ELECTION 2024
Happy Election Day!
—STORYLINES—Alameda County is on the cusp of recalling two elected officials from office tonight. There is consensus that Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price and Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao will be recalled less than two years after taking office. Will it even be close? How will Price and Thao respond to the rebuke issued by countywide and Oakland voters? If Price is recalled, who makes their interest known for the Board of Supervisors’ appointment? Does former Alameda County District Attorney Nancy O’Malley make a bid for the job? If Thao is recalled, the cameras will shift to Loren Taylor, who has made it clear he intends to run in a mayoral special election sometime in early 2025.
—LOSE-WIN-LOSE PROPOSITION—Oakland City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas has some unique stakes before her tonight. Bas is in a hard-fought runoff in the Board of Supervisors District race against Emeryville Councilmember John Bauters. Bas is also looking at a lose, win, lose situation. If Bas loses to Bauters and Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao is recalled, then Bas become’s Oakland’s acting mayor through the end of the year, and possibly longer, if Bas retain the presidency of the city council. However, it’s a job with significant short-term challenges.
—END OF THE PROGRESSIVE ERA?—There’s a good chance that moderates and candidates backed by corporate special interests will be very successful in Alameda County on Election Night. It wouldn’t be surprising since independent expenditure committees backed by the likes of the California Apartment Association, Realtors, and Uber dominated some of the biggest March Primary contests in the East Bay, including Jesse Arreguín in the 7th State Senate District. This dynamic portends for a bad night for progressives in Oakland. The committees and funders behind the recalls of Price and Thao also have designs on Oakland City Council Districts 1, 3, 7, at-large, and the city attorney’s office.
—MAYOR’S OFFICE—Alameda County is guaranteed at least three new mayors. Berkeley, Dublin, and Union City will choose a new mayor for open seats. Pleasanton’s mayoral race between Mayor Karla Brown and Councilember Jack Balch is one to watch. Voters in Newark (Mayor Michael Hannon) and Livermore (Mayor John Marchand, unopposed) will decide whether to depart from the status quo.
—EBI PODCAST/PREDICTIONS—Listen to the Election 2024 Preview edition of the East Bay Insiders Podcast. Click below to see Steve, Shawn, and Dan’s predictions for every single race in Alameda County.
—FANTASY ISLAND—Alameda Councilmember Trish Herrera Spencer’s re-election was further flung into uncertainty last week after the release of police body-camera videos showing her drunk and disoriented at a city-paid League of California Cities Convention in Long Beach last month. Despite the horrendous incident, Spencer could still grab one of two at-large council seats among a five-candidate field. What happens if Spencer wins amid the controversy? If Spencer wins, but is later forced to resign, the third-place candidate would be elevated to the council, if the resignation occurs within the next six months. The Alameda City Council is scheduled on Wednesday to discuss a formal admonishment of Spencer for her behavior last month.
—FIGHT FOR FIVE—Chabot-Las Positas Community College District Trustee Luis Reynoso is seeking a victory ring on Tuesday night for every finger on one hand. Reynoso is running for re-election to his Area 1 seat on the community college board, in addition to four other seats—Hayward school board, Eden Health District, Hayward Area Recreation and Park District, and the Oro Loma Sanitary District.
—TAKING THE INITIATIVE—Here are a few of the big ballot measures to watch:
BERKELEY MEASURE GG: The natural gas tax measure has united some typically fractious groups to oppose the measure. Money has flowed to the “no” camp in large numbers. The measure would tax businesses with buildings 15,000 sq. ft or larger. Berkeley business icons such as Berkeley Bowl and Boichik Bagels oppose the measure.
DUBLIN MEASURE II: A stretch of road between Dublin and Livermore is one of the most contentious ballot measure squirmishes anywhere in Alameda County. Measure II would allow Dublin to control of areas connecting Dublin Boulevard to North Canyons Parkway, but a committee opposing the measure wants to keep it as open space.
OAKLAND MEASURE NN: The renewal of Measure Z, the parcel tax and parking tax approved by Oakland voters in 2014, is estimated to generate $47 million annually for public safety. In a city potentially staring at insolvency within the next six months, passage of Measure NN is crucial to the city’s short-term fiscal outlook.
FREMONT USD MEASURE M: The committee supporting Fremont’s whopping $919 million school bond measure has attracted large amounts of campaign contributions from construction and architecture firms from across the state.
ALBANY MEASURE V: If approved, Albany will join Oakland and Berkeley in allowing 16- and 17-years to vote in school board elections. It needs only a simple majority to pass.
—LIFE AFTER RECALL—If Price and Thao are recalled this week, they will join two other Alameda County elected officials removed from office this year. The Year of the Recall ensnared Sunol Glen school boardmembers Linda Hurley and Ryan Jergensen in July. Jergensen, though, is asking Sunol Glen’s 826 registered voters to reconsider their action tonight. Jergensen is running in a two-candidate race for a seat on the three-member school board.
—BLOWOUT CITY—There isn’t likely to be any surprises in the East Bay’s eight state legislative races. All five of the county’s assemblymembers are certain to win re-election tonight. The outlook for the three open state senate races is promising for Jesse Arreguín (7th District, including West Contra Costa County), Tim Grayson (9th District, including Contra Costa County), and Jerry McNerney (5th District, including San Joaquin County)
—EAST BAY CAUCUS—The same dynamic exists among Alameda County’s four congressional districts. Reps. Eric Swalwell, Ro Khanna, and Mark DeSaulnier will certainly posts huge victories tonight. The likely newcomer to the East Bay’s congressional caucus is BART Board Director Lateefah Simon, although fellow Democrat Jennifer Tran has made some noise recently. Keep an eye out to see if the spread between Simon and Tran appears smaller than expected. Nevertheless, Simon is a prohibitive favorite to succeed departing Rep. Barbara Lee in the 12th District.
—ROV SPOTLIGHT—Alameda County Registrar of Voters Tim Dupuis has several extenuating circumstances that could make running a smooth election more difficult. First off, a chronically understaffed office is likely to process between 650,000 to 700,000 vote-by-mail ballots in short order. Will the county’s ranked choice voting algorithm work properly? It didn’t two years ago and Dupuis certified the wrong winner in an Oakland school board race. Dupuis must also churn out vote cast records every time he updates the vote tally, rather than releasing it after the election is completed and certified. He’s planning to release a gigantic suite of locked PDFs that may be impossible to decipher. Lastly, youth voting is making its debut in Oakland and Berkeley school board races. Dupuis has no experience with the new voting software that allows 16- and 17-year-olds to vote.
—UP NEXT—The African American Sports and Entertainment Group (AASEG), the potential buyers of Oakland’s half of the Coliseum Complex, can opt-out of its deal with the city on Wednesday at 5 p.m. Questions about AASEG’s financial viability have grown amid missed payments and Oakland councilmembers complaining about Thao and the city administration leaving them in the dark about changes to the original deal.
—DON’T FORGET ABOUT THE FBI—Since the FBI raided the home of Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and the city’s recycling vendor, California Waste Solutions, on June 20, we still don’t know exactly what they’re looking for. Speculation is rampant. The investigation could be bigger than Oakland City Hall, and include the business trip to Vietnam paid by the Duongs, the owners of California Waste Solutions, and attended by Thao, Port of Oakland officials, and other local electeds. With the election over, the FBI could publicly shed light on their investigation as early as Wednesday.
CLOSING ARGUMENTS
—PRICE & KAMALA—Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price’s campaign attempted on Monday to draw parallels between the recall campaign against her and Republicans targeting Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. “The same people funding my recall are the same people spending millions to stop Kamala Harris from becoming the first female President,” according to an email sent to Price’s supporters. Price has long argued that billionaires and Republicans are behind the recall effort.
—SWALWELL LAWSUIT—Rep. Eric Swalwell made good on a promise to file a defamation suit against DA Pamela Price. Swalwell filed the suit in Alameda County Superior Court on Monday. After Swalwell announced his support of the recall last month, Price responded by asserting Swalwell was attempting cover up allegations of wrongdoing at the DA’s office by supporting her removal from office. Swalwell once served as an Alameda County prosecutor.
—HELLO, FPPC—Oaklanders Defending Democracy, the committee opposing the recall of Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao, posted videos on social media featuring uniformed Oakland police and fire personnel offering glowing public testimonials about Thao. Using uniformed public safety officers, and department logos in political campaigns is clearly verboten.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
—💰MONEYBALL—Form 497 large campaign contributions filed on Nov. 4:
CITIES
ALBANY
—Yes on 2024 Measure R, Controlled by Tiedemann & Jordan (Supporting biz license tax for rental assistance), Yes on 2024 Measure V, Controlled by Tiedemann & Jordan, $4,300. TOTAL: $4,300.
BERKELEY
—Berkeleyans for Effective Climate Action, No on GG (Opposing fossil fuel tax), TOTAL: $59,500.
—Berkeley Citizens for Safe Streets (Supports Measure FF parcel tax), . TOTAL: $25,000.
—Berkeleyans for Better Planning (Supports Measure EE parcel tax), . TOTAL: $2,631.
EMERYVILLE
—Sukhdeep Kaur (Emeryville City Council), Deborah Cohen, $2,180; Nasser Azimi, $1,500. $TOTAL: $3,680.
—Courtney Welch (Emeryville City Council), Jesse Pollak, $5,000; Nasser Azimi, $1,500. $TOTAL: $6,500.
FREMONT
—Preserving Agriculture in Alameda County by Supporting Salwan and Opposing Bacon for Mayor 2024 (Supporting Salwan), Golden State PAC, $85,000. TOTAL: $85,000.
HAYWARD
—Ray Bonilla, Jr. (Hayward City Council), Yolanda Arango of Oakland, $1,700. TOTAL: $1,700.
SAN LEANDRO
—Ed Hernández (San Leandro City Council-District 2), David Irmer of Sausalito, $1,000. TOTAL: $1,000.
UNION CITY
—Union City Residents For Financial Stability, Yes On Measure QQ (Supporting biz tax), ACFFA Ballot Issues PAC, $7,500. TOTAL: $7,500.
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE SENATE
—Jesse Arreguin (7th Senate District), Buckeye Properties; Lyn Konheim, $1,500. TOTAL: $1,500.
—Tim Grayson (9th Senate District), California State Association of Electrical Workers, $7,500. TOTAL: $7,500.
—Jerry McNerney (5th Senate District), California State Association of Electrical Workers, $5,000. TOTAL: $5,000.
STATE ASSEMBLY
—Buffy Wicks (14th Assembly District), California Business Properties Association PAC, $5,500; DaVita Inc. Including Aggregated Contributions, $5,500. TOTAL: $11,000.
—Alex Lee (24th Assembly District), SEIU Local 1021 Candidate PAC, $5,000. TOTAL: $5,000.
—🧾EXPENDITURES—Form 496 Independent Expenditure Reports filed on Nov. 4.
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE SENATE
—Tim Grayson (9th Senate District), American Property Casualty Insurance Association of America California PAC. SUPPORT (Text messaging—$11,043). TOTAL: $11,043.
