Brutal attack website against Oakland mayoral candidate Ignacio De La Fuente emerges with a vengeance
IE also posted attack website against Loren Taylor, Oakland and Hayward Previews
ELECTION 2022
Days until Election Day: 5.
Ballots returned: Alameda County —15%. Santa Clara County—20%.
OAKLAND MAYOR
—SHOTS FIRED—By far, the nastiest political attack in any race in the East Bay this election year emerged on Thursday, just five days until Election Day in Oakland’s increasingly contentious campaign for mayor.
—The website, Stop Ignacio, holds absolutely no punches. It labels De La Fuente corrupt, and falsely suggests he’s to blame for nearly 2,200 murders in Oakland over the past 20 years.
—Notably, the website goes after De La Fuente’s son, who was convicted of rape charges in the late 2000s. The site references 49,897 rapes in Oakland over the last two decades, “including four by his son.”
—“Alert!” the website continues. “Protect Oaklanders from CORRUPT politicians who put their own interests before the community. Stop a Serial Rapist from returning to Oakland to harm our families.”
—The vitriol in this political attack feels very personal, because it is. The attack website was paid for by an IE named “California Forward Now,” and funded by Mario Juarez, a former Oakland council candidate and member of the Alameda County Democratic Central Committee.
—Juarez’s dislike for De La Fuente has never been questioned. During the 2012 Oakland City Council race in District 5, I witnessed for myself the anger between Juarez and De La Fuente on the campaign trail. In one instance, I saw them shake hands, pull each other in close and whisper what was likely very unkind words. In the movies, the scene usually ends with someone getting shanked in the ribs.
—A second, although far more tame, attack website named “Taylor Fraud” was also released by Juarez’s IE on Thursday, in opposition of Oakland mayoral candidate Loren Taylor.
—Apparently, opposition research on Taylor is thin. The website uses Oakalnd Mayor Libby Schaaf’s endorsement of Taylor as a negative and a campaign contribution from alleged polluter, AB&I Foundry.
—The takeaway here is Sheng Thao’s campaign might be able to catch their breath while focus shifts from ethics allegations against her to the viciousness of these attack websites.
—Conversely, it probably indicates Thao’s campaign and supporters believe this race has significantly tightened to include De La Fuente, along with Taylor.
—LATE IE MOVES—Californians for Safer Streets, the well-funded IE supporting Oakland mayoral candidate Ignacio De La Fuente, may have made its big final move on Thursday. The IE, funded mostly with $550,000 from Jonathan Brooks, a financier with interest in Oakland’s coal terminal, reported $95,777 in spending on Thursday. The large outlay is roughly split between a mailer and phonebanking services.
OAKLAND MAYOR PREVIEW
—TAYLOR MADE?—At one point late last summer, there was nearly 20 prospective candidates for Oakland’s open mayoral seat. Only 10 finalized their candidacy. And then there were two (after today, maybe three?). At least we think.
—Most believe Oakland’s next mayor will either be Sheng Thao or Loren Taylor. The polls, both publicized and those rumored internal surveys, say the race is neck-and-neck. But that was a snapshot in time about two weeks ago when we now know few had cast a ballot and a Town version of an “October Surprise” was unleashed.
—The revelation last week by former Thao council aide LeAna Powell is damning. So damning that even if Thao becomes mayor, whether she indeed fired Powell because she didn’t want to work on the mayoral campaign is going to linger over the first few months of her administration. If Thao fails, despite exceptionally large financial backing from labor-backed IEs, the Powell allegations might not be the sole culprit.
—Going back to the start of this campaign, Oakland insiders, including myself, questioned whether Thao had the temprament to run a campaign for mayor. Especially, running as the early frontrunner. It’s sometimes more difficult to campaign from this position if you don’t have the advantage of being an incumbent.
—There may have been some early hubris going on in Thao’s campaign. It started when she punctuated her stump speech with a declaration she was the most experience candidate in the field. How could that be when Ignacio De La Fuente clearly has more experience than the rest of the field combined. For him, that’s a good and bad thing.
—The disastrous East Bay Times endorsement interview raised more questions. Why was she so glib? As progressive backed by unions, why did she even participate with their moderate-to-conservative editorial team of one? She even managed to undermine Oakland vital infrastructure bond, Measure U, during the interview.
—Meanwhile, Taylor’s campaign has laid low and made no unforced errors (except to come on the East Bay Insiders Podcast!). He’s the one person in this race that has visibly grown as a candidate. A few months ago, it was clear to me that Taylor was having difficulty connecting with audiences. As this race has gone on, he looks more confident in his own skin, his stump speech, and appears to be drawing people to him.
—But all of that doesn’t mean victory is a certainty. Money is still the coin of the realm and SEIU Local 1021 and other unions have spent $750,000 in support of Thao through IEs. That’s a lot of mail, some of which has not looked very compelling. But that money also goes to phonebanking, text messaging, and neighborhood canvassing. The three things that can clinch a close election.
—The big quetion here for Thao, and for some others in tight races in the East Bay, is timing. Did the unions’ efforts for Thao, beginning about a month ago when ballots were sent to voters, start too early? Was anybody paying attention until the past two weeks? If the answer is no, voters had better things to think about in early October, then this might hurt Thao. If these voters are watching now, all they are seeing is negative stories about Thao being investigated for doing some wrong. That’s the type of earned media that no campaign want to have, especially down the final stretch.
—But we can’t forget that ranked-choice voting is part of this equation. It’s been talked about at great length. Where do the runner-up’s second and third choices go? Ranked-choice voting is such an inexact science, but the veneer of an incumbency that Thao has cultivated from the start probably undermines her efforts.
—Among the expected top five candidates, probably none of them naturally align with Thao. Taylor’s campaign, meanwhile, appears more aligned with Reid, whom he partnered with two weeks ago. De La Fuente voters probably won’t knowingly support someone like Thao, who they may perceive as a OPD defunder, and we all know Seneca Scott and his legion of supporters will not back Thao. A better than expected showing by progressive Alyssa Victory, however, would presumably greatly aid Thao.
—But, when you start adding things up by the time the ranked-choice tabulations are done, the end result might not be the nail-biter we initially believed.
HAYWARD CITY COUNCIL PREVIEW
—RETURN TO THE CENTER—Over the past decade or more, the Hayward City Council appeared to backslide into irrelevance. Four years ago, Aisha Wahab joined the group and rattled the moribund council. They pushed back for awhile, a growing young progressive movement made meetings uncomfortable for some entrenched councilmembers, but the council as a whole eventually started to make a resurgence, especially on building much-needed housing.
—But Wahab will be gone. Either moving to the state senate or back to private life. Long-time Councilmember Sara Lamnin is also moving on. Lamnin will soon sit on the Hayward Area Recreational District board. That means the two available at-large seats during this election cycle will be filled by newcomers.
—Regardless of the outcome next week. It appears a zeal for approving new housing is hardwired in this council. But the next council is likely to pull back from other progressive leanings that Wahab brought to the city, such as police reform.
—Hayward’s council training ground has always been its planning commission. Commissioners Julie Roche and Dan Goldstein fit the bill and head toward Election Day as front runners. Real estate interests have larded Roche and Goldstein’s campaign coffers, but they have also been able to attract labor support at the same time.
—Keep in mind that Councilmember Mark Salinas will be the next mayor after running unopposed for the seat left open by retiring Hayward Mayor Barbara Halliday. His seat has two years remaining on it, and could be a consolation prize for someone in this field of candidates.
—George Syrop, a member of the progressive movement brewing in Hayward, is viewed as a contender for the top two. If elected, Syrop will likely fill the progressive hole on the council left open by Wahab’s departure. But if he finishes third or worse, there’s no consensus whether the next council would appoint him to Salinas’ seat. It’s hard to imagine a very pro-business council like Hayward might be next year willingly bringing a vocal progressive into the fold.
—On the flip side, if Roche or Goldstein finish outside the top two, most believe it is guaranteed they will receive the appointment next January.1
CAMPAIGN FINANCE DATA
—IE SPENDING—Below is Form 496 Independent Expenditure Reports from Wednesday through Thursday afternoon.
10TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—Families & Teachers United, sponsored by California Charter Schools Association Advocates (Supporting Mei), Total: $50,000—Phonebanking ($50,000), Consulting ($3,000).
OAKLAND
—Californians for Safer Streets Supporting Ignacio De La Fuente for Mayor of Oakland 2022 (Supporting De La Fuente for Mayor), Total: $95,777—Mailer ($52,810), Phonebanking ($39,967), Photography ($1,500, $1,500).
EBMUD BOARD OF DIRECTORS
—International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers - Local 21 TJ Anthony PAC Fund (Supporting Corina Lopez), Total: $4,000—Mailer ($4,000).