Primary Night Guide
The storylines to watch on Election Night; The Price recall timeline; Two complaints filed by March Primary candidates
ELECTION 2024
—STORYLINES—Turnout is going to be a factor in every election analysis you will read this morning. As of Monday, voter turnout in Alameda County is 13 percent. While turnout may ultimately be lower than four years ago (51 percent in the March 2020 Primary), there’s still a large number of ballots out there, hopefully meaning people are just now paying attention. Therefore, more weight should be given to each campaign’s moves over the past two weeks.
—The other big factor is the issue of public safety. Crime is indeed a big concern in the East Bay. Does it translate to the ballot box? The submission of 123,387 recall signatures on Monday suggests the answer is yes.
—Here’s what I’ll be watching after the polls close at 8 p.m. tonight:
ALAMEDA COUNTY
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS - DISTRICT 4
—There’s tepid consensus that Supervisor Nate Miley wins re-election, with the margin of victory ranging from a nail-biter to a 20-point win. There was a big late push by Miley’s campaign and independent expenditure committees backed by housing providers. It was a sign that Jennifer Esteen’s insurgent campaign was nipping at Miley’s heels. The “defund the police” tag was placed on Esteen through several mailers. A late-arriving push for Esteen by Oakland A’s fan groups who believe Miley is hindering plans at the Coliseum could have legs if this race is tight. These groups have a very loyal following on social media and their advocacy for Esteen should not be taken lightly.
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS - DISTRICT 5
—During my 15 years on the East Bay beat, rarely has there been a more difficult races to handicap than this primary to replace retiring Supervisor Keith Carson. None of these candidates are expected to reach the 50 percent-plus one to win the seat outright in March. I spoke with 10 insiders and got six different top two predictions. Among those mentioned are the four B’s—John Bauters, Nikki Fortunato Bas, Ben Bartlett, Ken Berrick—and Chris Moore. There is some growing concerns about the strength of Bauters’ campaign, although he is mentioned more often than not as finishing in the top two. Ben Bartlett has run a quiet campaign. He’s the most well-known candidate in the Berkeley portion of the district. In 2022, I discounted the potency of Lena Tam’s supervisorial campaign and Yesenia Sanchez’s bid for sheriff. Both were informed by noted political consultant Doug Linney, who is also behind Bartlett’s campaign. The fates of Bas and Moore, a political newcomer, could be linked. Bas has opened a spigot of fundraising over the past three weeks. She’s the definitive “defund the police” candidate. Moore is not, and his performance will hinge on whether voters are linking public safety fears to specific candidates. Berrick’s fate is also tied to the Bas/Moore dynamic. Berrick needs a poor performance from Moore to have any chance to break into a runoff. I wouldn’t be surprised if the top two spots are unknown for a several days.
STATE SENATE
7TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—Berkeley Mayor Jesse Arreguin is the consensus winner in the primary. At worst, he’s second. If so, the spread between him and second place will be important, especially if the second candidate in the top two primary is labor leader Kathryn Lybarger. That’s because she’s the only candidate in the field that can match Arreguin’s fundraising and well-financed IEs. How much damage was inflicted by the barrage of negative mailers sent by IEs against Lybarger? It’s difficult to imagine unions spending more than $2 million on a candidate, as they did with Lybarger, and not advancing to November. Did the same IE mailers in favor of Jovanka Beckles succeed in boosting her into the top two?
5TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—The race for the Tri-Valley/San Joaquin County seat may be destined to be one of the nastiest in the state. A controversy erupted over the weekend involving yet another one of candidate Carlos Villapudua’s family. I haven’t been able to verify it yet. But how many Villapuduas serve in San Joaquin County government?! This race is likely to produce a Dem-on-Dem rematch in November. Villapudua is well-known in San Joaquin County, but less so in the Tri-Valley. Jerry McNerney once served parts of Tri-Valley during his time in Congress. The spread between the Villapudua and McNerney will be important. Don’t be surprised if this race is one of the most expensive in the state when it’s all said and done.
9TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—Tim Grayson is expected to win the primary over Marisol Rubio in a two-candidate race. But Grayson’s spending and IE activity in favor of him and opposing Rubio says two possible things: Grayson’s polling shows the potential margin of victory in March is not optimal. Grayson’s messaging on mailers, television ads, and literature don’t appear to have a cohesive theme, suggesting Rubio’s candidacy poses them potential problems. As East Bay Insiders Podcast co-host Shawn Wilson said recently, it seems like Grayson’s campaign is throwing every idea against the wall to see if anything sticks to Rubio. Margin of victory is important here. If Rubio keeps it tight, reinforcements will come to her campaign’s aid in November.
CONGRESS
12TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
—There’s no bigger lock on the March Primary ballot than Lateefah Simon winning by a mile on Election Night. A clear majority of the vote is likely. But who will be second? There’s nine candidates in this race—seven Democrats and two Republicans. If there was just one Republican in this field, that candidate would likely finish second by way of a weak field cannibalizing itself, while the conservative gobbled up most GOP voters. However, that number starts at around five percent in this super deep blue district. Only Alameda Councilmember Tony Daysog, Jennifer Tran, and to some extent, Abdul Sikdur has run a campaign. Whoever advances with Simon to November will be severely outfunded. This contest has weirdly been less about the race and more like an anointing of Simon as Barbara Lee’s successor.
14TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
—Rep. Eric Swalwell will have no problem winning the primary and the general in November. But some interesting issues could arise from the primary’s result. For several election cycles, Swalwell’s overheated rhetoric on cable news has attracted him a large number of primary opponents. As a result his share of the vote has been volatile. The question is whether this is less about the number of opponents or a slow-growing dissatisfaction in his district. Swalwell won 63.64 percent of the primary vote in 2022 with five opponents, and 58.77 percent in 2020 with six challengers. In the grand scheme of things it doesn’t matter in November where Swalwell routinely wins just over 70 percent of the vote. But this primary features a Republican opponent that has spent much more than all the candidates combined that Swalwell has faced since 2014. Swalwell is facing three Republicans this time around, including the wealthy Vin Kruttiventi. In addition, Chabot-Las Positas Community College Trustee Luis Reynoso is a proven name in Hayward’s Latino community. The combination of money and name I.D. could further erode Swalwell’s primary tally, raising questions if the Beltway resident is starting to lose touch with his district.
U.S. SENATE
—It appears certain this is the end of the line for Barbara Lee, one of the East Bay’s most legendary politicians. Lee’s inability to raise money and spread her message is likely to be the bottom-line explanation for why she struggled in his primary. What is next for Lee? She’s been angling for a position in a Democratic administration for at least the last decade. Ambassador to Cuba has always been a desire. But how about this from a friend who labeled the idea a “fever dream”: Lee for Oakland mayor if Sheng Thao is ultimately recalled. Oakland has reached out to its elder statesman before in times of crisis—Ron Dellums (it didn’t work). and Jerry Brown (it worked).
—VOTER TURNOUT—
Santa Clara County 157,836 returned—15%
Contra Costa County 105,457—15%
San Joaquin County 53,407—15%
Alameda County 118,257—13%
CALIFORNIA 3,164,924—14%
PRICE RECALL
—VERIFICATION STEP—The recall of Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price took a significant step. Save Alameda For Everyone (SAFE) submitted 123,387 signatures to the Alameda County Registrar of Voters on Monday morning.
—The minimum number of valid signatures needed to qualify the recall question for a special election is 73,195.
—The large cushion of signatures means SAFE needs roughly 60 percent of their haul to be deemed valid by the registrar, a relatively low hurdle to jump over.
—So, what’s next? The registrar’s office has 10 days to verify the 10 boxes of signatures.
—The job is even more daunting since the registrar’s office will also administer today’s March Primary election, count votes, and certify the election over the next month, all the while preparing for a Berkeley City Council special election set for April 16.
—If the recall signatures are successfully verified by March 14, the next step is for the Alameda County Board of Supervisors to approve a resolution calling for a special election. The earliest regularly scheduled board meeting is March 26.
—SAFE believes a special election could held as early as April 30.
—While a recall election is likely, there’s quite a few wildcards out there that could scuttle SAFE’s timeline. Among them the potential for Price or another group to tie up the recall in the courts.
DEMOCRATIC CENTRAL COMMITTEE
—MORE PRICE PROBLEMS—Mario Juarez, the mastermind behind last weekend’s negative text messaging campaign against Loren Taylor’s slate for the Alameda County Democratic Central Committee in the 18th District, is going after another detractor.
—Juarez said he filed a complaint with the State Bar of California on Monday against Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price.
—The allegation asserts that Price “used her office to file criminal charges against me because I am actively running for political office against her. This is a conflict of interest. This is an abuse of her office powers,” according to the complaint
—Both Juarez and Price are candidates in today’s March Primary for the Alameda County Democratic Central Committee in the 18th District.
—Last month, Price’s office charged Juarez in a matter that included allegations that he did not pay a direct mail company for negative mailers sent in the 2022 election.
—The political attack mailers also included a website that called Price a “loser.”
—“The complaint is one of many against Pamela Price and it shows a pattern of an out-of-control district attorney who has made more damage to law and order than the perpetrators that are her closest allies,” Juarez said.
9TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT/20TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—COURTING WRITE-IN VOTES—Republican Joe Grcar qualified two weeks ago as an official write-in candidate in the 9th State Senate District that includes San Leandro, unincorporated areas of Alameda County, and Contra Costa County.
—But Grcar also sought to be a write-in candidate in the 20th Assembly District, but was rejected by Secretary of State Shirley Weber because he had filed for more than one office.
—This led Grcar to file a complaint in Sacramento Superior Court on Feb. 29 for a writ of mandate to force Weber to certify his write-in candidacy in the 20th Assembly District, stay the certification of the top two primary result, and instruct the Alameda County Registrar’s Office to count and preserve any write-in votes.
—Grcar is not likely to advance to the top two November election in the 9th State Senate District race. His chances are much better in the 20th District where the only candidate is Democratic Assemblymember Liz Ortega, along with Republican write-in candidate Sangeetha Shanbhogue.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
—MONEYBALL—Form 497 large campaign contributions filed on March 4.
ALAMEDA COUNTY
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
—Nate Miley (District 4), Livermore-Pleasanton Firefighters Local 1974 Political Action Fund Candidate, $1,000. TOTAL: $1,000.
—Ben Bartlett (District 5), Bay Area Citizens PAC, $4,000; Manraj Khosla of Valencia, $1,500; Eric Bjerkholt of Berkeley, $1,000. TOTAL: $6,500.
—Ken Berrick (District 5), Charter Public Schools PAC, $10,000; Evan Gilbert of Oakland, $2,500; Todd Plate of Escondido, $1,000. TOTAL: $13,500
SUPERIOR COURT
—Michael Johnson (Office #12), East Bay Rental Housing Association PAC, $1,000; Charles Klinedinst Oakland, $1,000. TOTAL: $2,000.
ALAMEDA
—Alameda Forward (Measure E - Alameda USD parcel tax), IBEW Local 595 Issues PAC, $2,500. TOTAL: $2,500.
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE SENATE
—East Bay Working Families for Kathryn Lybarger for State Senate 2024, Sponsored by AFSCME Local 3299 (7th State Senate), SEIU California State Council, $5,500. TOTAL: $5,500.
—Jerry McNerney (5th Senate District), UAW Region 6 Western States PAC, $2,500. TOTAL: $2,500.
—Carlos Villapudua (5th Senate District), Deliotte LLP, $3,000. TOTAL: $3,000.
STATE ASSEMBLY
—Buffy Wicks (14th Assembly District), National Vision, Inc., $11,000; E & J Gallo Winery, $5,500. TOTAL: $16,500.
—Mia Bonta (18th Assembly District), Greater Anesthesia Service PAC, $11,000; CVS Health; Including Aggregated Contributions, $3,000. TOTAL: $14,000.
—Alex Lee (24th Assembly District), California State Retirees PAC, $1,250. TOTAL: $1,250.
—IE SPENDING—Form 496 Independent Expenditure Committee (IE) spending in support and opposing candidates or ballot measures filed on March 4.
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE SENATE
—Kathryn Lybarger (7th District), AFSCME Local 3299 Independent Expenditure Committee. SUPPORT (Phone banking—$7,151). TOTAL: $7,151.
—Jerry McNerney (5th District), California Alliance, a coalition of consumer attorneys, conservationists and food and commercial workers. SUPPORT (Texts—$6,675). TOTAL: $6,675.
—Kathryn Lybarger (7th District), UC Berkeley Cooks, Custodians and Nursing Assistants for Kathryn Lybarger for State Senate 2024. SUPPORT (Literature—$3,752). TOTAL: $3,752.
