Game planning the Price recall

What if DA Price sues? Does the Thao recall have legs? Libby Schaaf seeks a return to elected office, influential San Leandro non-profit leader is retiring. Plus, campaign finance data.

RECALLS

PAMELA PRICE

—CRYSTAL BALL—We’re coming up on the moment when the group seeking the recall of DA Pamela Price may show their hand and provide the county registrar’s office with signed petitions. Perhaps in few weeks.

—Save Alameda For Everyone (SAFE), the committee leading the recall, has until March 5 to deliver at least 73,195 valid signatures to the county registrar for the recall question to qualify for a special election sometime this spring.

—So how might this all go down?

—Let’s assume SAFE easily clears the number of raw signatures. They have said the number is as high as 100,000, but those numbers haven’t been updated for some time. SAFE has been quiet lately.

—It’s important to note the $125,000 infusion of cash that SAFE received was distributed in small tranches since just before Thanksgiving, according to finance reports filed this week. Based only on publicly reported finance reports, nearly $1 million has been raised for the Price recall.

—There are some who believe SAFE could reach 120,000 signatures. That’s an enormous amount that assuredly contains more than enough valid signatures to move the recall forward. But, let’s say they don’t and the county registrar determines SAFE does not have enough valid signatures.

—Alameda County’s Charter provides recall campaigns with a second chance. Under the charter, SAFE would have 10 additional days over the March 5 deadline to collect additional valid signatures.

—But what might happen next if the Price recall qualifies? This is where things could go sideways for everyone.

—There is a belief that Price, or another group, will file lawsuits to stop a special election. The issue being that Alameda County is currently stuck in a no-man’s land when it comes to the county charter provisions for recalls.

—A countywide charter amendment will appear on the March Primary ballot asking voters to align the county’s recall provisions with the state’s rules.

—SAFE, though, is operating under the current county charter, which includes the extra 10-day provision. If the charter amendment is approved by voters, among the changes, is a provision that increases the number of valid signatures required. For SAFE, it adds roughly 20,000 additional valid signatures.

—The thinking is Price would seek to hinder or block the ability of the Alameda County Board of Supervisors to formally set a special election date. Under the current timeline, a special election could occur in late April or May.

—If Price is unable to stop a special election, the next best scenario is to drag the process out in the courts. Perhaps in an effort to line up the recall election with the November 2024 Presidential General Election.

—That’s because pushing it out until November significantly increases Price’s chances of defeating the recall.

—A potential Biden/Trump matchup is bound to energize Alameda County progressives to vote in droves. Voter turnout could be in the range of 75 percent or higher in November. Those same voters probably vote against a recall.

—There’s one other variable we’re missing. Alameda County Registrar of Voter Tim Dupuis will be juggling a March Primary, a signature validation process for the Price recall, while also looking ahead to the November election. Based on prior performance, the registrar could somehow become an factor.

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