerns, Mei was swept in to the mayor’s office. But her tenure as mayor clashed with her rise as anti-developer. Because state laws prescribe a certain amount of new housing every year, Mei approved the projects. While combating Fremont’s homelessness crisis, she has face strong criticism from local NIMBY’s, especially during a bid to open a Homeless Navigation Center.
AISHA WAHAB
Her personal story is well-known. After losing her parents as a young child, Wahab and her sister were adopted by an Afghan family in Fremont. In 2018, after being elected to the Hayward City Council, she became the first Afghan American ever to reach elected office in U.S. history (Another Afghan woman in New England reached the milestone on the same night). During her first term in Hayward, Wahab has led an effort to create new housing, while adding protections for renters, and leading a movement toward police accountability.
JAMAL KHAN
During the campaign Khan has attempted to describe himself as an intellectual with a resume that includes interning for various high-profile Washington Democrats and working briefly at the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs during the Obama administration. His claim to fame in this race was the unorthodox move to include his personal cell phone on campaign yard signs. Khan also freaked out some voters after his campaign used voter registration information to text birthday wishes.
PAUL PIMENTEL
A first-time candidate, Pimental is the only Republican in the field. Pimentel is a pastor and owner of a telecommunications firm, according to this campaign website. His platform focuses on keeping businesses in California, and opposition to mask mandates.
JIM CANOVA
Canova has served on the Santa Clara Unified School District Board of Trustees in District 1 since 2010. He ran unsuccessfully in the 25th Assembly District primary in 2020.
RAYMOND LIU
No public information
PLOTLINES
A matchup between heavyweights Aisha Wahab and Lily Mei was seemingly pre-ordained for some time, which is a reason why no other credible candidates emerged. For this reason, both candidates appear to be holding fire until a likely head-to-head matchup in the fall. But the current storyline in this race did not happen within the confines of the campaigns, but at the Alameda County Democratic Central Committee last October after their near unanimous decision to find Mei to be anti-LGBT because of her record of exclusion as a school boardmember and Fremont councilmember, they determined. This incident weighs heavily over the entire race. Mei's largely avoided an apology for her past stances and uses “people over politics” as her campaign slogan. At this point in the primary, the Independent Expenditure Committees have taken over this race. AFSCME Local 3299 pledged $1 million toward supporting Wahab’s campaign. Three IEs have spent nearly $400,000 already in support of Mei’s campaign. Last week, an IE opposing Mei’s campaign and calling itself Opportunity PAC is sending out two mailers and budgeted $120,000 for digital ads. An IE backed by developers is running a television ad that blatantly lies about Wahab’s record on protecting renters. The Sacramento insiders say this race, because it could affect the Democrat’s state Senate supermajority, could be the most expensive race in California this fall.
PAST RESULTS
2018 JUNE PRIMARY
Bob Wieckowski (D) 102,122 votes (71.5%)
Victor San Vicente (R) 34,357 votes (24.0%)
Ali Sarsak (LIB) 6,420 votes (4.5%)
2018 NOVEMBER ELECTION
Bob Wieckowski (D) 205,239 votes (75.6%)
Victor San Vicente (R) 66,156 votes (24.4%)
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
AISHA WAHAB (D)—Jan. 1-April 23
Cash on Hand $316,658
Cash IN $167,173
Cash OUT $272,799
Debt $0
Donor Type: Labor unions. Top Donors: SEIU United Healthcare Workers West PAC $19,400; UA Local 342 $9,800; SEIU California State Council Small Contributor Cmte $9,700; IBEW Local 595 $9,700; California Teachers Association Small Contributor Cmte $9,700; AFSCME People Small Contributor Cmte $9,700; SEIU Local 1021 $4,900; Skinner for Senate 2022 $4,900; Hayward Firefighters PAC $4,900.
Top Endorsers: California Democratic Party, Rob Bonta, Bob Wieckowski, Bill Quirk, Planned Parenthood, Building & Construction Trades Council of Alameda County, California Labor Federation, SEIU, Alameda Labor Council
Independent Expenditure Committees: SUPPORT - U.C. Berkeley Custodians, Cooks, Groundskeepers, and Nurse Assistants Supporting Aisha Wahab for Senate 2022, Sponsored by AFSCME Local 3299; California Working Families Party; California Nurses PAC
LILY MEI (D)—Jan. 1-April 23
Cash on Hand $245,177
Cash IN $68,777
Cash OUT $158,899
Debt $0
Donor Type: Business/real estate/tech. Top Donors: ChamberPac Small Contributor Cmte $5,000; Tesla $4,900; Cal Fuels & Convenience Alliance PAC $4,900; Buck Gee, $4,900; California Medical Association PAC, $4,900; Fremont Firefighters Local 1689, $4,900; C.C. Yin $4,900; Yang Shao for Fremont City Council $4,900; Raj Salwan $4,900.
Top Endorsers: Ro Khanna, Nancy O’Malley, Raj Salwan, Yang Shao, C.C. Yin, John Dutra
Independent Expenditure Committees: SUPPORT - Keeping Californians Working; Keep California Golden, Davita Inc. Including Aggregated Contributions. OPPOSE - Opportunity PAC.
JAMAL KHAN (D)—Jan. 1-April 23
Cash on Hand $18,285
Cash IN $51,175
Cash OUT $32,990
Debt $0
Donor Type: Self-financed/individuals. Top Donors: Zahed Ahmed $4,700; Reena Khan $4,650; Mahbub Khan $4,500.
PAUL PIMENTEL (R)—Jan. 1-April 23
Cash on Hand $8,590
Cash IN $28,946
Cash OUT $34,478
Debt/Loans $54,700
Donor Type: Self-financed.
JIM CANOVA (D)—Jan. 1-April 23
Cash on Hand $1,470
Cash IN $2,843
Cash OUT $6,900
Debt $0
Donor Type: Individuals. Top Donors: Jeffrey Case $2,022; Christina Canova $1,000.
PRIMARY OUTLOOK
Aisha Wahab’s campaign is gobbling up labor support and supportive IEs are flocking to her. Lily Mei is doing the same with real estate and business interests, and the Ubers of the world. It’s going to make for a Titanic tilt from here to November. It’s not clear yet what this IE opposing Mei might do. One of their ads focuses on Mei declining to take a knee in solidarity with activists calling for police accountability. Mei’s LGBT issue is likely to eventually be the subject of an ad and that could prove devastating. If it happens soon, it would likely solidify Wahab’s chances for winning the primary, but the spread probably won’t be large, and set up a virtual restart of the campaigns on equal footing toward November. Like in some of these other state races where there is just one Republican in the field, Paul Pimentel can’t be discounted, but the voter outreach by Wahab, Mei, and the IEs have been massive, while the rest of the candidates, all unknown and still unknown, have barely shown up to the party.
PREDICTION
Top Two: 1. Wahab 2. Mei.