7th State Senate Preview: Lots of ideas. Lots of money

Campaigns all over the East Bay are getting chippy; Developers hit Lybarger with a nasty mailer; District 5 supe candidates respond to public safety; GOP-on-GOP mind games in primary against Swalwell

Seventh State Senate District candidates (L-R): Jovanka Beckles, Jesse Arreguin, Kathryn Lybarger, Sandre Swanson, and Dan Kalb.

ELECTION 2024

22 days to Primary Day

7TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT

—OVERVIEW—This district was renumbered from nine to seven after state redistricting in 2021. But the switch is official after this election. The new 7th District includes Oakland, Berkeley, Alameda, Piedmont, and Albany in Alameda County, and Richmond, San Pablo, Albany, El Cerrito, Hercules in Contra Costa County. Five Democrats and one Republicans are competing in the March 5 top two primary to replace termed out state Sen. Nancy Skinner.

—THE CANDIDATES—

• Jesse Arreguin-D, Berkeley mayor

• Jovanka Beckles-D, AC Transit board director

• Dan Kalb-D, Oakland councilmember

• Kathryn Lybarger-D, California Labor Federation president

• Jeanne Solnordal-R, broker

• Sandre Swanson-D, fmr assemblymember

—WHERE DO THEY STAND?—Give these candidates big props. The depth of their platforms are high-level. However, their progressive ideology is strong, making it difficult to discern any daylight between their platforms. Republican Jeanne Solnordal has not participated in the campaign.

ARREGUIN

Arreguin, the two-term mayor of Berkeley says he’s a "proven progressive problem-solver.” His platform is dedicated to improving public safety, hiring more cops, banning ghost guns, and buildng more housing.

Arreguin, like every Democrat in this primary race, supports bringing back a modified form of the state’s Redevelopment Agency, which fostered development across the state, but was dissolved by then-Gov. Jerry Brown in 2012.

Arreguin also supports violence prevention programs, regional collaboration on public safety, Oakland’s ceasefire program, and tax incentives for small businesses to upgrade their security systems.

BECKLES

The former Richmond councilmember and current AC Transit board director, is the most progressive candidate in this strong field of progressives. Beckles is also the darling of the local Democratic Socialists of America.

Beckles’ record in Richmond includes banning the box, enacting rent control, and raising the city’s minimum wage to the highest in state. She is also a major opponent of Chevron, which runs the refinery in Richmond.

Building housing without rent control means nothing, Beckles says. Affordable housing is the only way out of this crisis. “We can't build our way out of the crisis.”

LYBARGER

A gardener by profession, Lybarger represents more than 33,000 AFSCME union workers, mostly women and immigrants, she often notes. She plans to raise wages to allow workers the ability to afford to live where they work.

At a candidate forum on Thursday, Lybarger referenced the San Diego Community College District recently raising wages to $30 and hour.

The housing crisis is fueled by low wages and affordability, Lybarger says, and lack of supply.

She says public safety is more than police officers. Health care workers, behavioral health workers, social workers, etc., are needed to make police officer's work easier, she says.

KALB

The Oakland councilmember has always been about climate change. In this campaign, he’s also highlighting the need for affordable housing and gun violence prevention.

Kalb supports a modified version of the Redevelopment Agency with a focus on building low to very low-income housing units across the state.

Kalb wants to lead efforts to rehab state prisons in order to reduce recidivism. He would increase state funding for re-entry services at county jails.

SWANSON

Swanson, a former Oakland assemblymember who served in 2000s, wants to stop the crime wave currently ravaging the Bay Area. He would move to end “unsafe” homeless encampments with humane policies, redefine the safety net to assure people can be housed, increase state funding for police departments, and make schools “top in the nation.”

—CAMPAIGN FINANCE—Arreguin has been the runaway top fundraiser not only in this primary, but the most prolific of any candidate during this election cycle. Lybarger has also posted impressive fundraising totals to somewhat keep pace with Arreguin.

—But this race is destined to be a battle of independent expenditure committees supporting and opposing both Arreguin and Lybarger with seemingly unlimited money.

—Lybarger has more than $2 million in potential support from two IEs backed by her union, AFSCME Local 3299, which represent thousands of U.C. workers. We’ve already seen more than half the largess spent on a television ad campaign.

TOTAL 2023-24 FUNDRAISING, THRU JAN. 20

• ARREGUIN $637,387

• LYBARGER $484,303

• KALB $321,356

• SWANSON $186,850

• BECKLES $130,013

CASH RESERVES, THRU JAN. 20

• ARREGUIN $308,229

• LYBARGER $136,323

• KALB $134,322

• SWANSON $9,183

• BECKLES $8,619

—OUTLOOK—The chalk has Arreguin and Lybarger advancing to the November General Election. As we’ve already seen in just the last few days this race is yet another highly expensive Dem-on-Dem state legislative matchup.

—However, these types of races are often proxy wars for dueling special interests. But Arreguin and, especially Lybarger, are tight with labor. The difference, though, is Arreguin has cobbled together a coalition that includes building trades and real estate interests.

—This is a strong field and it wouldn’t be surprising if Kalb or Beckles sneak into the top two on March 5. These two battled it out in the 2018 assembly race won by Buffy Wicks. Beckles eeked out a narrow second-place finish over Kalb to advance that year.

—Kalb and Beckles are known quantities in Oakland and Richmond. Lybarger is completely unknown, despite all the cash at her disposal.

—The big question in this primary is whether Lybarger can successfully tell voters who she is before her opponents do it for her.

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