State senate race sees arrival of big-time IE spending

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Jesse Arreguin and Kathryn Lybarger are going to headlong toward a very expensive primary and, maybe, general election in the 7th State Senate District.

ELECTION 2024

25 days to Primary Day

7TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT

—UBER CANDIDATE—Independent Expenditure Committees spent a whopping $1.4 million on Thursday alone to support and oppose 7th State Senate District candidates Jesse Arreguin and Kathryn Lybarger.

—Both candidates draw strong support from powerful unions. The dynamic made it likely this primary race and potentially a top two Dem-on-Dem rematch in November would be a proxy for well-financed IEs to spend wildly.

—The tally from Thursday, however, shows the intra-party proxy war is benefitting Arreguin way more than Lybarger.

—Of the five large expenditures for television and web ads; mailers; and polling, three supported Arreguin’s campaign. Two others opposed Lybarger’s campaign.

—The largest expenditure was by Uber, which spent $770,000 for a television and web ad buy to oppose Lybarger’s campaign.

—In addition, Uber is also paying more than $250,000 for a television and web ad campaign in support of Arreguin’s campaign.

—Essentially, Uber spent more than $1 million to oppose Lybarger and support her opponent.

—Independent Expenditure Committees can raise unlimited amounts of money, but an IEs activities cannot be coordinated with the campaign they are supporting.

—The flood of IE money flowing to Arreguin’s benefit is not surprising. It’s certainly a response to a pair of IEs backed by AFSCME Local 3299 that has amassed a cache of $2 million to spend in support of Lybarger.

—So, heads up! Your television, laptop and mailbox are about to be overrun by messages for and against Arreguin and Lybarger over the next three weeks.

SD7 IE SPENDING ON THURSDAY

—Jesse Arreguin (7th District), Housing Providers for Responsible Solutions. SUPPORT (Online Ad—$150,924; Research—$10,007, Polling—$209 ). TOTAL: $161,140.

—Kathryn Lybarger (7th District), Housing Providers for Responsible Solutions. OPPOSE (Mailer—$48,880; Research—$7,507, Polling—$209 ). TOTAL: $56,598.

—Jesse Arreguin (7th District), Uber Innovations PAC. SUPPORT (TV/Web Ads—$256,878; Research—$9,000, Polling—$12,250 ). TOTAL: $278,128.

—Kathryn Lybarger (7th District), Uber Innovations PAC. OPPOSE (TV/Web Ads—$770,635; Research—$9,000, Polling—$36,750 ). TOTAL: $816,385.

—Jesse Arreguin (7th District), Tomorrow California PAC, sponsored by correctional peace officers and housing industry organizations, energy and transportation provider. SUPPORT (Mailer—$84,992; Research—$4,200). TOTAL: $89,192.

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—Election 2024 in-depth campaign previews start on Monday with the 7th State Senate District.