Setting the table for Election Night
All angles covered for tonight's Election Night in the East Bay
ELECTION 2022
Days until the 2024 March Primary: 483.
—Here are the storylines to watch tonight:
OAKLAND
—A NEW MAYOR—It took until the last three weeks of the campaign, but Oakland’s mayoral race got really hot. Most believe Oakland’s next mayor will either be Sheng Thao or Loren Taylor. Ignacio De La Fuente, through an IE’s big bucks and strong messaging by his campaign, has become a player in this race. SEIU Local 1021 has made one of its biggest bets ever on getting Thao elected. If it doesn’t happen, questions will be raised about the union’s strategy. Especially, if Taylor, someone perceived as pro-labor, wins. Big unknown is how will second, third, and maybe fourth-place votes, be distributed? Does the lion’s share go to Thao or Taylor? Is De La Fuente the kingmaker?
—COUNCIL CHAOS?—Will Oakland City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas handily win her District 2 seat despite a noticeable uptick of spending in the past two weeks? The District 4 and 6 seat being vacated by Thao and Taylor have appeared unsettled to some observers. Janani Ramachandran is the D4 favorite, but business interests are still spending in support of Nenna Joiner. In D6, Kevin Jenkins remains the favorite, but some are still spooked by the poll last month showing perennial Oakland candidate Nancy Sidebotham narrowly leading.
ALAMEDA COUNTY
—NIGHT KAP—Will Rebecca Kaplan make the move across town from Oakland City Hall to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors with a victory over runoff opponent Lena Tam? Most say yes. What will be the fallout for some who believe the District 3 seat left open after the death of Wilma Chan should have been an Asian American appointee? If elected, keep an eye on how Kaplan interacts with the county supervisors. Kaplan likely represents the beginning of the end for this generation(s) of Alameda County supervisors.
—VERDICT—Will Alameda County’s rousing election last June of a new sheriff be followed tonight with a reform-minded candidate leading the district attorney’s office? The race between Pamela Price, who won the primary, and Terry Wiley is expected to be close. Either way, Alameda County will elect its first Black DA. Does Price build upon her 16-point primary victory or did Wiley’s campaign to undermine Price’s progressive policies in a time of rising concerns about crime reverse the tide?
—OFF THE BUS—AC Transit’s Board of Directors could see significant change on Tuesday night. At-large member Joel Young is in the fight of his life against Alfred Twu, while appointed member Murphy McCalley is facing Barisha Spriggs. An open seat pits Sarah Syed against Stewart Chen. Wins by Twu, Spriggs, and Syed would make the board significantly younger and more progressive.
MAYORS
—WELCOME—Five Alameda County cities will have new mayors after Election Night: Oakland, San Leandro, Newark, Livermore, and Hayward.
—Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf is termed out after eight years in office. Sheng Thao and Loren Taylor are favorites to replace Schaaf. Similarly in San Leandro, Mayor Pauline Russo Cutter is termed out. A close three-way race is expected in San Leandro.
—If things go a certain way in Livermore, the next mayor will not exactly be new. John Marchand, a former Livermore mayor who skipped a term to return this year, is facing Mony Nop, who lost the 2020 mayoral election.
—Hayward’s next mayor is already basically signed and delivered. Hayward Councilmember Mark Salinas is running unopposed for the open seat being vacated by the retiring Mayor Barbara Halliday.
—Al Nagy, Alameda County’s largest-serving mayor is retiring. Newark Councilmember Michael Hannon is the favorite to replace him. If elected, Hannon would be a rarity in this county—a Republican mayor.
APPOINTMENT PROCESS ON TAP
—ELECTION 2022.1—Tuesday’s elections could trigger the appointment process in a number of Alameda County cities. An appointment is guaranteed for the Hayward City Council. As noted, Mark Salinas will become mayor after running unopposed for the open seat. His council term has two years remaining.
—The big consolation prize in Oakland’s competitive elections could be an appointment to fill Oakland At-Large Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan’s remaining two years of her term. That’s if Kaplan wins today’s Alameda County Board of Supervisors race in District 3.
—If Fremont Mayor Lily Mei wins the 10th State Senate District seat on Tuesday night, the Fremont City Council will appoint her replacement. Jockeying for the position, if it opens up, commenced long ago. When an mayoral appointment was made by the Fremont City Council in 2011 to replace Bob Wasserman, who passed away in office, they chose a caretaker who later did not run for a full four years.
—A win by San Leandro Councilmember Bryan Azevedo would have spur an appointment to his District 4 seat. Depending on the results of Tuesday’s night council races, which could add another pro-renter to the council, Azevedo’s replacement could presumably add to the growing bloc of councilmembers.
ALL-IN CANDIDATES
—Most politicians are by nature extremely cautious, especially with their careers. But these four candidates threw caution to the wind and ran this November without a safety net.
—Oakland Councilmembers Sheng Thao and Loren Taylor; Dublin Councilmember Shawn Kumagai; and Hayward Councilmember Aisha Wahab would have all easily won re-election to their city council seats this fall.
—Instead, either Thao or Taylor will be the mayor of Oakland, Kumagai could be an assemblymember, and Wahab a state senator. If they lose tonight, it’s back to the private sector, for the time being.
FUN FACTS
—The last two Oakland mayors have been Oakland City Council’s District 4 representatives. Jean Quan in 2010, and Libby Schaaf in 2014, 2018. District 4 Councilmember Sheng Thao would make it three in row.
—The last Black mayor in Alameda County was Alameda’s Marie Gilmore, whose re-election was upended by Trish Herrera Spencer. On Election Night, Alameda County could be poised to elected two Black mayors. Loren Taylor in Oakland and Lee Thomas in San Leandro.
—Incumbent Alameda mayors have lost the last two elections. Trish Herrera Spencer upset incumbent Mayor Marie Gilmore in 2014, and then-Councilmember Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft defeated incumbent Mayor Spencer in 2018. Ashcraft and Spencer are meeting in a rematch tonight.
—A candidate named Barack Obama Shaw is running for Alameda mayor.
—Mindy Pechenuk, the Republican candidate opposing Assemblymember Mia Bonta in the 18th Assembly District, advanced from the June primary to today’s General Election with just 31 votes. Bonta ran unopposed last June. Pechenuk was the only qualified write-in candidate in the race.
—Stephen Slauson, the Republican facing Rep. Barbara Lee in the new 12th Congressional District, has been defeated in every election since 2018, including four losses at the hands of then-Assemblymember Rob Bonta, and another last year to his wife, Mia Bonta.
LEGISLATIVE RACES
—See Monday’s newsletter for the analysis.
CENTRAL ALAMEDA COUNTY
—’DRO BIZ—San Leandro’s mayoral race is believed to be a three-way toss-up among Bryan Azevedo, Lee Thomas, and Juan Gonzalez. Will ranked-choice voting in the four-candidate race be the decider? Two open seats on the San Leandro City Council will be decided tonight. In District 1, all eyes will be on whether Celina Reynes, a police reformer and pro-renters candidate. Reynes’ win could solidify a progressive bent to the council next year, along with an expected push for rent stabilization.
—HAYSTACK—Hayward City Council will have two new members, and later a third, through the appointment to fill-out future Mayor-elect Mark Salinas’ term. Planning Commissioners Julie Roche and Daniel Goldstein are favorites, but keep an eye on progressive George Syrop.
TRI-CITIES
—U.C.ING THIS?—Allegations of sign-stealing and suggestions that Union City Mayor Carol Dutra-Vernacci was behind it have highlighted a contentious race for three council seats. An us-versus-them slate of candidates has emerged with Councilmember Jaime Patino, Jeff Wang, and Vipan Bajwa teaming up against the Dutra-backed slate of Chuck Kennedy, Lee Guio, and Scott Sakakihara.
—ALL EYES ON FUSD—Fremont’s most important race is not the three contests for the City Council, but its lone school board race between incumbent school boardmember Dianne Jones and upstart Jennifer Kavouniaris, whose right-wing platform and propensity for anti-LGBT comments has roiled the city’s politics. Council-side, District 1 will elect a new councilmember. Desrie Campbell and Robert Daulton are favorites, along with a spirited campaign to unseat District 3 Councilmember Jenny Kassan. Meanwhile, District 4 Councilmember Yang Shao is likely headed to re-election.
—NEW ERA—Newark will elect a new mayor tonight and two at-large councilmembers. The favorites are Councilmember Mike Bucci and school boardmember Terrence Grindall.
TRI-VALLEY
—HIGH-PRICED WINES—Livermore has been the proxy for the battle between housing growth and slow-to-no growth. Big money has poured into not just the mayoral race, but races for two council seats. An outside interest has financed a heavily-funded IE in support of mayoral candidate Mony Nop. Will it be enough to stop the return of John Marchand to the mayor’s office.? If it doesn’t pan out for Nop, San Francisco philanthropist Lyna Lam will be one of this election’s biggest losers. Two strongly-contested council races have also seen IE money. District 1 pits Evan Branning against Carol Wahrer, and Mel Chiong against Ben Barrientos.
—DEM ACTION—Pleasanton Mayor Karla Brown is running unopposed n perhaps Alameda County’s most conservative city council. The District 1 council race is an intriguing race between Jeff Nibert, a member of the Alameda County Democratic Central Committee, and Dean Wallace, an aide to Assemblymember Buffy Wicks, who was criticized by local Dems for accepting support from law enforcement. District 2 Councilmember Julie Testa is facing competition from Jamie Yee and Joel Liu.
THREE’S A CROWD—Next door in Dublin, Mayor Melissa Hernandez is also running unopposed. In the council race for two at-large seats, one of the three candidates among Councilmember Jean Josey, Lynna Lan Tien Nguyen Do, and Kashef Qaadri, will not be happy after tonight.
—MONEYBALL—Below is Form 497 campaign contributions ($1,000 or more) filed Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. *-local city campaign contribution limit.
COUNTY
ALAMEDA COUNTY DISTRICT ATTORNEY
—Terry Wiley (Alameda County District Attorney), Premier Nissan of Fremont, $2,500; DRIVE Committee, $2,000; John Sullivan of Castro Valley, $1,000; Fremont Firefighters Local 1689 PAC, $1,000.
ALAMEDA COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
—Lena Tam (Alameda County Board of Supervisors-Dist. 3), Lena Tam, $10,000.
AC TRANSIT BOARD OF DIRECTORS
—Joel Young (AC Transit Board of Directors-At-Large), Deputy Sheriffs Association of Alameda County PAC, $1,500; District Council of Iron Workers Political Action League, $1,000; IBEW Local 595 PAC Small Contributor Committee, $1,000.
STATE LEGISLATURE
10TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—Aisha Wahab (10th State Senate District), DRIVE Federal Committee, $2,500; Glen Dake, $1,000.
—Lily Mei (10th State Senate District), United Contractors PAC, $4,900; Bing Zhao, $4,900; Caterpillar Inc. Political Action Committee, $2,000; Zurich American Insurance Company, $3,000; LeadingAge California PAC, $1,500; Asian American Forward, $1,000; Charter Public Schools PAC.
20TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—Shawn Kumagai (20th Assembly District), Zurich American Insurance Company, $4,900.