What's at stake
The winner of Tuesday's special mayoral election inherits a city government in disorder, the loser is likely done with politics. What to watch for after the polls close at 8 p.m.
MORNING BUZZ
—The campaigns for Oakland mayor are entering the calm before the storm. An unexpectedly close election between Barbara Lee and Loren Taylor is projected. Nerves are frayed on both sides. Labor unions and special interests have much to gain and much to lose.
Here’s the stakes for all involved in Tuesday’s special election:
BARBARA LEE
For an icon of the left and a stalwart progressive like Barbara Lee, she has a lot to lose in today’s special election. Namely, the tarnishing of her legacy. Lee’s bid for Oakland mayor, coming after decades in Congress often conjures references to her predecessor in Congress, Ron Dellums, and his panned term as Oakland mayor.
The electoral demise of long-time East Bay Rep. Pete Stark is also apt. Some decorated progressives just don’t seem to know when to quit!
If Lee loses the mayor’s race, her late legacy will include two middling runs for office—U.S. Senate last year and Oakland mayor.
Conversely, a victory for Lee means the senate run last year was merely a blip on her otherwise unbeaten electoral record. It allows Lee an opportunity to build upon her legendary record.
The depths of Oakland’s problems, if fixed, present an enormous opportunity for any capable politician. If Lee can fix Oakland’s deep-seated problems, it would arguably be her greatest accomplishment as an elected official.
On the heels of questions about President Joe Biden’s ability to serve another four years, questions about a succession plan will invariably be raised if Lee is elected mayor. Lee will have only 15 months to decide if she will run for a full four-year term in November 2026. By then, Lee will be 80 years old.
LOREN TAYLOR
For Taylor, defeating Lee is the type of major upset that catapults political careers. Outsiders did not see it coming, while only a few on the ground thought it was possible. Insiders, however, did think Taylor could make it a race, and he has.
A win is redemption for Taylor, who lost the 2022 mayoral race to Sheng Thao by a scant 677 votes after ranked choice voting tabulations. The realization that Thao’s victory may have allegedly been boosted by the Duongs’ funding of a nasty mailer just days before Election Day 2022, only adds to his vindication.
Governing, at least initially, will be harder for Taylor than Lee. The establishment from the city council, labor unions, and the Alameda County Democratic Party will be smarting.
The path to fiscal stability lies with seeking concessions from the city’s powerful unions, and Taylor has been clear that finding budget solutions around the edges, such generating revenues through traffic enforcement, as Lee has suggested, isn’t an option.
Taylor spent four years on the Oakland City Council, lost the mayor’s race in 2022, and had been laying the groundwork for a run in 2026, before the Thao administration imploded in disgrace and removal from office.
A loss likely means the end of Taylor’s career in public office. It’s difficult to see how he is able to amass the type of support and pool of donors that have backed him for the past 3-4 years.
OTHERS
For labor, a win for Lee buys them time to ride out Oakland’s fiscal woes without pressure to balance this year’s budget and the next on the back of its members. A loss will be catastrophic, not only for its members, but labor’s overall strength in Oakland. A Lee defeat will extend a series of ill-advised and expensive races, starting with Sheng Thao, that will raise questions about the decision-making of labor leaders.
A Taylor win will boost the increasingly legendary status of the folks behind the recalls of Thao and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price last November. An upset by Taylor makes Piedmont hedge fund manager Philip Dreyfuss, the top funder of the recalls, hands down, the most influential figure in East Bay politics.
OAKLAND SPECIAL ELECTION
ELECTION DAY
—WHAT TO WATCH FOR—When the polls close at 8 p.m. tonight, expect the first batch of results to arrive sometime within the half-hour.
—Typically, older, conservative voters send in their ballot early. This demographic likely favors Loren Taylor, and he needs high turnout from this group.
—The early turnout numbers show District 4, which supported Taylor in the 2022 mayoral election even though it was Sheng Thao’s council district, are turning in their ballots at a brisk pace.
—If Taylor has a chance at upsetting Barbara Lee, he needs to hold an early lead in first-place votes at the first release of results. Perhaps, at least, five points. The bigger the better for Taylor. As more ballots are county, the expectation is they will favor Lee, and therefore, shrink Taylor’s early advantage.
—Conversely, if Taylor is trailing Lee at the first post, it’s unlikely he can win, unless ranked choice voting tabulations somehow break heavily in his favor. Within this scenario, the race will need to be nearly tied for it to favor Taylor and second- and third-place support.
—Buoying Lee’s campaign is District 1, where early turnout numbers are also strong, trailing only District 4. The North Oakland area likely favors Lee’s progressive views. However, there’s a theory out there that some progressives secretly support Taylor, but publicly support Lee out of fear of being ostracized by their lefty friends.
—TURNOUT IS STILL LOW—Turnout in Oakland’s special election is 18.9 percent (47,199 out of 250,244 registered voters), as of Monday afternoon, according to the Alameda County Registrar of Voters office.
—If final turnout is about 35 percent, that means there are roughly 40,000 ballots on their way to the registrar’s office within the next seven days.
—WHISTLE WHILE YOU WAIT—The county registrar plans to release early ranked choice voting tabulations of the mayoral and council races on Tuesday night.
—The next update of the results, however, won’t come until Friday.
—The reporting gap has come at the consternation of campaigns, voters, and some county supervisors, in recent elections.
—During last fall’s general election, Alameda County was one of the slowest-counting counties in the state.
—DISTRICT 2 IS 4-PERSON RACE—The race to replace Nikki Fortunato Bas on the Oakland City Council in District 2 appears to be a classic ranked choice voting contest.
—Early internal polling suggested Charlene Wang, who was a candidate for the at-large council seat last fall, was cruising to victory. District 2 is often labeled the “Asian seat” on the city council.
—But labor unions have open the spigot on campaign cash in support of Kara Murray Badal, an unknown prior to this campaign.
—Observers believe the race has tightened up, making ranked choice voting tabulations the likely path to victory for one of the candidates. If so, candidates Harold Lowe and Kanitha Matoury could be kingmakers.
—CANARY IN A GOLDMINE—Passage of Measure A, the half-cent sales tax measure on today’s special election ballot, will not only impact the city’s pocketbook, but also inform discussions currently at the county level about a potential sales tax measure next year to fund the construction of affordable housing.
—Increasing the sales tax countywide is one of several funding mechanisms being eyed by the Board of Supervisors.
—If a simple majority of Oakland voters approve Measure A, the city’s sales tax will increase to 10.75 percent, the highest currently allowed by state law.
—Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley, who represents parts of Oakland, wants to see what Oakland voters think about Measure A, in an era when support for tax measures are diminishing around the county.
—“I think we’ll find out Wednesday how things work out in Oakland. I think that’s kind of an indication of voter sentiment,” Miley said at the board’s Health Committee meeting on Monday morning.
—“Voters in Oakland, unfortunately, tend to support every tax measure. If voters reject that, I think that’s an indication of where people are.”
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
—💰MONEYBALL—Form 497 large campaign contributions filed on April 14:
OAKLAND
SPECIAL MAYORAL ELECTION
—Barbara Lee for Oakland Mayor 2025, Service Employees International Union Local 1000 Candidate PAC, $1,300; Service Employees International Union United Service Workers West (SEIU USWW) Action Fund, $1,300. TOTAL: $2,600.
—Oakland Neighbors, Businesses & Public Safety Advocates for Loren Taylor for Mayor 2025 and against Barbara Lee, Brenda Harbin-Forte of Oakland, $1,000. TOTAL: $1,000.
—🧾EXPENDITURES—Form 496 Independent Expenditure Reports filed on April 14:
SPECIAL MAYORAL ELECTION
—Loren Taylor, Supporters of Barbara Lee for Oakland Mayor 2025, A Coalition of Business, Labor and Public Safety Organizations for A Better Oakland. 👎OPPOSE (Digital ads—$20,000, $200). TOTAL: $20,200. (Cumulative total spent: $288,204.)
—Barbara Lee, Oakland Rising Committee sponsored by Center for Empowered Politics. 👍SUPPORT (Campaign posters—$625). TOTAL: $625. (Cumulative total spent: $26,475.)
SPECIAL DISTRICT 2 COUNCIL ELECTION
—Kara Murray Badal, Fix Our City Oakland, Supporting Murray-Badal for City Council 2025, Sponsored by labor organizations.👍SUPPORT (Doorhangers—$4,439). TOTAL: $4,439. (Cumulative total spent: $267,228.)
—Kara Murray Badal, Fix Our City Oakland, Supporting Murray-Badal for City Council 2025, Sponsored by labor organizations. 👍SUPPORT (Texting campaign—$952, $690). TOTAL: $1,642. (Cumulative total spent: $268,870.)
