Happy New Year! Before we start with 2024, let’s take a look back at 2023. It was a year in East Bay politics that acted a counterweight to a growing progressive movement, in particular, when it comes to law enforcement.
Voters in the 2022 elections clearly called for change. The amount of change in some cases have proven to be too much, too soon for the electorate, leading to the recall efforts all over Alameda County.
1. Campaign to recall Alameda County DA Pamela Price
An online petition posted early in 2023 that called for the recall of Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price garnered tens of thousands of signatures. It was the first sign that something was stirring in the county about law enforcement’s response to rising crime.
The recall effort named Save Alameda For Everyone (SAFE), funded by Oakland real estate interests, was formed and began it signature-gathering operation in late September. With a quick infusion of more than $600,000, SAFE says they already have way more than the 73,000 valid signatures needed to place the recall question on a special election ballot sometime in the spring.
The seeds of the recall were sown by seemingly daily news reports and viral videos that conveyed a sense, perhaps irrationally, that crime is out of control. Price was also her own worst enemy, avoiding victims of crimes and their families, and maintaining rigid progressive policies that her critics framed as “pro-criminal.” Later, Price would deride the recall campaign as right-wing zealots and equate them to Jan. 6 insurrectionists.
If the recall qualifies for the ballot, most political observers believe voters will approve the recall of DA Price. If so, the upending of another progressive DA in the Bay Area will be a top story in 2024, and Price’s replacement in the hands of the Alameda County Board of Supervisors.
2. Recall fervor was contagious in the East Bay
In addition to DA Pamela Price, there are up to six more recall campaigns brewing right now in Alameda County.
A recall against state Sen. Aisha Wahab was recently approved by the state Secretary of State to begin the signature-gathering phase. The recall effort is led by conservative Indian American groups unhappy with Wahab’s bill that sought to prohibit caste-based discrimination in the state.
After two Sunol school boardmembers angered the small unincorporated community by passing a resolution that opponents say blocked the LGBT Pride flag from being flown at the district’s one school, a recall of Ryan Jergensen and Linda Hurley quick sprung into action. The California Teachers Association recently donated more than $10,000 to recall campaign. The Sunol recall may be the most likely to be successful.
The other recall efforts are merely in the planning stage or merely aspirational. They include Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao (crime), Oakland Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas (crime), Union City Councilmember Jeff Wang (support of cannabis dispensaries).
3. Barbara Lee runs for U.S. Senate; leaves congressional seat open
When Rep. Barbara Lee announced her candidacy for U.S. Senate in February, months of skepticism followed. Amid middling poll numbers and an inability to raise money, would Lee really leave the congressional seat she’s held since 1998? The answer was yes. Yet despite the uphill battle ahead, Lee is still in the mix for a possible place in the top-two March primary.
Lee’s decision to leave congress led to a surprisingly unremarkable push to replace her in the 12th Congressional District. BART Board Director Lateefah Simon joined the primary race and quickly raised $300,000. Through the year, Simon has raised significantly more than the entire eight candidate field of opponents.
4. Oakland still doesn’t have a police chief
One of Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao’s first big moves was the firing of Police Chief Leronne Armstrong. The move was met with strong criticism from the local NAACP and many Oakland residents who believed Armstrong was making progress at the chronically downtrodden police department.
The move led to squabbling with the city’s Police Commission and an effective media blitz by Armstrong to regain his job. The entire controversy would morph into a push by the NAACP and others for Thao to call a state of emergency in response to rising crime, which she resisted.
The Police Commission ultimately provided Thao with a list of three candidates for the vacant police chief position, including Armstrong. Thao rejected all three this week and asked the commission for another set of candidates, thereby pushing the controversy well into the new year.
5. Generational change comes to the Board of Supervisors
Alameda County Supervisor Richard Valle passed away in January. The campaign to replace the local labor icon got ugly after SEIU Local 1021 pushed for a candidate that had only recently moved to the supervisorial district. Hayward Councilmember Elisa Marquez received the appointment, but more change is coming to the Board of Supervisors.
Supervisor Keith Carson’s last-minute announcement earlier this month that he will not seek re-election next March ends over three decades of service to the county, and set off a primary campaign for his seat that will be a sprint to Mar. 5.
In addition, long-time Supervisor Nate Miley is facing a tough re-election campaign against Jennifer Esteen. If Miley were to lose, a board known for its stability will be led in seniority by Supervisor David Haubert, who only joined the board in 2020.
6. Crime fears permeate across the region
It’s not surprising the Defund the Police era that blossomed during the pandemic would eventually be met with a strong counterweight. Fears of rising crime, particularly in Oakland, gave rise to the DA Pamela Price recall and much of the vitriol against Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao. Crime is indeed up in Oakland, but not necessarily in other areas of the county.
Nevertheless, there was a big push to expand the number of surveillance cameras on city street, surprisingly led by Berkeley. San Leandro and other cities followed. Walking patrols were reinstituted in some shopping district for the holiday season. However, adding new police officers to already undermanned forces continues to be difficult for many cities. Nevermind funding for new officers, there’s a scarce pool of viable candidates to go around.
7. Eviction moratoriums end, renters struggle to gain protections
Long-standing Covid-19-era eviction moratoriums came to end this year, but not without vigorous lobbying from mom and pop property owners. The county rescinded its eviction moratorium last spring. Oakland, Berkeley, and San Leandro phased theirs out through the end of last summer. San Leandro initially extended its eviction moratorium to 2024, but later rescinded that order three months later.
Meanwhile, the abrupt resignation this month of pro-renter San Leandro Councilmember Celina Reynes is likely to stall the push for renters’ protections in that city. The prospects for renters protections in unincorporated Alameda County also appear dim after the Board of Supervisors rejected legislation previously approved on first reading by a previous set of supervisors.
8. Israel-Gaza War stokes push for local resolutions
Following the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, a push for local municipalities to weigh-in grew quickly. Protesters strongly advocating for condemning Israel’s military response against residents of Gaza shut down a series of Berkeley City Council meetings.
The Richmond City Council led the way with a full-throated condemnation of Israel. Oakland followed with a muted version, but a viral video of Oakland speakers questioning whether Oct. 7 occurred and advocating support for Hamas drew national criticism.
Pro-Palestinian advocates have turned their attention to other East Bay cities, such as San Leandro, Hayward, and Alameda to approve Gaza resolutions. Each have quietly resisted. This story is not yet close to being fully written and the ultimate takeaway may not be about Gaza, but the birth of a general activist movement led by young people.
9. Election integrity is a growing concern
Fresh off the Alameda County Registrar of Voters certifying the incorrect winner of an Oakland school board race in November 2022, concerns about election integrity in Alameda County were high. The Board of Supervisors raised the prospect of recounting all ranked choice voting races in Alameda County, but later relented on that promise.
The compromise was to create an Alameda County Election Commission to oversee the registrar of voters in an advisory role to the Board of Supervisors. However, the commission started late. Its first meeting was this month with the March Primary just months away. Alameda County Registrar Tim Dupuis’ involvement in the commission’s work also raised questions about its ability to truly act as a watchdog for the embattled registrar.
All eyes will be on Dupuis for the March Primary, followed by the process of validating signatures for the Price recall, administering a potential recall special election, and the large November General Election.
10. A’s leave for Vegas
Oakland officials thought a deal for the A’s to build a waterfront ballpark at Howard Terminal was near. At the last moment, A’s owner John Fisher pulled the plug, sought a land deal in Las Vegas, and later received $380 million in funding from the Nevada State Legislature for a desert ballpark. Fisher is now derided as one of the worst owners in sports and Oakland has a semi-pro franchise named the B’s.
The only ray of hope for A’s fans in the East Bay is there remains a long list of steps before the A’s relocation is completely finalized. First and foremost, Fisher securing funding for the Vegas ballpark. Fisher’s track record for getting things done has proven to be abysmal in the past, and could yet be a stumbling block next year. A’s fans hope the savior of Oakland sports could be Warriors owner Joe Lacob.
ELECTION 2024
—CAMPAIGN FINANCE DATA—Below is Form 497 campaign contributions filed Dec. 22 through Jan. 28.
ALAMEDA COUNTY
SUNOL RECALL
—Recall School Board Trustees Jergensen & Hurley, California Federation of Teachers COPE, $10,795 (Dec. 21).
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
—Nate Miley (District 4), Construction and General Laborers Local 304, $5,000; Sheet Metal Workers' International Association Local #104, $2,500; Daniel Siegel of Oakland, $1,000 (Dec. 21); Bill Quirk of Union City, $1,000 (Dec. 22). TOTAL: $9,500.
—Jennifer Esteen (District 4), Dale Schroedel of San Francisco, $1,000 (Dec. 23); Daniel Neumayer of Oakland, $2,000; Brenda Vallenas of Oakland, $1,500; Arnie Fischman of Oakland, $1,000; Beth Ogilvie of Castro Valley, $1,000 (Dec. 27).
—Nikki Fortunato Bas (District 5), Karen Frances Grove of Menlo Park, $1,000 (Dec. 22).
—Ben Bartlett (District 5), Frank Brown Berkeley, $5,000; Sam Tradesse San Francisco, $2,500; Chris Freise San Francisco, $2,500; Mark Witriol Berkeley, $1,000; Brad O'Neill Anacortes, Wash., $1,000 (Dec. 21); Jay Freeman of West Hollywood, $1,000 (Dec. 26); Yasmeen Drummond of El Sobrante, $1,000; John Benson of Oakland, $1,000 (Dec. 27); Hulya Koc of San Francisco, $2,500 (Dec. 28). TOTAL: $17,500.
—John Bauters (District 5), Fred J. Bauters of Lisle, Ill., $20,000 (Dec. 22); Christopher Meyer of Minneapolis, Minn., $3,000 (Dec. 23); Maryam Asefinejad of Orangevale, Calif., $20,000; Daniel Golden of Santa Monica, $5,000 (Dec. 27). TOTAL: $48,000
ALAMEDA
—Alameda Forward (Measure E - Alameda USD parcel tax), Margie Sherratt of Alameda $1,000 (Dec. 27).
BERKELEY
—Committee To Support Berkeley Public Schools Educational Excellence Act of 2024 (Measure H - Berkeley USD parcel tax), California Federation of Teachers COPE Prop/Ballot Committee, $1,000 (Dec. 22).
SAN LEANDRO
—Dylan Boldt (City Council, District 6), California State Pipe Trades Council PAC, $5,000 (Dec. 26)
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE ASSEMBLY
—Buffy Wicks (14th Assembly District), Escrow Institute of Calif. PAC, $1,500 (Dec. 21); Faculty for Our University's Future, $3,000; 21st Century Alliance Good Government PAC, $1,500 (Dec. 22), EdVoice for the Kids PAC, $2,000 (Dec. 27). TOTAL: $8,000.
—Mia Bonta (18th Assembly District), East West Bank, $5,500 (Dec. 22).
—Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (16th Assembly District), Turo, Inc., $3,000 (Dec. 21). TOTAL: $4,000.
—Liz Ortega (20th Assembly District), California Professional Firefighters PAC, $1,000 (Dec. 21; SEIU Local 521 Candidate PAC Small Contributor Committee, $2,500 (Dec. 22); California State Pipe Trades Council PAC, $5,000 (Dec. 26). TOTAL: $8,500.
STATE SENATE
—Jesse Arreguin (7th Senate District), U.A. Local 38 Cope Fund, $5,500 (Dec. 21); California Professional Firefighters Political Action Committee, $5,500; State Building and Construction Trades Council of California PAC, $5,400 (Dec. 22); California State Pipe Trades Council PAC, $10,900 (Dec. 26); Independent PAC Local 188 IAFF, $2,500; Bill Dodd for Lt. Governor 2026, $1,000; Josh Becker for Senate 2024, $1,000 (Dec. 27). TOTAL: $31,800.
—Jovanka Beckles (7th Senate District), Progressive Era PAC, $2,417; Teamsters Local 853 PAC, $1,000 (Dec. 22).
—Sandre Swanson (7th Senate District), Ford Motor Company Civic Action Fund, $5,500; Wells Fargo & Company Employee PAC, $1,500 (Dec. 21). TOTAL: $7,000
—Dan Kalb (7th Senate District), Robert S. Epstein of Berkeley, $1,000 (Dec. 23); Gary Kremen of Menlo Park, $1,001; Kenneth Schmier Emeryville, $2,000; Diana Kos Oakland, $1,000. (Dec. 26); Sunrun, Inc., $2,000 (Dec. 2)7). TOTAL: $7,002.
—Kathryn Lybarger (7th Senate District), California Teachers Association Association for a Better Citizenship, $10,900 (Dec. 21); Maria Elena Durazo Democrat for State Senate 2022, $5,500; Equality California PAC, $5,500; Central Coast Labor Council PAC, $1,000 (Dec. 26). TOTAL: $22,900.
—Tim Grayson (9th Senate District), Encore Capital Group, Inc., $2,000; 21st Century Alliance Good Government PAC, $2,000; California Association of Nurse Practitioners PAC, $1,500; Delta C, LP, $1,500 (Dec. 22); EdVoice for the Kids PAC, $2,000 (Dec. 27). TOTAL: $9,000.
—Jerry McNerney (5th Senate District), Howard Fields Berkeley, $1,000; Howard Welinsky North Hollywood, $1,000 (Dec. 24); Stephen M. Silberstein of Belvedere $5,500 (Dec. 22); Jim Wiggett of Pleasanton, $5,500; Greater Lodi Area Democrats, $1,000; Marc Rieffel of Oakland, $1,000 (Dec. 26). TOTAL: $15,000.
—Carlos Villapudua (5th Senate District), Edward J. Donaghy of Fresno, $4,000; Doctors Company PAC, $3,500; California Dental Association PAC, $3,000; Californians Allied for Patiend Protection PAC, $3,000 (Dec. 22); California Permanente Medical Groups PAC, $5,500; Glass Packaging Institute, $1,000 (Dec. 23); California Cattlemen's Association PAC, $2,000; Associated Builders and Contractors Northern California Chapter PAC, $2,500; Concerned Americans for Responsible Government, Sponsored by the California Trucking Association, $1,500; Truck Unit PAC, $4,000 (Dec. 27). TOTAL: $30,000.
