Will crime still be a top election issue next year?

DA Price recall campaign takes a big step forward and the registrar doesn't yet know the rules for a recall; Alameda County GOP to discuss traditional family values

—PREDICTING CRIME—It’s difficult, and probably foolhardy, to extrapolate the local political pulse too far in the future. Two years ago, prior to the 2022 election beginning to ramp up, it appeared that crime would be a major talking point in the East Bay.

—A year later, crime was featured in many candidates' platforms, but the fears over crime subsided by the 2022 election season, and voters, instead, backed a large number of criminal justice reformers, like Pamela Price.

—The odd-year cycle of crime fears have returned this summer, but with far more vigor than two years ago. The crimes are brazen and seemingly ubiquitous in Oakland with pockets of similar events occurring all over the East Bay.

—We’re still 15 months from the November 2024 elections when local mayoral, city council, and school board elections will be held.

—Crime is a decidedly local matter. Based on recent precedent these fall races will not revolve around crime, but issues such as housing, homelessness, and traffic.

—However, the March 2024 Primary is currently wading in the confluence of an election season and the growing furor over crime in the East Bay.

—The March Primary is dominated by state and federal races, along with the inclusion of four of the five Alameda County Board of Supervisors on the ballot. There may be some consequential ballot measure on the primary ballot, but it’s unclear whether any will touch up limiting crime.

—So, which March races will be shaped by the issue of crime?

—At the federal level, Oakland’s 12th Congressional District is currently up-for-grabs with BART Director Lateefah Simon as the frontrunner. But it’s not likely that crime is a top talking point for congressional candidates and voters, alike. Besides, Rep. Barbara Lee could still ditch her U.S. Senate run and seek re-election here.

—The three other East Bay members of Congress will have very little competition in March and November 2024. Same at the state level, at least, with the East Bay’s members of the state assembly where all five are almost guaranteed re-election.

—However, crime could be a major topic for the East Bay’s three open state Senate seats. In particular, because two of the three districts include areas that may be more sympathetic with a tough on crime platform.

—The 5th State Senate District orbits around San Joaquin County, but now includes the Tri-Valley in Alameda County. We tend to view the Tri-Valley as more friendly to law enforcement, but it’s not entirely homogeneous on the issue as one would think. But because there doesn’t appear to be a Tri-Valley candidate in the race, the discussion will likely shade toward rhetoric that is tough on crime and less criminal justice reform.

—The 9th State Senate District is almost exclusively a Contra Costa County seat and now includes San Leandro and the unincorporated areas of Alameda County. The same scenario as in SD5 is likely here, too.

—But less so is it in the 7th State Senate District that includes much more progressive locales like Oakland, Berkeley, and Alameda. Oakland, though, is perceived as the epicenter of the brazen crime everyone sees nightly on local TV and social media.

—The current roster of seven progressive Democrats in SD7 will need to pull back on their criminal justice reform stump speech, especially if the DA Price recall dominates the discussion and actually appears alongside them on the March ballot.

—Of the four Board of Supervisors races, only District 4, which includes Supervisor Nate Miley, Jennifer Esteen, and Esther Goolsby, is expected to be competitive. This is the race that is the most fascinating on this particular issue.

—Miley has long burnished a pro-law enforcement reputation and has repeatedly bashed Oakland’s response to crime-fighting. Recall last year that he labeled Oakland as “lawless.”

—Arguably, more than any other elected office, the Board of Supervisors are left to intimately dealwith the problems that other levels of governments fail to fix like recidivism, poverty, homelessness, etc.

—That’s where Esteen could also make an argument in this race without using tough on crime rhetoric that does not jibe with her progressive politics. The argument for an “holistic approach” to preventing crime is actually what county government does. This ethos is actually baked into almost every county department, and now it includes the sheriff’s office.

—Unlike a tough on crime strategy, which may lose its potency a year from now, for Esteen, a progressive approach to crime in a county race may have staying power.