EAST BAY SUMMIT
The East Bay Summit at Alameda Point was a smashing success on Saturday afternoon.
Thank you to our superstar panel, including State Sen. Aisha Wahab, Alameda County Sheriff Yesenia Sanchez, Fremont Councilmember Raj Salwan, and At-Large Oakland City Council candidate LeRonne Armstrong.
Thank you to the East Bay Insiders team for all their help last Saturday, along with our MC Dan Mendoza, co-host Shawn Wilson, and DJ Herbie.
Thank you to everyone who braved the misty midday weather to attend the inaugural summit and to all my loyal subscribers.
We will replicate this event and format again in another part of the county soon. In the meantime, look out for our next event.
Details are still being worked out, but the plan is for an election preview with my favorite reporters and political consultants sometime in mid-September.
In addition, the 100th episode of the East Bay Insiders Podcast will be a live recording, venue to be determined, and slated for early December.
Thank you,
steve
ELECTION 2024
99 days to Election Day
—STARTING GATE—Races are still developing across the East Bay at the 100-day mark to the Nov. 5 election. Prospective candidates have until Aug. 9 to file their candidacies.
—Nevertheless, the fall campaign season is likely to be heavily influenced by several factors, but two are significant.
The FBI raids last month will affect not only Oakland races. There may be ramifications for a few in other cities.
The “Kamala Harris Effect” could also loom large in races, in particular those including female candidates.
FBI RAIDS
—HOLDING PATTERN—We don’t yet know what the FBI is investigating, but it may very well involve more players other than Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao, her partner Andre Jones, the Duong Family, and Oakland businessman Mario Juarez.
—California Attorney General Rob Bonta was especially tight with the Duongs, although there’s no hint of impropriety involving him at this time.
—But the link is a big negative for Bonta and those in his orbit. Candidates might be advised to be wary of his endorsement until the coast is clear.
—One candidate that would have prospered with Bonta’s backing under different circumstances is Rowena Brown, Assemblymember Mia Bonta’s district director and candidate for the at-large Oakland City Council seat.
—The Vietnam trip led by the Duongs last summer could loom large in the FBI investigation story. The rumors about the trip run the gamut from inappropriate to deprave.
—Concrete evidence could adversely affect the re-election chances this fall of some who took the Vietnam trip, but also cast a negative pall over incumbents that are innocent bystanders in all races in the East Bay. That’s how bad these rumors are.
—Large campaign contributors should also be wary of who they give money. We don’t know how big a net the FBI has cast in the East Bay. Any accessory to a potential crime and those even tangentially connected to the story will be tainted.
—We’re likely to see in some competitive races negative mailers by opponents against those who accepted contributions over the years from the Duongs, such as Oakland Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas and San Leandro Councilmember Bryan Azevedo.
KAMALA EFFECT
—THEY’RE WITH HER—It’s only been one week since Vice President Kamala Harris essentially became the presumptive Democratic Party nominee for president, but early conventional wisdom is women candidates and, in particular, African American women candidates will get a boost at the poll in Alameda County.
—Turnout in deep blue Alameda County was already expected to be very high this November, and it may grow larger with the East Bay native leading the ticket.
—These candidates, all likely to be in competitive races this fall, may expect a boost from the zeitgeist around Harris. That is, if their campaigns make voters aware of the connection to the vice president.
Pamela Price - DA recall - The Kamala Effect is a small lifeline to Price’s uncertain future. Its effectiveness, though, may be muted because Harris’s platform is likely to focus on law and order, while Price’s issue is being labeled by opponents as soft on crime.
Sheng Thao - Mayoral recall - Thao’s campaign will likely try to make the connection to Harris. They’ve already employed several strategies from victimhood, an attack from elites and Republicans, to acting like a recall and FBI raid never happened. Why not use Harris’s historical run for president?
Angela Andrews - Hayward City Council, at-large - Four seats are available. Andrews is not only the only woman in contention, but the only African American.
Carroll Fife - Oakland City Council, Dist. 3 - She’s going to face a tough re-election against a large field.
Rowena Brown - Oakland City Council, at-large - Brown and Love, below, unfortunately for their chances against a strong favorite, may cancel out any benefits from a Harris bump.
Tonya Love - Oakland City Council, at-large
Nikki Fortunato Bas - Although not African American, Bas is already viewed as a strong female official within her electorate. It won’t be hard to transfer that perception to a connection to Harris.
Marisol Rubio - Again, not African American, but Rubio exudes the same youthful exuberance that Harris brings to voters.
—NOT FIXIN’ TO FILE—In several cities, people are just not interested in running of local office. Oakland and Berkeley, we’re not talking to you!
—Since 2016, the number of total candidates running the fall election has hit a high of 310 in 2002, and a low of 264 in 2016.
—Early trends suggest the number of East Bay candidates on the ballot will be closer to the latter.
—The Alameda County Registrar of Voters lists 114 candidates have pulled papers, as of this morning. Another 96 have filed for council seats in their respective cities. These nominations are not yet included in the registrar’s running tally.
—Below the number of total candidates that ran in the last four General Elections in Alameda County:
2016 General Election 264
2018 General Election 294
2020 General Election 310
2022 General Election 288
2024 General Election 210, as of July 29.
—There could be many reasons for why fewer residents are eyeing public office. But the state of discourse in our local and national politics is often mentioned as a reason.
—In the past year, four councilmembers in Alameda County abruptly resigned from their councils.
—Three cited the venomous conversations with council colleagues and the public, the other left in frustration have repeatedly failing to find an affordable home to purchase in his own city.
—In addition, the recall of four Alameda County elected officials this year is also a sign that politics in this era can be especially treacherous. Two in Sunol has already been recalled from office.
—Recall questions for Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price and Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao will be on the Nov. 5 ballot.
—CROWDED HOUSE—Meanwhile, 20 percent of the current roster of potential candidates come from just six races, lead by two Oakland City Council races.
Oakland City Council, at-large 10
Oakland City Council, District Three 7
Hayward USD 7
Livermore Joint USD 6
Berkeley mayor 6
Dublin mayor 5
—Notably, the Hayward school board race for three at-large seats has attracted seven filers. This race could be the local epicenter for a push by the California Republican Party to focus on winning seats at the school board level.
—WHAT ELECTION?—More than halfway through the nomination period, the election websites for Livermore, Pleasanton, Hayward, and San Leandro provide no information about the candidates running for local office.
—It’s a worrisome development that aids incumbents and could negatively influence who may or may not run in these three cities.
—For weeks, Pleasanton’s election site featured a link to candidates from the 2022 cycle. The link is now broken. The link to Hayward’s 2024 candidate list is also broken.
—If you can find campaign finance information on the Alameda and San Leandro websites, then you’re probably still living in 1998.
NOMINATION PERIOD
—PULLING PAPERS—Candidates who pulled papers on Friday.
Jacinta Arteaga - Newark City Council
Marcus Bourlard - Union City mayor
Logan Bowie - Berkeley mayor
Sharon Coco - Fremont USD, Area 1
Andy Katz - Berkeley City Council, Dist. 6
Carole Marasovic - Berkeley Rent Stabilization Board
Deborah Matthews - Berkeley City Council, Dist. 3
John “Chip” Moore - Berkeley City Council, Dist. 3
Midji Rovetta - New Haven USD, Area 1
Ramnath Shanbhogue - Dublin USD, Area 1
Linda Susoev - Fremont mayor
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
—MONEYBALL—Form 497 campaign contributions filed on July 22-28:
ALAMEDA COUNTY
BART BOARD OF DIRECTORS
—Melissa Hernandez (BART Board-District 5), IBEW Local 595, $5,000. TOTAL: $5,000.
CITIES
FREMONT
—Teresa Keng (Fremont City Council, Dist. 1), Americans 4 Hindus-California, $700 (May 2). TOTAL: $700.
—Teresa Cox (Fremont City Council, Dist. 6), Americans 4 Hindus-California, $700 (May 2). TOTAL: $700.
NEWARK
—Julie Del Catancio (Newark City Council), Julie Del Catancio, $5,100. TOTAL: $5,100.
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE SENATE
—Tim Grayson (9th Senate District), PG&E Corporation, $5,500; Western States Petroleum Association PAC, $5,500. TOTAL: $11,000.
STATE ASSEMBLY
—Mia Bonta (18th Assembly District), SEIU Local 521 Candidate PAC Small Contributor Cmte, $5,500. TOTAL: $5,500.
—Liz Ortega (20th Assembly District), Plumbers & Fitters Local 761 PAC Small Contributor Committee, $5,500. TOTAL: $5,500.
—A free community screening of The Apology, the riveting documentary about the Alameda County Board of Supervisors forced removal of residents from unincorporated Russell City, is coming to Hayward on Aug. 2. Click the graphic below for more information.
