Primary trendlines

Election Mode: Fundraising and campaign analysis for East Bay State Senate races; Alameda County supervisorial races. Plus, campaign finance and spending data

ELECTION 2024

11 days to Primary Day

STATE SENATE

7TH DISTRICT

Seventh State Senate District candidates (Clockwise): Jovanka Beckles, Jesse Arreguin, Kathryn Lybarger, Sandre Swanson, and Dan Kalb.

The primary to replace state Sen. Nancy Skinner in the 7th State Senate District is all about independent expenditure committee spending. A statewide-high $5.1 million has been spent by IEs for and against three candidates in this six-person race. Labor leader Kathryn Lybarger has benefitted and been belittled by an IE backed by Uber and another funded by housing providers.

—IE SPENDING IN SUPPORT

• LYBARGER $2,483,529

• ARREGUIN $1,230,507

• BECKLES $88,114

—IE SPENDING IN OPPOSITION

• LYBARGER $1,308,886

• ARREGUIN $0

An IE funded by Lybarger’s union AFSCME Local 3299 makes up $1.6 million of the spending in support of her campaign. The expenditure was used to broadcast those pastel watercolor television ads seen by many. We’ll see after March 5 whether the major ad buy was worth it. Reaction to ad has been tepid as have the trio of non-descript half-sheet mailers.

In addition, IEs have spent $1.3 million in opposition to Lybarger and the mailers and television ads have been brutal. More is on the way. On Thursday a new IE emerged named East Bay Forward and it was immediately stocked with $600,000.

What’s notable here is that Jesse Arreguin, one of primary front runners, has made it through the primary election unscathed by bruising ads and mailers. No IE has emerged to ruffle Arreguin’s well-maintained coif.

As we’ve seen at the end of every fundraising period in this cycle, Arreguin and Lybarger have raised the most and spent the most. Jovanka Beckles, a potential dark horse in this primary, increased her fundraising and spending over the past month.

Most believe Arreguin advances to the November election. The sheer amount of spending against Lybarger and the fact nobody is attacking Arreguin, suggests that maybe she’s also headed to November and housing providers and Uber are frantically trying to block her. An Arreguin-Lybarger matchup in the fall will costs millions more. Either candidate matched up against anyone else in this field probably equates to victory for Arreguin or Lybarger.

Lybarger went on a spending spree over the past month, reducing her cash reserves to $44,000. Lybarger’s campaign going all-in to reach November. Arreguin, meanwhile, has $202,000 in the bank.

The odd $88,000 expenditure by housing providers in support of Beckles, a noted rent control advocate, could mean that she’s also in the mix.

—FUNDRAISING—Jan. 21-Feb.17

• ARREGUIN $136,060

• LYBARGER $93,123

• BECKLES $29,567

• SWANSON $20,570

• KALB $18,746

—SPENDING—Jan. 21-Feb.17

• ARREGUIN $241,920

• LYBARGER $184,504

• KALB $95,689

• BECKLES $29,895

• SWANSON $16,767

—CASH RESERVES—Jan. 21-Feb.17

• ARREGUIN $202,368

• LYBARGER $44,941

• KALB $39,599

• SWANSON $12,732

• BECKLES $3,898

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