Ranking the recalls
Up to six Alameda County elected officials could be the target of recallers; Mayor Thao backtracks on potential film/tv windfall
ELECTION 2024
RECALLS
—RECALLAPALOOZA—You can already find petitions to recall Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price at seemingly every Safeway in the East Bay. But there’s a chance up to five other local elected officials could be in the same predicament within the next six months or more.
—Ranked by how far each campaign is in the recall process, obviously, the Price recall has passed hurdles needed to get it to the signature gathering phase, which is the most expensive phase.
—The recall of state Sen. Aisha Wahab is at the noticing of intent phase. The effort to recall Sunol Glen school boardmembers Ryan Jergensen and Linda Hurley is moving toward a similar phase, and recall campaigns against Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and possibly another Oakland councilmember are rumors or merely aspirational goals.
—Let’s rank the strengths and weaknesses of each recall effort, along with its likelihood for success.
PRICE
—The recall campaign against DA Price appears organized and well-financed. Along with the negative publicity Price has dealt with since being elected in tandem with rising crime in the area, makes it a more than even-money chance of being placed on a future ballot.
—The campaign built by Save Alameda For Everyone (SAFE) is riding a wave of momentum. Voters are exhausted by the drumbeat of stories of mayhem on the streets. Placing their signature on the recall petition doesn’t seem to require much cajoling.
—It remains unknown how much money the Price recall has access to and where it’s coming from. But the early trickle of public finance reports suggest they are drawing from a deep well of money backed by real estate interests.
—Meanwhile, in the first three weeks since the recall petition was put into the wild, we’ve heard crickets from Team Price. That’s a bad sign. Although, perhaps its better to be silent if your natural inclination is to compare the recallers to Jan. 6 insurrectionists.
—BOTTOM LINE—SAFE’s campaign has a long road ahead of it, but the signs are positive that it can get the recall question on the ballot. The wildcard here is whether the county’s charter amendment on the Mar. 5 primary ballot hinders SAFE’s efforts. If a lawsuit is required to remedy the situation, resources may need to be shifted to legal costs.
JERGENSEN/HURLEY
—If the Price recall is about Alameda County’s moderate and conservative voters seeking to oust a progressive district attorney, then the situation in unincorporated Sunol is the opposite case.
—When Sunol Glen’s two conservative school boardmembers voted to allow only the U.S. and state flag to be flown over its lone campus, it ignited a firestorm among progressive Democrats and LGBT communities.
—Although Sunol Glen school boardmembers Ryan Jergensen and Linda Hurley never explicitly said the flag policy was intended to block the LGBT Pride flag from being flown, opponents said their intent was clear.
—The potential recall of Jergensen and Hurley has a strong chance of succeeding. For one big reason, Sunol is tiny, meaning the effort to get the recall question on a future ballot is much easier. Perhaps as little as a few hundred valid signatures to get the recall on the ballot.
—The Alameda County Democratic Party appears poised to put everything it’s got behind removing Jergensen and Hurley.
—But depending on whether Jergensen and Hurley can mount a strong defense, all signs show a recall is likely in Sunol.
—What could Jergensen and Hurley’s defense be? There’s only circumstantial evidence that the flag policy was an anti-LGBT move by the duo, as is suspicions they are plotting to remove the superintendent who publicly spoke out against the flag policy.
—Both school boardmembers have consistently said the flag policy is about potential legal costs associated with flying other banners. As for the superintendent, they have suggested the issue is her large employee contract.
WAHAB
—With the recall of state Sen. Aisha Wahab there’s a before and after aspect to its vigor.
—The sole reason for the recall effort against Wahab is opposition to her bill banning caste-related discrimination in the state.
—Conservative Hindus led protests in Sacramento against SB 403, which they said was actually discriminatory towards them.
—But SB 403, while it sailed through the Legislature with little opposition, the bill was ultimately vetoed this month by Gov. Gavin Newsom because he believed prohibiting caste discrimination is already covered by state law.
—The Committee to Recall Wahab raised almost $100,000 through mid-year and built a strong presence on social media, but that was before Newsom’s veto.
—According to Wahab, the recall effort was created as a bargaining chip to force her to pull the bill from consideration. If that’s true, then Newsom’s veto provided the result the recallers desired and perhaps let the air out of their drive to oust Wahab.
—Regardless, recalling Wahab would have required a herculean effort and a great deal of luck. Wahab is a progressive in a blue district that is popular and has quickly raised her profile in the capitol.
—BOTTOM LINE—This recall ultimately becomes a badge of honor for Wahab and goes nowhere.
THAO
—Earlier this year, when Recallapalooza was in the planning stages, it appeared Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao was on the same recall track as DA Pamela Price.
—Sure, Thao has made many missteps during her first year in office, but it appears those in Oakland itching to recall elected officials thought it better to focus on Price.
—As it stands today, recall chatter about Thao basically amounts to typical voter dissatisfaction that most elected officials faces.
—This can always change, especially in near future when it becomes clear where the Price recall is heading.
—BOTTOM LINE—It’s assumed that money for a Thao recall comes from the same funding sources and campaign against Price. A Thao recall, at least, based on current gripes, has no legs.
BAS
—In recent weeks, there’s been chatter in Oakland about recalling Oakland City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas.
—All the same reason listed above suggesting a Thao recall is unlikely to succeed can be applied to Bas, especially with the presence of a DA Price recall.
—However, Bas has a ready-made argument for recall. She was at the forefront of the council’s push to defund the police.
—Worse for Bas, she took the fall for the Thao administration’s inability to apply for millions in state funding to combat retail theft in Oakland.
—The same perception that Price is soft on crime in an era when the streets are in chaos could be applied to Bas.
—BOTTOM LINE—If there’s a will and sufficient funding source to recall Bas it stands a chance at succeeding.
9TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—BEATING THE RAP—For Alameda County Democrats it’s a good thing 9th State Senate District candidate Tim Grayson didn’t receive the Democratic Party’s pre-endorsement last weekend.
—They would have been upset after learning on Thursday that Grayson, who is an assemblymember in Contra Costa County’s 15th District, received a $9,000 contribution from the Peace Officers Research Association of California PAC.
—For local city and county races, Alameda County Democrats have a rule that forbids candidates from participating in their endorsement process if they have accepted campaign contributions from law enforcement entities.
—The rule was created in 2020 in an effort to curtail the power of police unions in local elections, and specifically to subdue then-Alameda County Sheriff Greg Ahern’s political power.
—The 9th State Senate District is mostly a Contra Costa County seat, but now includes San Leandro, Castro Valley and surrounding unincorporated areas in Alameda County. Grayson is joined in the current field of candidates with San Ramon Councilmember Marisol Rubio.
CITY NEWS
OAKLAND
—WALK BACK—During Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao’s state of the city address earlier this month, she offered that Oakland was leaving $80 million on the table by not encouraging a television production company to film in the city.
—On the current episode of the East Bay Insiders Podcast, we questioned the large amount of revenue produced by television shows like “Blindspotting.” Turns out the number was significantly inflated.
—The figure is more like $8 million in revenue to the city, Thao told KCBS on Tuesday.
—Curiously, Thao raised the profile of “Blindspotting” during her state of the city despite the show being cancelled by Starz last month.
HAYWARD
—PAY RAISE PAUSE—A proposal to increase the Hayward City Council’s pay was not heard on Tuesday night. Earlier agenda items ran long and Hayward Mark Salinas was especially chatty, leading the item to be continued to the Nov. 7 council meeting.
