Election night surprises
Supervisor Miley heading toward victory; Bas tops tightly-packed field in supervisorial race; Arreguin leads state Senate race over Kalb; Simon dominates in CA12; End of the line for BLee
ELECTION 2024
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BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
Board of Supervisors - 4th District (East Oakland-Castro Valley-Pleasanton)
—District 4 Supervisor Nate Miley appears likely to win a seventh term on the Alameda County Board of Supervisors. Miley has a big early lead over Jennifer Esteen, late Tuesday night. A Miley victory could lock in a pro-housing provider majority on the board.
*Nate Miley 8,359 62.4%
Jennifer Esteen 5,039 37.6%
Board of Supervisors - 5th District (Berkeley-Oakland-Emeryville-Albany)
—Despite concerns about public safety, District 5 voters placed Oakland Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas atop a tight field of candidates.
—Bas’ lead incrementally increased on Tuesday night. Emeryville Councilmember John Bauters and Berkeley Councilmember Ben Bartlett are in a fight for second place and a spot in the November runoff.
Nikki Fortunato Bas 4,942 28.2%
John Bauters 3,417 19.5%
Ben Bartlett 3,211 18.3%
Chris Moore 1,972 11.3%
Ken Berrick 1,524 8.7%
Board of Education - Area 5
—Alameda County Board of Education incumbent Janevette Cole, the charter school candidate is headed to victory on Tuesday with a majority of the vote. Lupe Angulo, the public school candidate, is second in this winner-take-all contest with a small lead over embattled Hayward school boardmember Joe Ramos.
*Janevette Cole 3,810 51.4%
Lupe Angulo 1,909 25.7%
Joe Ramos 1,698 22.9%
Superior Court Judge - Office #12
—Mark Fickes’ second bid for the Alameda County Superior Court appears likely. The Alameda County Democratic Party-endorsed candidate leads Michael Johnson by 14 points. The winner succeeds Superior Court Judge Evelio Grillo on the county bench.
Mark Fickes 33,343 57.0%
Michael Johnson 25,310 43.0%
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STATE SENATE
7th District (Berkeley-Richmond-Oakland-Alameda)
—In one of the most expensive legislative races in the state, Berkeley Mayor Jesse Arreguin is headed to a primary victory and a place in the November election.
—Labor leader Kathryn Lybarger sits in a disappointing fifth place, as of late Tuesday night. This comes despite millions in support from labor.
—The early results strongly suggests Lybarger’s campaign was tortured by a seemingly unending stream of negative TV ads and mailers from independent expenditure committees.
—Oakland Councilmember Dan Kalb leads a close race for the second spot in the November election over AC Transit Board Director Jovanka Beckles, and Alameda County Republican Party Chair Jeanne Solnordal.
—There’s some deja vu here. Kalb and Beckles battled for second place in the 2018 15th Assembly District primary won by Buffy Wicks. Beckles narrowly advanced in that race over Kalb.
Jesse Arreguin-D 16,643 31.9%
Dan Kalb-D 9,016 17.3%
Jovanka Beckles-D 6,920 13.3%
Jeanne Solnordal-R 6,867 13.2%
Kathryn Lybarger-D 6,844 13.1%
Sandre Swanson-D 5,870 11.3%
5th District (San Joaquin County-Livermore-Dublin-Pleasanton-Sunol)
—Jim Shoemaker, the Republican in this race whose partial ballot designation is “trucker,” holds a strong lead in the Tri-Valley and San Joaquin County state senate race.
—Former Rep. Jerry McNerney leads fellow Democrat Carlos Villapudua, a San Joaquin assemblymember, for second.
—Like the neighboring 7th District race, this primary was one of the most expensive in the state. Big spending by IEs may have have inadvertently tamped down the Democrats’ performance in the favor of Shoemaker. But the IE attacks appear to have harmed Villapudua more.
Jim Shoemaker-R 25,729 41.7%
Jerry McNerney-D 20,591 33.4%
Carlos Villapudua-D 15,327 24.9%
9th District (Contra Costa County-San Leandro-Castro Valley-San Lorenzo)
—Contra Costa County Assemblymember Tim Grayson has a commanding lead over San Ramon Councilmember Marisol Rubio.
—However, both Democrats will advance to November with Grayson holding a nearly 20-point advantage.
—This is problematic for Rubio. Grayson also holds a gigantic fundraising advantage and well-financed support from IEs in his favor.
Tim Grayson-D 50,720 64.2%
Marisol Rubio-D 28,338 35.8%
ASSEMBLY
—Assemblymember Buffy Wicks has a commanding lead in the 14th District with 74 percent of the vote. Wicks is likely to face Margot Smith in November.
—A rematch of a rematch in the 16th District is assured. Democratic Assemblymember Rebecca Bauer-Kahan leads Republican Joe Rubay by nearly 30 points. RBK and Rubay faced off two years ago.
—Assemblymember Mia Bonta dominated the field in the 18th District that includes two Republicans. Bonta currently has 78 percent of the vote. Her opponent in November is up in the air on Tuesday night. Mindy Pechenuk, Cheyenne Kenney, and Andre Sandford are separated by around one percent.
—Twentieth District Assemblymember Liz Ortega will advance to November against write-in candidate Sangeetha Shanbhogue, a Republican. In the 24th District, Assemblymember Alex Lee will again face Republican Bob Brunton in November.
CONGRESS
12th District (Oakland-Berkeley-Alameda-San Leandro)
—The Barbara Lee era in East Bay politics is over, and the beginning of the Lateefah Simon era is near in the 12th Congressional District.
—Simon, Lee’s heir apparent, received 42 percent of the primary vote on Tuesday night to advance to the top two November General Election.
—Her opponent will either be Jennifer Tran or Tony Daysog, an Alameda councilmember.
Lateefah Simon-D 13,537 42.7%
Jennifer Tran-D 5,450 17.2%
Tony Daysog-D 4,793 15.1%
—East Bay incumbents Reps. Eric Swalwell, Ro Khanna, and Mark DeSaulnier also cruised to primary victories. Each are likely to face a Republican in November.
10th District (Concord-Brentwood-Walnut Creek-San Ramon-Dublin)
*Mark DeSaulnier-D, 61,537 66.7%
Katherine Piccinini-R 17,173 18.6%
Nolan Chen-R 9,584 10.4%
14th District (Tri-Valley-Hayward-Tri-Cities)
*Eric Swalwell-D 19,868 63.4%
Vin Kruttiventi-R 5,741 18.3%
Alison Hayden-R 3,369 10.8%
Luis Reynoso-R 2,340 7.5%
17th District (Fremont-Milpitas-San Jose-Santa Clara)
*Ro Khanna-D 31,993 60.7%
Anita Chen-R 15,392 29.2%
Ritesh Tandon-D 2,318 4.4%
U.S. SENATE
—Adam Schiff is not only on his way to winning the full-term U.S. Senate primary, but also victory in the fall after drawing Republican Steve Garvey.
—The East Bay’s Barbara Lee is in a dismal fourth place at 7.4 percent, a mark that matches recent polling.
—Further disheartening for Lee, she currently holds just 22 percent of the vote in her hometown Alameda County, a margin well below Schiff’s 33 percent.
—Lee, however, did not concede the race on Tuesday night, saying, “Part of the process is allowing the time for every ballot cast—every voice—to be counted.”
—Nonetheless, it’s over. Next year, Oakland area voters will not be represented by someone named Barbara Lee for the first time since 1990 when she was first elected to the state assembly.
Adam Schiff-D 1,210,133 33.9%
Steve Garvey-R 1,127,592 31.6%
Katie Porter-D 500,784 14.0%
Barbara Lee-D 264,256 7.4%
BALLOT MEASURES
—Measure B, the countywide charter amendment to align its recall provisions with the state, appears headed to victory, while all six city and school district revenue-generating ballot measures are currently passing.
—However, Alameda and San Leandro school bond measures are just a few percentage points above water, as of late Tuesday night.
Alameda County
MEASURE A—Charter amendment related to lowering county job posting requirements to 14 calendar days. (50+1% to pass).
YES 38,683 56.6%
NO 29,696 43.4%
MEASURE B—Charter amendment related to conforming recall provisions with state law. (50+1% to pass).
YES 42,346 62.3%
NO 25,583 37.7%
Alameda USD
MEASURE E—Parcel tax levying $0.585 per building sq. ft. area, capped at $15,998 per parcel; $598 per unimproved parcel. (2/3rds to pass)
YES 4,237 69.9%
NO 1,829 30.1%
Albany USD
MEASURE G—Parcel tax renewal levying. $0.55 per sq. ft. building area. (2/3rds to pass).
YES 1,139 76.5%
NO 349 23.5%
Berkeley USD
MEASURE H—Eight-year parcel tax levying. $0.54 per sq. ft. building area. (2/3rds to pass).
YES 5,628 84.7%
NO 1,018 15.3%
Hayward USD
MEASURE I—$550 million infrastructure improvement bond. (55% to pass).
YES 3,817 63.3%
NO 2,218 36.7%
Oakland
MEASURE D—Ballot measure to raise Oakland’s appropriation limit, the amount the state allows cities to spend, for Fiscal Years 2024-25 through 2027-28.
YES 11,960 70.5%
NO 4,993 29.5%
Piedmont
MEASURE F—Renews existing parcel tax for 12 years. Single-family parcel to pay between $743 and $1,254 annually; Commercial parcels to pay between $1,254 and $1,882 annually, or $515 per multi-family dwelling unit. (2/3rds to pass).
YES 1,010 72.5%
NO 384 27.5%
San Leandro USD
MEASURE J—$174 million infrastructure improvement bond. (55% to pass).
YES 1,449 59.5%
NO 981 40.5%
