Numbers game

DOUBLE ISSUE: Support for DA Price isn't bad in Oakland, but not enough to avoid recall. Campaign finance report analysis for Board of Supervisors District 5, recall campaigns, and Legislative races

ELECTION 2024

95 days to Election Day

PRICE RECALL

—MORE BAD NEWS—In order to stave off recall from office this fall, Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price needs to gain significant support in her progressive strongholds of Oakland and Berkeley.

—According to a new poll, Oakland may not provide the needed spark for Price’s campaign.

—The numbers in Oakland are somewhat better than expected for the embattled district attorney, but nowhere near strong enough from a countywide perspective.

• 41% of Oaklanders would vote to keep Price in office, with 21% expressing strong support.

• 37% of Oaklanders would vote to recall Price, with 28% voicing strong opposition.

• 22% are undecided.

—If Price can’t marshal support above a simple majority in Oakland, she could be heading toward a drubbing at the ballot box this November.

—Most believe voters in suburban east and south county will overwhelmingly support recalling Price.

—Some political consultants believe undecided voters will eventually lean toward recalling Price, while those who support Price based on general opposition to recalls will probably not cast a ballot.

—However, voter turnout in the presidential election is likely to top 80 percent in Alameda County, so there will be few holdouts.

—But the polling results are a mixed bag for Price. Nearly half of Oakland voters disapprove of Price’s job performance.

• 47% disapprove of Price’s job performance, while 31% strongly support this assertion.

• 52% of Black voters in Oakland disapprove of Price’s job performance, the highest number among racial demographics.

—Price is well-known in Oakland, but also polarizing, according to the poll:

• 32% view Price favorably

• 41% view Price unfavorably

• 27% had no opinion, including 8% who had never heard of Price.

—READ THE FULL POLL HERE

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MORE INSIDE:

• ELECTION 2024: Finance reports for all the recall campaigns

• Alameda County District 5 supervisor finance report analysis

• Keep an eye out for the Bauters IE, plus background on its funders

• Internal poll shows Bas/Bauters in a statistical tie

• Campaign finance capsules for state Legislative races

• Who pulled papers on Thursday?