March Primary Winners and Losers
Winners: Corporate IEs, Nikki Bas, Nate Miley, Mainstream Dems, Ballot measures. Losers: Kathryn Lybarger, Pamela Price's slate, Barbara Lee, Renters in unincorporated ALCO; Villapudua family
ELECTION 2024
237 days to Election Day
—WINNERS/LOSERS—For the most part, Election Day in the East Bay has revealed its winners and losers. All the first-place winners have had their celebrations and are preparing for the November General Election. Below is a list of November matchups for Alameda County supervisor, state senate and assembly, and congress.
—Three pivotal races for the second spot in November are still too close to call, as of Tuesday night. Winners of dozens of inherently tight central committee seats will have to wait a few more days before declaring the victors.
—Final turnout in Alameda County is likely to be very low, as you will read below, and especially dismal as compared to the 2020 Presidential March Primary, which saw 51 percent voter turnout.
WINNERS
Special interest IEs: Independent Expenditure Committees backed by Uber and, especially, the California Apartment Association, paved the way to two of the biggest wins on the ballot in Alameda County. Corporate-backed IEs don’t usually find success in these parts, but they cleaned up without much pushback by their natural opponents, labor-backed IEs. When Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley’s re-election seemed to be foundering, landlords swooped in with big money IEs. When Jesse Arreguin’s state Senate was looking for a punchout, or, at least help with paving a way to an easier November opponent, IEs backed by Uber and landlords were there to help.
Nikki Fortunato Bas: Despite public safety being a big issue in Oakland, Bas posted an impressive late surge in notching a strong first-place finish in the Alameda County District 5 supervisorial race. At a time when Oakland progressives are taking it on the chin (DA Pamela Price and Mayor Sheng Thao recalls), Bas’ big win raised their hopes, at least, for now. Bas’ victory, however, was aided, in part, by her opponent’s reluctance to link diminished public safety to her tenure in Oakland. You can bet the same reluctance will not occur in the November runoff against, most likely, Emeryville Councilmember John Bauters.
Nate Miley: Never count out Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley. One of the last old-school politicians left in the East Bay, he showed his skills have not diminished after posting a blowout victory against Jennifer Esteen, one of the strongest challengers he’s faced in more than two decades on the board. Landlords came out strong for Miley, but don’t forget SEIU Local 1021. They also came through. Miley smartly earned their support last spring when he was the only supervisor to vote for the SEIU-backed candidate for the appointment to the late Supervisor Richard Valle’s seat. This may be Miley’s last campaign. Will he groom a successor over the next four years? Will Esteen try again in 2028?
—Revenue-generating ballot measures: Voters gripe all the time about parcel taxes, bond measures and tax increases, but when Election Day comes, East Bay voters have no problem opening their checkbooks. Alameda, Albany, Berkeley, and Piedmont approved parcel tax measures last week. Hayward ($550 million) and San Leandro ($174 million) voters approved infrastructure improvement bonds for schools. Revenue-generating ballot measures are already in the pipeline for the November ballot in many Alameda County cities, pending a downturn in the economy.
Mainstream Democrats: The Alameda County Democratic Central Committee’s noticeable shift to the far-left over the past two years alarmed a number of mainstream Dems—many of them current elected officials—and it resulted in a concerted effort to reign in the local party. Although many of the 40 countywide central committee seats are too close to call, it’s clear that slates that included mainstream Dems did extremely well. For example, in the 18th Assembly District race, eight of the 10 current leaders are mainstream Dems. In the 20th Assembly District race, 6 of the 7 current leaders are mainstream Dems. If the results hold, these new members will not be sworn-in until next January.
LOSERS
Kathryn Lybarger: What a disaster! AFSCME Local 3299, a union that was a big player in two 2022 East Bay assembly races, fell flat on its face this time around. The union spent more than $2 million to help Kathryn Lybarger finish fourth in the 7th State Senate District primary. There was no there there with Lybarger, a virtual unknown in East Bay politics. The campaign was outclassed by Jesse Arreguin, and IEs offered a master class in negative campaigning that bordered on character assassination. Incredibly, neither Lybarger or union IEs had any answer to the constant attacks.
Pamela Price’s slate: It turned out Pamela Price’s People Powered Progressives slate for the Alameda County Democratic Central Committee was not powered by many voters. The slate suffered a drubbing in March Primary, strongly suggested Alameda County Democrats identified some of the slate’s members as the reason for the chaos seen over the past two years at Alameda County Democratic Central Committee meetings. Just six, possibly seven, of the People Powered Progressives’ 28 slate members are headed toward victory. Price, herself, will win re-election to a seat on central committee, but her roughly five percent of the vote is down from 7.5 percent in 2020.
Barbara Lee: She was ultimately a non-factor in the U.S. Senate primary. It was not an ending befitting a distinguished member of Congress and true East Bay political legend. Lee’s campaign suffered from a lack of funding and an energizing message to voters, especially younger progressives. The pitch was basically California deserves a black woman in the seat, and, ‘Oh, by the way, I’m a black woman.’” Lee will serve out her term in Congress this year, but her future in politics is unknown. A job in the Biden administration could be an option, if the president wins re-election. Maybe there’s an opening at the Oakland mayor’s office sometime this year?
Renters in unincorporated Alameda County: Renters protections, in particular, just cause, is either dead in unincorporated Alameda County or on the verge of being seriously watered down. Jennifer Esteen’s defeat in the Board of Supervisors District 4 race represented the second straight loss for tenant advocates. Supervisor Lena Tam’s win over Rebecca Kaplan in 2022 locked down a slim 3-2 majority for landlord interests. Just cause is still on the table, but tenants lost any leverage they had with last week’s result and now lack the votes on the board to get it done, at least, for another two years or longer.
Villapudua family: Talk about hubris! The Villapuduas—Carlos and his wife Edith—used San Joaquin County and the Tri-Valley, the 5th State Senate District’s newest areas, as their own personal plaything and voters punished them for their political opportunism. Edith waged a campaign for the State Senate, while Carlos ran for re-election to the assembly. They switched places at the last minute on the belief the move would benefit each other. That’s not how politics works in the East Bay. Both lost in a decisive manner last week.
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VOTER TURNOUT
—TUESDAY UPDATE—Alameda and Contra Costa Counties did not post an election results update on Tuesday. Both are scheduled to provide new totals today.
—Alameda County reported 95,238 ballots yet to be counted. This means that Alameda County’s voter turnout will be a paltry 31 percent.
—Contra Costa County, which includes a chunk of the 7th State Senate District and the nailbiter for second place, has 44,100 unprocessed ballots, as of its last update on Friday.
STATE SENATE
7th District (Berkeley-Richmond-Oakland-Alameda)
Jesse Arreguin-D 41,203 33.0% (0)
Jovanka Beckles-D 19,691 15.8% (+1.0)
Dan Kalb-D 19,481 15.6% (-0.5)
Kathryn Lybarger-D 17,714 14.2% (+0.2)
Sandre Swanson-D 14,598 11.7% (+0.5)
Jeanne Solnordal-R 12,263 9.8% (-1.1)
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
Board of Supervisors - 5th District (Berkeley-Oakland-Emeryville-Albany)
Nikki Fortunato Bas 15,405 31.4 (+1.8)
John Bauters 10,219 20.9% (-0.9)
Ben Bartlett 8,410 17.2% (-0.4)
Chris Moore 4,926 10.1% (-0.5)
Ken Berrick 4,858 9.9% (+0.4)
Lorrel Plimier 2,109 4.3% (-0.4)
Greg Hodge 2,031 4.2% (+0.1)
Omar Farmer 819 1.7% (-0.1)
Gerald Pechenuk 215 0.4% (-0.1
—Here’s the November matchups with three races for second place too close to call, as of Tuesday:
Alameda County Supervisors - District 5: Nikki Fortunato Bas vs. John Bauters/Ben Bartlett **Too close to call**
State Senate - District 7 - Jesse Arreguin (D) vs. Jovanka Beckles (D)/Dan Kalb (D) **Too close to call**
State Senate - District 5 - Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Jim Shoemaker (R)
State Senate - District 9 - Tim Grayson (D) vs. Marisol Rubio (D)
Assembly - District 14 - Buffy Wicks (D) vs. Margot Smith (D)
Assembly - District 16 - Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (D) vs. Joe Rubay (R)
Assembly - District 18 - Mia Bonta (D) vs. Mindy Pechenuk (R)/Andre Sandford (AI)/Cheyenne Kenney (R) **Too close to call**
Assembly - District 20 - Liz Ortega (D) vs. Sangeetha Shanbhogue (R)
Assembly - District 24 - Alex Lee (D) vs. Bob Brunton (R)
Congress - District 10 - Mark DeSaulnier (D) vs. Katherine Piccinini (R)
Congress - District 12 - Lateefah Simon (D) vs. Jennifer Tran (D)
Congress - District 14 - Eric Swalwell (D) vs. Vin Kruttiventi (R)
Congress - District 17 - Ro Khanna (D) vs. Anita Chen (R)
