Reversal of fortune

Fremont to offer a statement on Gaza; More surveillance cameras are coming to Hayward; Liquor lease deals at Alameda Point; Primary Election update

Nikki Fortunato Bas and John Bauters advanced to the November runoff to replace Alameda County Supervisor Keith Carson in District 5.

—STALKING HORSE—Two years ago, Oakland Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan cruised to victory in the Alameda County Board of Supervisors District 3 primary. Kaplan topped Lena Tam by nearly 13 points, but wound up losing the General Election in a rematch with Tam by four points.

—This scenario could very likely occur again this November in the District 5 supervisorial matchup between Oakland Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas and Emeryville Councilmember John Bauters. Coincidentally, Bas is carrying a 13-point advantage over Bauters into the fall campaign.

—The main reason for Kaplan’s defeat was a focus by Tam and Independent Expenditure Committees on public safety in Oakland. Kaplan had no answer for the decline of public safety and telling by Bas’ avoidance of the subject in the primary, neither will she.

—By and large Bas was never called out for her role in Oakland’s public safety issues during the primary. Her opponents, except for one, were reticent to focus too sharply on crime.

—Therefore, Bas got away from any type of probing questions about crime in Oakland and her advocacy for the “Defund the Police” movement. We don’t know if she acknowledges there’s even a problem with public safety in Oakland?

—Bas won’t be able to avoid the question over the next seven months. It’s too big of an Achilles Heel, and Bauters is too smart and too ambitious not to exploit it.

—However, seven months is a long time in politics. Gov. Gavin Newsom may have already solved Oakland’s public safety problems all on his own by the end of summer. In that case, all bets are off.

—Nevertheless, keep an eye out for an IE that’s being laying in the weeds named “Bauters for a Safer East Bay.” It’s been slowly raising cash, including $10,000 last month from PG&E, and $5,000 from the Alameda County Firefighters Local 55.

—There’s plenty of recent precedent for overturning a large primary deficit in the fall. Before Tam turned a primary defeat into victory in November, David Haubert won his District 1 supervisorial seat in 2020 after losing the primary to Vinnie Bacon. If there’s a primary result that will be reversed in November, it’s definitely this one in District 5.

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